SAT 19:00 ET|CENTENNIAL BANK STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP20|O/U57.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
37
10-3
54
76
25
51%
77
33
39.3
-1600
-21.0
HOME
3
6-7
34
14
23
18%
36
28
18.3
+800
+21.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALMEM37—ARST3
CLOSED MEM -21.0TOTAL 57.5MEM COVERED · 40 POINTS · UNDER
MEM
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
ARST
MEM
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
ARST
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 2 FIELD n=47
MARKET
TOTAL57.5
SPREADMEM -21.0
IMPLIED — MEM39.3
IMPLIED — ARST18.3
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
56FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT7 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 7 positions on a 47-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
MEMRECORD MATCHES
9-3ACTUALvs8.1-3.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+10.7
MEMPHIS won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ARSTRECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs5.2-6.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-3.4
ARKANSAS STATE won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERMEMPHISARKANSAS STATE2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
WR/TE77%Caden PrieskornPORTAL · OLE MISS · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEddie LewisPORTAL · SOUTH CAROLINA · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJavon IvoryPORTAL · SOUTH ALABAMA · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB66%Xavier CullensLB · 31% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTyler MurrayLB · 29% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB56%Quindell JohnsonDB · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSylvonta OliverDB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJosh HastingsPORTAL · UT MARTIN · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL43%Matt DaleOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAustin MyersOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrackston AlfordOL · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL42%Wardalis DucksworthDL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCam JacksonPORTAL · FLORIDA · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMeonta KimbroughDL · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB34%Asa MartinPORTAL · TROY · 34% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
QB1%Ryan GloverQB · 1% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
WR/TEAustin Smith · PORTAL ★3 · COLORADOPARTIAL
LBKarmelo Overton · SIGNEE ★3Isaiah Thomison · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBTyrin Taylor · PORTAL ★3 · COLORADOJaylen Johnson · PORTAL ★3 · OHIO STATEMarJayvious Moss · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLMarcus Henderson · PORTAL ★4 · ARKANSASCullen Montgomery · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMAFalentha Carswell · PORTAL ★3 · OLE MISS3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLAdarious Jones · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS A&MJarra Anderson · SIGNEE ★3Cevan Edwards · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBKe'Travion Hargrove · PORTAL ★4 · MISSISSIPPI STATEWalter Samuel · SIGNEE ★3Raydrian McKneely · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
QBHarris Boyd · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · MEMPHIS
CARRIED COMPOSITE
46.325 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
50.342 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
43.925 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB6161529952 OF 5 GRADED
RB63632133105 OF 10 GRADED
WR/TE535362602213 OF 22 GRADED
OL646450631814 OF 18 GRADED
DL393963481814 OF 18 GRADED
LB505040611410 OF 14 GRADED
DB434360442315 OF 23 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE54th54
BLUE-CHIP RATIO17%67
RECRUITING CLASS#60 · 1/19 BC56
CLASS RANK TREND-14 · 3 CYCLES22
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 19 IN / 26 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 4th YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX34%38
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
ARSTBUTCH JONES3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7272
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3131
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
MEMRYAN SILVERFIELD4TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8383
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6262
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESMEM OFFENSEARST OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBMEMPHIS OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEARKANSAS STATE DEFENSE MEM QUARTERBACKSn=51% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARST DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 59 PLAYERS18% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLMEMPHIS OFFENSEFRONT-7ARKANSAS STATE DEFENSE MEM OFFENSIVE LINEn=1837% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARST FRONT-7n=39 · 2 ROOMS19% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBMEMPHIS OFFENSEFRONT-7ARKANSAS STATE DEFENSE MEM RUNNING BACKSn=1067% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARST FRONT-72 ROOMS · 39 PLAYERS18% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554872%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEMEMPHIS OFFENSESECONDARYARKANSAS STATE DEFENSE MEM PASS CATCHERSn=2240% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARST SECONDARYn=20 · 1 ROOM16% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
MEM
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ARST
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−6
−6
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
MEM
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ARST
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
MEM
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ARST
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS53.8%
60.9%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS78.8%
66.8%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.7%
0.7%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = MEM, ORANGE = ARST) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE