SAT 12:00 ET|MEMORIAL STADIUM (CHAMPAIGN, IL)CONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP36|O/U47.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
30
10-3
91
72
98
43%
86
58
30.8
-700
-14.0
HOME
13
5-7
55
61
29
32%
60
48
16.8
+475
+14.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALPSU30—ILL13
CLOSED PSU -14.0TOTAL 47.5PSU COVERED · 43 POINTS · UNDER
PSU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
ILL
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 3 FIELD n=54
MARKET
TOTAL47.5
SPREADPSU -14.0
IMPLIED — PSU30.8
IMPLIED — ILL16.8
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
53FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT15 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 15 positions on a 54-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
PSURECORD UNDERSTATES
10-2ACTUALvs11.3-0.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+25.8
PENN STATE won 10 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 11.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ILLRECORD MATCHES
5-7ACTUALvs4.7-7.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-4.9
ILLINOIS won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERPENN STATEILLINOIS2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB85%Sean CliffordQB · 83% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE47%Brenton StrangeTE · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMitchell TinsleyWR · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONParker WashingtonWR · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB35%Ji'Ayir BrownS · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJoey Porter Jr.CB · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarquis WilsonPORTAL · PURDUE · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL33%Juice ScruggsOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBryce EffnerOL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB29%Jonathan SutherlandLB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL21%PJ MustipherDT · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNick TarburtonDE · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB7%Keyvone LeePORTAL · MISSISSIPPI STATE · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBJaxon Smolik · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TEDante Cephas · PORTAL ★4 · KENT STATEMalik McClain · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA STATEAndrew Rappleyea · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBKing Mack · SIGNEE ★4DaKaari Nelson · SIGNEE ★4Elliot Washington II · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLJ'ven Williams · SIGNEE ★4Alex Birchmeier · SIGNEE ★4Chimdy Onoh · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
LBTony Rojas · SIGNEE ★4Kaveion Keys · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
DLJameial Lyons · SIGNEE ★4Ta'Mere Robinson · SIGNEE ★4Joseph Mupoyi · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBTrey Potts · PORTAL ★3 · MINNESOTALondon Montgomery · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · PENN STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
64.385 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
60.869 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
66.386 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB6464999452 OF 5 GRADED
RB5959969285 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE494983862415 OF 24 GRADED
OL646486972213 OF 22 GRADED
DL767691972316 OF 23 GRADED
LB76768991129 OF 12 GRADED
DB555581912015 OF 20 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE91st91
BLUE-CHIP RATIO59%94
RECRUITING CLASS#14 · 18/24 BC90
CLASS RANK TREND+7 · 3 CYCLES64
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-4 · 6 IN / 14 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 8th YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX43%83
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
ILLBRET BIELEMA3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5858
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4444
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
PSUJAMES FRANKLIN8TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5555
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7777
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESPSU OFFENSEILL OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBPENN STATE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEILLINOIS DEFENSE PSU QUARTERBACKSn=56% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ILL DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 56 PLAYERS24% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLPENN STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7ILLINOIS DEFENSE PSU OFFENSIVE LINEn=223% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ILL FRONT-7n=31 · 2 ROOMS14% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBPENN STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7ILLINOIS DEFENSE PSU RUNNING BACKSn=88% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ILL FRONT-72 ROOMS · 31 PLAYERS13% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.553876%0%LINEBACKERSLB
0.4539100%6%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEPENN STATE OFFENSESECONDARYILLINOIS DEFENSE PSU PASS CATCHERSn=2414% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ILL SECONDARYn=25 · 1 ROOM33% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
PSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ILL
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−6
+9
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
PSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ILL
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
PSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ILL
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS61.7%
51.3%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS66.1%
73.7%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.4%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = PSU, ORANGE = ILL) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE