SAT 12:00 ET|UB STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP1|O/U54.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
55
13-1
9
92
20
45%
77
2
28.5
-175
-3.0
HOME
27
3-9
8
8
45
57%
84
11
25.5
+150
+3.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALLIB55—BUF27
CLOSED LIB -3.0TOTAL 54.0LIB COVERED · 82 POINTS · OVER
LIB
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
BUF
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 3 FIELD n=54
MARKET
TOTAL54.0
SPREADLIB -3.0
IMPLIED — LIB28.5
IMPLIED — BUF25.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
64FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT12 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 12 positions on a 54-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
LIBRECORD OVERSTATES
13-0ACTUALvs10.4-2.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+2.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+18.1
LIBERTY won 13 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 10.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
BUFRECORD UNDERSTATES
3-9ACTUALvs4.1-7.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-6.5
BUFFALO won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERLIBERTYBUFFALO2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB95%Shedro LouisPORTAL · TULANE · 44% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDae Dae HunterRB · 39% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONT.J. GreenRB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE65%Jerome JacksonTE · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDemario DouglasWR · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCaleb SneadWR · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL60%Durrell JohnsonDE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDennis OsagiedeDL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTreShaun ClarkDE · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB58%Robert RahimiS · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJavon ScruggsS · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChris MegginsonPORTAL · SMU · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB53%Ahmad WalkerPORTAL · SMU · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMike Smith Jr.PORTAL · BAYLOR · 26% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB3%Charlie BrewerQB · 3% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
OL3%Reggie YoungPORTAL · COLORADO · 3% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBQuinton Cooley · PORTAL ★3 · WAKE FORESTJames Jointer · PORTAL ★3 · ARKANSASREFILLED
WR/TEReese Smith · PORTAL ★3 · WEST VIRGINIAVictor Jones Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · NEBRASKAErrol Rogers · PORTAL ★3 · LOUISIANA1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DLGrey Carroll · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIA TECHTJ Bush Jr. · SIGNEE ★3Larry Jones III · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBJoshua Wiggins · PORTAL ★3 · COLORADOJamal Miles · SIGNEE ★3Christian Bodnar · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
LBBryson Jennings · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH CAROLINAChike Nwankwo · PORTAL ★2 · ABILENE CHRISTIANOlan Robinson · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
QBTrey Lowe III · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTHERN MISSReese Mooney · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
OLJack Tucker · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS TECHJordan White · PORTAL ★3 · WEST VIRGINIAXavior Gray · PORTAL ★2 · AKRONINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · LIBERTY
CARRIED COMPOSITE
43.517 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
54.253 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
37.013 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB6969889865 OF 6 GRADED
RB6363472107 OF 10 GRADED
WR/TE535336792419 OF 24 GRADED
OL575759191713 OF 17 GRADED
DL434356542116 OF 21 GRADED
LB38381570108 OF 10 GRADED
DB474751822218 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE9th9
BLUE-CHIP RATIO4%26
RECRUITING CLASS#111 · 0/14 BC17
CLASS RANK TREND0 · 3 CYCLES50
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 13 IN / 14 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
DEV TRANSITION MIX30%24
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
BUFMAURICE LINGUIST3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5353
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8686
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
LIBJAMEY CHADWELLFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
77
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6969
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESLIB OFFENSEBUF OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBLIBERTY OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEBUFFALO DEFENSE LIB QUARTERBACKSn=62% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BUF DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 49 PLAYERS36% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLLIBERTY OFFENSEFRONT-7BUFFALO DEFENSE LIB OFFENSIVE LINEn=1781% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BUF FRONT-7n=26 · 2 ROOMS32% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBLIBERTY OFFENSEFRONT-7BUFFALO DEFENSE LIB RUNNING BACKSn=1098% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BUF FRONT-72 ROOMS · 26 PLAYERS34% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.553584%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TELIBERTY OFFENSESECONDARYBUFFALO DEFENSE LIB PASS CATCHERSn=2421% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BUF SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM39% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
LIB
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BUF
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−70
−6
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
LIB
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BUF
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
LIB
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BUF
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS73.1%
55.8%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS48.1%
63.7%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.8%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = LIB, ORANGE = BUF) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE