THU 19:30 ET|BROOKS STADIUM (SC)CONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP1|O/U63.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
30
7-6
37
44
21
69%
55
55
28.3
+200
+6.5
HOME
17
8-5
39
55
27
92%
57
43
34.8
-240
-6.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALGAST30—CCU17
CLOSED CCU -6.5TOTAL 63.0GAST COVERED · 47 POINTS · UNDER
GAST
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
CCU
GAST
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
CCU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 4 FIELD n=63
MARKET
TOTAL63.0
SPREADCCU -6.5
IMPLIED — GAST28.3
IMPLIED — CCU34.8
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
62FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT10 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 10 positions on a 63-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
GASTRECORD OVERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs4.8-7.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-5.0
GEORGIA STATE won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
CCURECORD MATCHES
7-5ACTUALvs6.9-5.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+3.3
COASTAL CAROLINA won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERGEORGIA STATECOASTAL CAROLINA2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
OL70%Pat BartlettG · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMalik SumterC · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBryson BroadwayPORTAL · GEORGIA SOUTHERN · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL69%Thomas GorePORTAL · MIAMI · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJamil MuhammadPORTAL · USC · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJeff ClarkPORTAL · LOUISVILLE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB67%Tucker GreggRB · 41% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJamyest WilliamsRB · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB63%Antavious LanePORTAL · NORTH CAROLINA · 28% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONQuavian WhiteCB · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaylon JonesCB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE28%Jamari ThrashPORTAL · LOUISVILLE · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB18%Jacorey CrawfordLB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
OLColin Henrich · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH CAROLINATrevor Timmons · PORTAL ★2 · CHARLOTTETyden Ferris · PORTAL ★2 · CENTRAL MICHIGAN1 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
DLHenry Bryant · PORTAL ★3 · LOUISVILLECorey Warren · PORTAL ★2 · COASTAL CAROLINAKevin Swint · PORTAL ★4 · CLEMSON2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBFreddie Brock · PORTAL ★3 · MAINEREFILLED
DBMarlon McClendon · SIGNEE ★3Cam Marshall · SIGNEE ★3Jaylen Jones · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TEPeter Kikwata · PORTAL ★3 · OLD DOMINIONDarius Bush · PORTAL ★2 · UCONNRico Arnold · PORTAL ★2 · MASSACHUSETTS1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
LBTavian Brown · PORTAL ★2 · COLORADO STATEJosiah Robinson · PORTAL ★3 · COASTAL CAROLINAAli Abdul-Hakeem · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
QBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · GEORGIA STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
46.426 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
40.220 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
50.039 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB70703710042 OF 4 GRADED
RB4848769174 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE545440811914 OF 19 GRADED
OL545431721410 OF 14 GRADED
DL575731481210 OF 12 GRADED
LB525232751613 OF 16 GRADED
DB353537592214 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE37th37
BLUE-CHIP RATIO2%12
RECRUITING CLASS#116 · 0/14 BC14
CLASS RANK TREND-14 · 3 CYCLES22
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 19 IN / 20 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 7th YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX49%95
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
CCUTIM BECKFIRST SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
2424
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3838
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
GASTSHAWN ELLIOTT7TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
77
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4242
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESGAST OFFENSECCU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBGEORGIA STATE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSECOASTAL CAROLINA DEFENSE GAST QUARTERBACKSn=40% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CCU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 54 PLAYERS53% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLGEORGIA STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7COASTAL CAROLINA DEFENSE GAST OFFENSIVE LINEn=1428% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CCU FRONT-7n=31 · 2 ROOMS34% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBGEORGIA STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7COASTAL CAROLINA DEFENSE GAST RUNNING BACKSn=79% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CCU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 31 PLAYERS33% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.553063%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEGEORGIA STATE OFFENSESECONDARYCOASTAL CAROLINA DEFENSE GAST PASS CATCHERSn=1919% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CCU SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM69% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
GAST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CCU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+2
−13
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
GAST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CCU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
GAST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CCU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS61.1%
54.5%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS57.7%
59.4%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.1%
0.4%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = GAST, ORANGE = CCU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE