SAT 12:00 ET|MEMORIAL STADIUM (CHAMPAIGN, IL)CONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP12|O/U44.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
45
3-9
66
60
41
36%
48
21
19.8
+175
+4.5
HOME
48
5-7
55
61
29
32%
60
57
24.3
-210
-4.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALIU45—ILL48
CLOSED ILL -4.5TOTAL 44.0IU COVERED · 93 POINTS · OVER
IU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
ILL
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 11 FIELD n=64
MARKET
TOTAL44.0
SPREADILL -4.5
IMPLIED — IU19.8
IMPLIED — ILL24.3
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
62FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT37 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 37 positions on a 64-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
IURECORD MATCHES
3-9ACTUALvs4.0-8.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME-7.8
INDIANA won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.0. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ILLRECORD MATCHES
5-7ACTUALvs4.7-7.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-4.9
ILLINOIS won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERINDIANAILLINOIS2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB88%Connor BazelakPORTAL · BOWLING GREEN · 84% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL87%JH TevisDL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJames Head Jr.DL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDemarcus ElliottDL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB77%Tiawan MullenDB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDevon MatthewsDB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBryant FitzgeraldDB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB58%Alfred BryantLB · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDasan McCulloughPORTAL · OKLAHOMA · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBradley Jennings Jr.LB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE55%AJ BarnerPORTAL · MICHIGAN · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEmery SimmonsPORTAL · UTAH · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIOND.J. Matthews Jr.WR · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB47%Shaun ShiversRB · 47% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL38%Luke HaggardOL · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONParker HannaOL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTim WeaverOL · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBTayven Jackson · PORTAL ★4 · TENNESSEEBroc Lowry · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DLAndre Carter · PORTAL ★4 · WESTERN MICHIGANMarcus Burris Jr. · PORTAL ★4 · TEXAS A&MPhilip Blidi · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS TECH2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBNicolas Toomer · PORTAL ★3 · STANFORDJamier Johnson · PORTAL ★3 · TEXASKobee Minor · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS TECH2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBJacob Mangum-Farrar · PORTAL ★3 · STANFORDJoshua Rudolph · PORTAL ★3 · AUSTIN PEAYREFILLED
WR/TEDeQuece Carter · PORTAL ★4 · FORDHAME.J. Williams · PORTAL ★3 · CLEMSONSam West · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBChristian Turner · PORTAL ★3 · WAKE FORESTREFILLED
OLNoah Bolticoff · PORTAL ★3 · TCUBubba Jeffries · SIGNEE ★3Austin Barrett · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · INDIANA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
32.74 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
49.842 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
23.33 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB6060886763 OF 6 GRADED
RB4949798385 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE525271552617 OF 26 GRADED
OL69697098199 OF 19 GRADED
DL343476141913 OF 19 GRADED
LB40405091136 OF 13 GRADED
DB404063542215 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE66th66
BLUE-CHIP RATIO13%62
RECRUITING CLASS#69 · 0/14 BC49
CLASS RANK TREND-15 · 3 CYCLES20
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+1 · 22 IN / 23 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 7th YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX44%85
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
ILLBRET BIELEMA3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5858
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4444
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
IUTOM ALLEN7TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6666
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3333
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESIU OFFENSEILL OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBINDIANA OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEILLINOIS DEFENSE IU QUARTERBACKSn=633% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ILL DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 56 PLAYERS24% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLINDIANA OFFENSEFRONT-7ILLINOIS DEFENSE IU OFFENSIVE LINEn=192% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ILL FRONT-7n=31 · 2 ROOMS14% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBINDIANA OFFENSEFRONT-7ILLINOIS DEFENSE IU RUNNING BACKSn=817% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ILL FRONT-72 ROOMS · 31 PLAYERS13% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.553876%0%LINEBACKERSLB
0.4539100%6%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEINDIANA OFFENSESECONDARYILLINOIS DEFENSE IU PASS CATCHERSn=2645% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ILL SECONDARYn=25 · 1 ROOM33% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
IU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ILL
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+34
+9
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
IU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ILL
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
IU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ILL
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS55.6%
51.3%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS61.1%
73.7%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.2%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = IU, ORANGE = ILL) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE