SAT 15:30 ET|WRIGLEY FIELDCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP8|O/U31.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
10
10-4
71
0
98
41%
4
69
18.0
-210
-5.0
HOME
7
8-5
63
38
52
66%
34
52
13.0
+175
+5.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALIOWA10—NU7
CLOSED IOWA -5.0TOTAL 31.0NU COVERED · 17 POINTS · UNDER
IOWA
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
NU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 10 FIELD n=62
MARKET
TOTAL31.0
SPREADIOWA -5.0
IMPLIED — IOWA18.0
IMPLIED — NU13.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
24FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT1 SLOTThe two rankings disagree by 1 position on a 62-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
IOWARECORD OVERSTATES
10-3ACTUALvs8.2-4.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+3.4
IOWA won 10 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 8.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
NURECORD OVERSTATES
7-5ACTUALvs5.7-6.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-1.1
NORTHWESTERN won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERIOWANORTHWESTERN2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB94%Spencer PetrasQB · 82% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAlex PadillaPORTAL · SMU · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
LB88%Jack CampbellLB · 42% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSeth BensonLB · 40% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE48%Sam LaPortaTE · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONArland Bruce IVWR · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrody BrechtWR · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB45%Riley MossDB · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKaevon MerriweatherDB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB31%Gavin WilliamsPORTAL · NORTHERN ILLINOIS · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMonte PottebaumFB · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL27%Lukas Van NessDL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJohn WaggonerDL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL11%Jack PlumbOL · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBCade McNamara · PORTAL ★3 · MICHIGANDeacon Hill · PORTAL ★3 · WISCONSINMarco Lainez III · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
LBNick Jackson · PORTAL ★4 · VIRGINIABen Kueter · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
WR/TEErick All · PORTAL ★4 · MICHIGANZach Ortwerth · SIGNEE ★3Grant Leeper · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBKahlil Tate · SIGNEE ★3John Nestor · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBTJ Washington Jr. · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLChase Brackney · SIGNEE ★3Kenneth Merrieweather · SIGNEE ★3Maddux Borcherding-Johnson · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
OLRusty Feth · PORTAL ★3 · MIAMI (OH)Daijon Parker · PORTAL ★3 · SAGINAW VALLEY STATETrevor Lauck · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · IOWA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
58.569 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
72.687 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
50.540 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB202032053 OF 5 GRADED
RB3636598987 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE404057682813 OF 28 GRADED
OL333377852112 OF 21 GRADED
DL383880992213 OF 22 GRADED
LB26264098185 OF 18 GRADED
DB616171731912 OF 19 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE71st71
BLUE-CHIP RATIO16%66
RECRUITING CLASS#41 · 2/25 BC70
CLASS RANK TREND-18 · 3 CYCLES14
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 6 IN / 12 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 8th YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX39%63
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
NUDAVID BRAUNFIRST SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6060
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2424
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
IOWAKIRK FERENTZ8TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1919
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESIOWA OFFENSENU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBIOWA OFFENSEFULL DEFENSENORTHWESTERN DEFENSE IOWA QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 46 PLAYERS8% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLIOWA OFFENSEFRONT-7NORTHWESTERN DEFENSE IOWA OFFENSIVE LINEn=2115% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NU FRONT-7n=27 · 2 ROOMS15% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBIOWA OFFENSEFRONT-7NORTHWESTERN DEFENSE IOWA RUNNING BACKSn=811% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 27 PLAYERS14% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554076%6%LINEBACKERSLB
0.4545100%10%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEIOWA OFFENSESECONDARYNORTHWESTERN DEFENSE IOWA PASS CATCHERSn=2832% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NU SECONDARYn=19 · 1 ROOM2% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
IOWA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+5
+13
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
IOWA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
IOWA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS64.7%
57.6%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS65.2%
69.3%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.3%
1.3%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = IOWA, ORANGE = NU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE