FRI 20:00 ET|MEMORIAL STADIUM (CHAMPAIGN, IL)CONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP31|O/U41.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
20
5-7
85
32
83
14%
5
55
19.3
+145
+3.0
HOME
7
5-7
55
61
29
32%
60
61
22.3
-170
-3.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALNEB20—ILL7
CLOSED ILL -3.0TOTAL 41.5NEB COVERED · 27 POINTS · UNDER
NEB
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
ILL
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 6 FIELD n=49
MARKET
TOTAL41.5
SPREADILL -3.0
IMPLIED — NEB19.3
IMPLIED — ILL22.3
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
48FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT18 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 18 positions on a 49-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
NEBRECORD MATCHES
5-7ACTUALvs5.9-6.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-5
POINT MARGIN / GAME-0.3
NEBRASKA won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ILLRECORD MATCHES
5-7ACTUALvs4.7-7.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-4.9
ILLINOIS won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERNEBRASKAILLINOIS2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB84%Casey ThompsonPORTAL · FLORIDA ATLANTIC · 78% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLogan SmothersPORTAL · JACKSONVILLE STATE · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL76%Garrett NelsonDE · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCaleb TannorDE · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONColton FeistDL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE73%Travis VokolekTE · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTrey PalmerWR · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChancellor BrewingtonTE · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION8 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB43%Chris KolarevicRB · 31% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAjay AllenPORTAL · MIAMI · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB41%Ernest HausmannPORTAL · MICHIGAN · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEteva Mauga-ClementsLB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
OL39%Trent HixsonOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBroc BandoOL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB24%Myles FarmerPORTAL · SYRACUSE · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBJeff Sims · PORTAL ★4 · GEORGIA TECHREFILLED
DLMJ Sherman · PORTAL ★4 · GEORGIAElijah Jeudy · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS A&MPrincewill Umanmielen · SIGNEE ★45 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEArik Gilbert · PORTAL ★4 · GEORGIABilly Kemp · PORTAL ★3 · VIRGINIAMalachi Coleman · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
LBEric Fields · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLJacob Hood · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIABen Scott · PORTAL ★3 · ARIZONA STATEGunnar Gottula · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DBCorey Collier · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDAEthan Nation · SIGNEE ★3Rahmir Stewart · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · NEBRASKA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
46.024 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
36.616 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
50.642 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB5353645642 OF 4 GRADED
RB45454556147 OF 14 GRADED
WR/TE373769492916 OF 29 GRADED
OL454571562012 OF 20 GRADED
DL515185621815 OF 18 GRADED
LB414179662112 OF 21 GRADED
DB515162972115 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE85th85
BLUE-CHIP RATIO28%80
RECRUITING CLASS#25 · 4/32 BC82
CLASS RANK TREND-5 · 3 CYCLES40
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 12 IN / 27 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
DEV TRANSITION MIX48%94
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
ILLBRET BIELEMA3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5858
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4444
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
NEBMATT RHULEFIRST SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4545
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3434
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESNEB OFFENSEILL OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBNEBRASKA OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEILLINOIS DEFENSE NEB QUARTERBACKSn=444% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ILL DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 56 PLAYERS24% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLNEBRASKA OFFENSEFRONT-7ILLINOIS DEFENSE NEB OFFENSIVE LINEn=2044% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ILL FRONT-7n=31 · 2 ROOMS14% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBNEBRASKA OFFENSEFRONT-7ILLINOIS DEFENSE NEB RUNNING BACKSn=1444% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ILL FRONT-72 ROOMS · 31 PLAYERS13% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.553876%0%LINEBACKERSLB
0.4539100%6%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TENEBRASKA OFFENSESECONDARYILLINOIS DEFENSE NEB PASS CATCHERSn=2951% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ILL SECONDARYn=25 · 1 ROOM33% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
NEB
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ILL
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+34
+9
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
NEB
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ILL
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
NEB
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ILL
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS71.9%
51.3%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS62.5%
73.7%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE2.4%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = NEB, ORANGE = ILL) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE