SAT 15:30 ET|KINNICK STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP5|O/U38.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
14
4-8
66
48
48
34%
82
68
18.3
+110
+2.0
HOME
20
10-4
71
0
98
41%
4
64
20.3
-130
-2.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALPUR14—IOWA20
CLOSED IOWA -2.0TOTAL 38.5IOWA COVERED · 34 POINTS · UNDER
PUR
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
IOWA
PUR
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
IOWA
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 6 FIELD n=49
MARKET
TOTAL38.5
SPREADIOWA -2.0
IMPLIED — PUR18.3
IMPLIED — IOWA20.3
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
21FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT0 SLOTSBoth rankings put this game in the same place on the week's board.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
PURRECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs4.3-7.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-6.5
PURDUE won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
IOWARECORD OVERSTATES
10-3ACTUALvs8.2-4.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+3.4
IOWA won 10 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 8.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERPURDUEIOWA2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Aidan O'ConnellQB · 85% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAustin BurtonQB · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB62%Jalen GrahamLB · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKieren DouglasLB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJacob WahlbergPORTAL · WESTERN MICHIGAN · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB61%Cory TriceCB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONReese TaylorDB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJamari BrownPORTAL · MISSISSIPPI STATE · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE48%Payne DurhamTE · 26% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCharlie JonesWR · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL48%Eric MillerPORTAL · LOUISVILLE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSpencer HolstegePORTAL · UCLA · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSione FinauPORTAL · ARIZONA STATE · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL45%Jack SullivanPORTAL · USC · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBranson DeenPORTAL · MIAMI · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLawrence JohnsonPORTAL · AUBURN · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB18%Kobe LewisPORTAL · FLORIDA ATLANTIC · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKing DoerueRB · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBHudson Card · PORTAL ★4 · TEXASBennett Meredith · PORTAL ★3 · ARIZONA STATERyan Browne · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
LBOwen Davis · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBBraxton Myers · PORTAL ★3 · OLE MISSAnthony Brown · PORTAL ★3 · ARKANSASSalim Turner-Muhammad · PORTAL ★3 · STANFORD4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEJahmal Edrine · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA ATLANTICArhmad Branch · SIGNEE ★3George Burhenn · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLPreston Nichols · PORTAL ★3 · UNLVJalen Grant · PORTAL ★3 · BOWLING GREENBen Farrell · PORTAL ★3 · INDIANA WESLEYANREFILLED
DLJeffrey M'ba · PORTAL ★3 · AUBURNIsaiah Nichols · PORTAL ★3 · ARKANSASDrake Carlson · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBNO STARTING ROLE OPENEDINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · PURDUE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
44.219 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
44.826 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
43.824 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB555595053 OF 5 GRADED
RB51514110085 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE343474642514 OF 25 GRADED
OL464667512012 OF 20 GRADED
DL434376671915 OF 19 GRADED
LB62624710095 OF 9 GRADED
DB353569381911 OF 19 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE66th66
BLUE-CHIP RATIO20%71
RECRUITING CLASS#68 · 0/18 BC50
CLASS RANK TREND+4 · 3 CYCLES58
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 15 IN / 25 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
DEV TRANSITION MIX36%52
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
IOWAKIRK FERENTZ8TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1919
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
PURRYAN WALTERSFIRST SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3737
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2222
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESPUR OFFENSEIOWA OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBPURDUE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEIOWA DEFENSE PUR QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
IOWA DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 59 PLAYERS15% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLPURDUE OFFENSEFRONT-7IOWA DEFENSE PUR OFFENSIVE LINEn=2049% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
IOWA FRONT-7n=40 · 2 ROOMS1% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBPURDUE OFFENSEFRONT-7IOWA DEFENSE PUR RUNNING BACKSn=80% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
IOWA FRONT-72 ROOMS · 40 PLAYERS1% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.553899%9%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEPURDUE OFFENSESECONDARYIOWA DEFENSE PUR PASS CATCHERSn=2536% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
IOWA SECONDARYn=19 · 1 ROOM27% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
PUR
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
IOWA
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+32
+5
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
PUR
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
IOWA
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
PUR
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
IOWA
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS58.3%
64.7%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS65.0%
65.2%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.1%
0.3%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = PUR, ORANGE = IOWA) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE