SAT 19:30 ET|DAVIS WADE STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP10|O/U60.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
24
10-3
70
91
71
85%
55
55
25.5
+315
+9.0
HOME
31
5-7
80
17
81
58%
15
83
34.5
-420
-9.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALARIZ24—MSST31
CLOSED MSST -9.0TOTAL 60.0ARIZ COVERED · 55 POINTS · UNDER
ARIZ
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
MSST
ARIZ
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
MSST
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 2 FIELD n=47
MARKET
TOTAL60.0
SPREADMSST -9.0
IMPLIED — ARIZ25.5
IMPLIED — MSST34.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
34FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT34 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 34 positions on a 47-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
ARIZRECORD MATCHES
9-3ACTUALvs9.2-2.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+13.5
ARIZONA won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
MSSTRECORD MATCHES
5-7ACTUALvs4.6-7.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-4.8
MISSISSIPPI STATE won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERARIZONAMISSISSIPPI STATE2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DL75%Jalen HarrisDL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONHunter EcholsDL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKyon BarrsPORTAL · USC · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB59%Jerry Roberts Jr.PORTAL · MASSACHUSETTS · 41% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKolbe CagePORTAL · SOUTHERN MISS · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB58%Christian YoungS · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChristian Roland-WallacePORTAL · USC · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaxen TurnerPORTAL · UNLV · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL33%Paiton FearsOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJosh DonovanOL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE29%Dorian SingerPORTAL · USC · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB1%Drake AndersonPORTAL · AKRON · <1% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
QB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DLBill Norton · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIATaylor Upshaw · PORTAL ★3 · COLORADOTyler Manoa · PORTAL ★3 · UCLA1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
LBJustin Flowe · PORTAL ★4 · OREGONDaniel Heimuli · PORTAL ★3 · WASHINGTONOrin Patu · PORTAL ★3 · CALIFORNIA2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBGenesis Smith · SIGNEE ★3Canyon Moses · SIGNEE ★3Emmanuel Karnley · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
OLRaymond Pulido · SIGNEE ★4Elijha Payne · SIGNEE ★3Rhino Tapa'atoutai · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TEMontana Lemonious-Craig · PORTAL ★4 · COLORADOMalachi Riley · SIGNEE ★3Devin Hyatt · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBBrandon Johnson · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
QBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · ARIZONA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
50.540 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
77.895 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
35.710 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB73737710042 OF 4 GRADED
RB77776910065 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE727261792110 OF 21 GRADED
OL616159781610 OF 16 GRADED
DL606055521712 OF 17 GRADED
LB64646648179 OF 17 GRADED
DB565670842215 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE70th70
BLUE-CHIP RATIO18%68
RECRUITING CLASS#40 · 3/27 BC71
CLASS RANK TREND+35 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 8 IN / 26 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX39%65
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
MSSTZACH ARNETTFIRST SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3030
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4040
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
ARIZJEDD FISCH3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9191
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3535
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESARIZ OFFENSEMSST OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBARIZONA OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEMISSISSIPPI STATE DEFENSE ARIZ QUARTERBACKSn=40% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MSST DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 51 PLAYERS9% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLARIZONA OFFENSEFRONT-7MISSISSIPPI STATE DEFENSE ARIZ OFFENSIVE LINEn=1622% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MSST FRONT-7n=28 · 2 ROOMS6% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBARIZONA OFFENSEFRONT-7MISSISSIPPI STATE DEFENSE ARIZ RUNNING BACKSn=60% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MSST FRONT-72 ROOMS · 28 PLAYERS6% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555890%25%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEARIZONA OFFENSESECONDARYMISSISSIPPI STATE DEFENSE ARIZ PASS CATCHERSn=2121% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MSST SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM11% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
ARIZ
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MSST
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−18
+26
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
ARIZ
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MSST
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
ARIZ
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MSST
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS51.8%
58.6%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS75.7%
63.8%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE2.0%
0.7%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = ARIZ, ORANGE = MSST) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE