SAT 12:00 ET|RAZORBACK STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP3|O/U45.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
7
5-7
80
17
81
58%
15
83
19.3
+205
+7.0
HOME
3
4-8
77
53
68
58%
53
64
26.3
-245
-7.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALMSST7—ARK3
CLOSED ARK -7.0TOTAL 45.5MSST COVERED · 10 POINTS · UNDER
MSST
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
ARK
MSST
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
ARK
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 8 FIELD n=54
MARKET
TOTAL45.5
SPREADARK -7.0
IMPLIED — MSST19.3
IMPLIED — ARK26.3
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
35FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT4 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 4 positions on a 54-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
MSSTRECORD MATCHES
5-7ACTUALvs4.6-7.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-4.8
MISSISSIPPI STATE won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ARKRECORD UNDERSTATES
4-8ACTUALvs5.7-6.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-5
POINT MARGIN / GAME-1.3
ARKANSAS won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERMISSISSIPPI STATEARKANSAS2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DB65%Collin DuncanS · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEmmanuel ForbesCB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJalen GreenS · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE65%Caleb DuckingWR · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRufus HarveyWR · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRara ThomasPORTAL · GEORGIA · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL53%Cameron YoungDT · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRandy CharltonDE · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJevon BanksPORTAL · KANSAS STATE · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB41%Dillon JohnsonPORTAL · WASHINGTON · 35% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJ.J. JernighanRB · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
LB33%Tyrus WheatLB · 26% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSherman TimbsLB · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
OL17%LaQuinston SharpOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
QB3%Sawyer RobertsonPORTAL · BAYLOR · 2% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DBKhamauri Rogers · PORTAL ★3 · MIAMIRaydarious Jones · PORTAL ★3 · LSUIsaac Smith · SIGNEE ★44 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TESeydou Traore · PORTAL ★4 · COLORADOFreddie Roberson · PORTAL ★3 · EASTERN WASHINGTONRyland Goede · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIA2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLJonathan Davis · SIGNEE ★3Caleb Bryant · SIGNEE ★3Joseph Head Jr. · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
RBKeyvone Lee · PORTAL ★3 · PENN STATESeth Davis · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
LBTy Jones · SIGNEE ★3Tabias Hinton · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLZay Alexander · SIGNEE ★3Amari Smith · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
QBChris Parson · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · MISSISSIPPI STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
47.932 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
48.939 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
47.135 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB4444656663 OF 6 GRADED
RB4747544485 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE525282731811 OF 18 GRADED
OL555575851612 OF 16 GRADED
DL585880901613 OF 16 GRADED
LB70706199127 OF 12 GRADED
DB545471892312 OF 23 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE80th80
BLUE-CHIP RATIO32%83
RECRUITING CLASS#27 · 4/23 BC80
CLASS RANK TREND-2 · 3 CYCLES46
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 11 IN / 25 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
DEV TRANSITION MIX27%14
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
ARKSAM PITTMAN4TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3636
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3333
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
MSSTZACH ARNETTFIRST SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
2626
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4040
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESMSST OFFENSEARK OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBMISSISSIPPI STATE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEARKANSAS DEFENSE MSST QUARTERBACKSn=634% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARK DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 53 PLAYERS55% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLMISSISSIPPI STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7ARKANSAS DEFENSE MSST OFFENSIVE LINEn=1615% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARK FRONT-7n=29 · 2 ROOMS54% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBMISSISSIPPI STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7ARKANSAS DEFENSE MSST RUNNING BACKSn=856% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARK FRONT-72 ROOMS · 29 PLAYERS54% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556950%18%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEMISSISSIPPI STATE OFFENSESECONDARYARKANSAS DEFENSE MSST PASS CATCHERSn=1827% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARK SECONDARYn=24 · 1 ROOM56% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
MSST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ARK
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+26
+19
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
MSST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ARK
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
MSST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ARK
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS58.6%
62.3%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS63.8%
63.7%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.7%
1.2%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = MSST, ORANGE = ARK) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE