WED 19:30 ET|GLASS BOWLCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP20|O/U45.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
23
6-7
16
3
13
50%
7
3
12.5
+650
+20.0
HOME
49
11-3
37
64
63
79%
43
17
32.5
-1100
-20.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALEMU23—TOL49
CLOSED TOL -20.0TOTAL 45.0TOL COVERED · 72 POINTS · OVER
EMU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
TOL
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 11 FIELD n=64
MARKET
TOTAL45.0
SPREADTOL -20.0
IMPLIED — EMU12.5
IMPLIED — TOL32.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
47FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT6 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 6 positions on a 64-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
EMURECORD OVERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs4.8-7.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-3.7
EASTERN MICHIGAN won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TOLRECORD OVERSTATES
11-2ACTUALvs9.9-3.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+13.0
TOLEDO won 11 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 9.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGEREASTERN MICHIGANTOLEDO2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB68%Taylor PowellQB · 68% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE63%Gunnar OakesTE · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONHassan BeydounWR · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDarius LassiterPORTAL · BYU · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL56%Marcellus JohnsonPORTAL · MISSOURI · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSidy SowOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRichard Bates Jr.OL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL43%Jose RamirezDL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGrant TruemanDL · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJordan CrawfordDL · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB30%Mark Lee Jr.DB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRussell Vaden IVDB · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB28%Steven ScheidtPORTAL · FRESNO STATE · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTariq SpeightsLB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB7%Darius Boone Jr.PORTAL · NORTHWESTERN STATE · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
WR/TEJavon Swinton · PORTAL ★3 · INDIANATerry Lockett · PORTAL ★3 · MICHIGAN STATEMakhail Wood · SIGNEE ★34 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLChris Mayo · PORTAL ★3 · WEST VIRGINIAOwen Snively · PORTAL ★3 · COLORADO STATEDan Sunderman · PORTAL ★2 · CENTRAL MISSOURI3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLMessiah Blair · SIGNEE ★3Malik Tullis · SIGNEE ★3Luke Fletcher · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
DBDaiquan White · SIGNEE ★3Caleb Dobbs · SIGNEE ★3Jaivian Norman · SIGNEE ★21 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
LBBryce Eliuk · SIGNEE ★2PARTIAL
RBDeion Brown · SIGNEE ★3Joey Mattord · SIGNEEINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · EASTERN MICHIGAN
CARRIED COMPOSITE
48.634 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
29.07 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
62.575 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB2727209243 OF 4 GRADED
RB3737629785 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE272736492314 OF 23 GRADED
OL373732752113 OF 21 GRADED
DL313134932013 OF 20 GRADED
LB23235794119 OF 11 GRADED
DB373746702017 OF 20 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE16th16
BLUE-CHIP RATIO0%4
RECRUITING CLASS#87 · 0/20 BC35
CLASS RANK TREND+25 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 5 IN / 10 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 8th YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX21%7
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
TOLJASON CANDLE8TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5151
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4949
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
EMUCHRIS CREIGHTON8TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5454
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2727
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESEMU OFFENSETOL OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBEASTERN MICHIGAN OFFENSEFULL DEFENSETOLEDO DEFENSE EMU QUARTERBACKSn=48% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TOL DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 53 PLAYERS5% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLEASTERN MICHIGAN OFFENSEFRONT-7TOLEDO DEFENSE EMU OFFENSIVE LINEn=2125% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TOL FRONT-7n=31 · 2 ROOMS4% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBEASTERN MICHIGAN OFFENSEFRONT-7TOLEDO DEFENSE EMU RUNNING BACKSn=83% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TOL FRONT-72 ROOMS · 31 PLAYERS4% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556494%6%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEEASTERN MICHIGAN OFFENSESECONDARYTOLEDO DEFENSE EMU PASS CATCHERSn=2351% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TOL SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM5% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
EMU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TOL
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−5
−27
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
EMU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TOL
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
EMU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TOL
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS59.0%
65.0%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS67.7%
57.0%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.8%
0.5%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = EMU, ORANGE = TOL) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE