SAT 15:30 ET|SECU STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP15|O/U52.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
27
5-7
55
61
29
32%
60
53
19.5
+425
+13.0
HOME
24
8-5
69
86
79
78%
45
88
32.5
-600
-13.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALILL27—MD24
CLOSED MD -13.0TOTAL 52.0ILL COVERED · 51 POINTS · UNDER
ILL
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
MD
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 7 FIELD n=55
MARKET
TOTAL52.0
SPREADMD -13.0
IMPLIED — ILL19.5
IMPLIED — MD32.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
57FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT13 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 13 positions on a 55-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
ILLRECORD MATCHES
5-7ACTUALvs4.7-7.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-4.9
ILLINOIS won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
MDRECORD MATCHES
7-5ACTUALvs7.7-4.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+6.3
MARYLAND won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERILLINOISMARYLAND2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Tommy DeVitoQB · 94% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONArtur SitkowskiQB · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
RB78%Chase BrownRB · 74% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB77%Jartavius MartinDB · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSydney BrownDB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDevon WitherspoonDB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL40%Alex PihlstromOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAlex PalczewskiOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE37%Luke FordTE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrian HightowerPORTAL · CALIFORNIA · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMichael MarcheseTE · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB27%Isaac DarkangeloLB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCalvin Hart Jr.PORTAL · OREGON STATE · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL24%Calvin AveryDL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBLuke Altmyer · PORTAL ★4 · OLE MISSJohn Paddock · PORTAL ★3 · BALL STATECal Swanson · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
RBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
DBNicario Harper · PORTAL ★3 · LOUISVILLESaboor Karriem · SIGNEE ★4Zachary Tobe · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
OLBrandon Henderson · SIGNEE ★3TJ McMillen · SIGNEE ★3Zach Aamland · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TETanner Arkin · PORTAL ★3 · COLORADO STATEMalik Elzy · SIGNEE ★4Collin Dixon · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
LBJojo Hayden · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLDenzel Daxon · PORTAL ★3 · OHIOTrey Smith · SIGNEE ★3Alex Bray · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · ILLINOIS
CARRIED COMPOSITE
47.129 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
48.739 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
46.233 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB414188062 OF 6 GRADED
RB5353859964 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE545453822214 OF 22 GRADED
OL393958931910 OF 19 GRADED
DL38386576147 OF 14 GRADED
LB3939551001710 OF 17 GRADED
DB454551672516 OF 25 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE55th55
BLUE-CHIP RATIO8%50
RECRUITING CLASS#38 · 3/22 BC72
CLASS RANK TREND+35 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 7 IN / 11 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX49%96
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
MDMIKE LOCKSLEY5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9797
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5555
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
ILLBRET BIELEMA3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5858
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4444
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESILL OFFENSEMD OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBILLINOIS OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEMARYLAND DEFENSE ILL QUARTERBACKSn=6100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MD DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 51 PLAYERS28% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLILLINOIS OFFENSEFRONT-7MARYLAND DEFENSE ILL OFFENSIVE LINEn=197% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MD FRONT-7n=26 · 2 ROOMS32% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBILLINOIS OFFENSEFRONT-7MARYLAND DEFENSE ILL RUNNING BACKSn=61% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MD FRONT-72 ROOMS · 26 PLAYERS32% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554063%30%LINEBACKERSLB
0.454675%38%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEILLINOIS OFFENSESECONDARYMARYLAND DEFENSE ILL PASS CATCHERSn=2218% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MD SECONDARYn=25 · 1 ROOM25% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
ILL
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MD
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+9
−17
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
ILL
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MD
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
ILL
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MD
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS51.3%
48.6%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS73.7%
75.4%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.0%
1.6%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = ILL, ORANGE = MD) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE