SAT 17:30 ET|RESER STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP12|O/U52.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
17
3-9
74
33
40
39%
74
83
15.5
+850
+21.5
HOME
62
8-5
61
94
80
53%
37
100
37.0
-1800
-21.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALSTAN17—ORST62
CLOSED ORST -21.5TOTAL 52.5ORST COVERED · 79 POINTS · OVER
STAN
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
ORST
STAN
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
ORST
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 11 FIELD n=64
MARKET
TOTAL52.5
SPREADORST -21.5
IMPLIED — STAN15.5
IMPLIED — ORST37.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
49FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT12 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 12 positions on a 64-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
STANRECORD MATCHES
3-9ACTUALvs2.3-9.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-17.1
STANFORD won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ORSTRECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs8.9-3.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+12.3
OREGON STATE won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERSTANFORDOREGON STATE2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB97%Tanner McKeeQB · 97% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DB85%Jonathan McGillPORTAL · SMU · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKyu Blu KellyCB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEthan BonnerCB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL73%Drake NugentPORTAL · MICHIGAN · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJake HornibrookPORTAL · DUKE · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONWalter RousePORTAL · OKLAHOMA · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL46%Stephen HerronPORTAL · LOUISVILLE · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAeneas DiCosmoPORTAL · VANDERBILT · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJacob Mangum-FarrarPORTAL · INDIANA · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE46%Elijah HigginsWR · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrycen TremayneWR · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMichael WilsonWR · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB44%Levani DamuniPORTAL · UTAH · 26% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRicky MiezanLB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB16%Caleb RobinsonRB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBMyles Jackson · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBJshawn Frausto-Ramos · SIGNEE ★4Che Ojarikre · SIGNEE ★3Aaron Morris · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLTrevor Mayberry · PORTAL ★3 · PENNSYLVANIAAlec Bank · PORTAL ★3 · HARVARDSimione Pale · SIGNEE ★34 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLGavin Geweniger · SIGNEE ★3Tre Williams · SIGNEE ★3Omar Staples · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEAhmari Borden · SIGNEE ★3Tiger Bachmeier · SIGNEE ★3Ismael Cisse · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
LBGaethan Bernadel · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA INTERNATIONALREFILLED
RBSedrick Irvin Jr. · SIGNEE ★3Caleb Hampton · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · STANFORD
CARRIED COMPOSITE
37.410 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
46.833 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
32.46 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB5858557664 OF 6 GRADED
RB6060707685 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE525264452214 OF 22 GRADED
OL363674641511 OF 15 GRADED
DL555564861210 OF 12 GRADED
LB444471641911 OF 19 GRADED
DB545463691712 OF 17 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE74th74
BLUE-CHIP RATIO20%71
RECRUITING CLASS#46 · 1/23 BC66
CLASS RANK TREND+5 · 3 CYCLES60
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-5 · 4 IN / 21 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
DEV TRANSITION MIX20%6
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
ORSTJONATHAN SMITH6TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4444
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8282
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
STANTROY TAYLORFIRST SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5151
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8585
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESSTAN OFFENSEORST OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBSTANFORD OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEOREGON STATE DEFENSE STAN QUARTERBACKSn=624% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ORST DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 57 PLAYERS22% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLSTANFORD OFFENSEFRONT-7OREGON STATE DEFENSE STAN OFFENSIVE LINEn=1536% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ORST FRONT-7n=34 · 2 ROOMS14% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBSTANFORD OFFENSEFRONT-7OREGON STATE DEFENSE STAN RUNNING BACKSn=824% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ORST FRONT-72 ROOMS · 34 PLAYERS16% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556697%7%LINEBACKERSLB
0.456768%20%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TESTANFORD OFFENSESECONDARYOREGON STATE DEFENSE STAN PASS CATCHERSn=2255% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ORST SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM29% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
STAN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ORST
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+54
−26
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
STAN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ORST
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
STAN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ORST
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS50.3%
61.3%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS67.7%
66.8%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE2.2%
0.9%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = STAN, ORANGE = ORST) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE