SAT 12:00 ET|DAVIS WADE STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP57|O/U46.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
20
3-9
23
19
18
58%
75
—
16.3
+575
+14.0
HOME
41
5-7
80
17
81
58%
15
—
30.3
-850
-14.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALUSM20—MSST41
CLOSED MSST -14.0TOTAL 46.5MSST COVERED · 61 POINTS · OVER
USM
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
MSST
USM
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
MSST
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 12 FIELD n=64
MARKET
TOTAL46.5
SPREADMSST -14.0
IMPLIED — USM16.3
IMPLIED — MSST30.3
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
30FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT14 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 14 positions on a 64-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
USMRECORD MATCHES
3-9ACTUALvs3.2-8.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-12.6
SOUTHERN MISS won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
MSSTRECORD MATCHES
5-7ACTUALvs4.6-7.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-4.8
MISSISSIPPI STATE won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERSOUTHERN MISSMISSISSIPPI STATE2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DB66%Malik ShortsDB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNatrone BrooksDB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEric Scott Jr.DB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB56%Daylen GillLB · 29% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSantrell LathamLB · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB41%Trey LowePORTAL · LIBERTY · 36% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTy KeyesQB · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE39%Jason BrownleeWR · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLuke BakerTE · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRay LadnerTE · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL32%Tykeem DossOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONPaul Gainer Jr.OL · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB19%Janari DeanRB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL9%Dominic QuewonDL · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DBMJ Daniels · PORTAL ★4 · OLE MISSDylan Lawrence · PORTAL ★3 · MISSISSIPPI STATESentario Willis · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBKolbe Cage · PORTAL ★3 · ARIZONATre'Mon Henry · SIGNEE ★3Jacob Johnson · SIGNEE ★2PARTIAL
QBEthan Crawford · SIGNEE ★3Austin Gonzalez · SIGNEE ★2INTACT
WR/TEJavieon Butler · SIGNEE ★3Justyn Reid · SIGNEE ★3Exavious Reed · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
OLGabe Cavazos · PORTAL ★3 · MISSISSIPPI STATETanner Welch · SIGNEE ★3Luke Rogers · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
RBRodrigues Clark · PORTAL ★3 · MEMPHISINTACT
DLEric Thomas · PORTAL ★3 · ARKANSASElijah Douglas · SIGNEE ★3Cameron Mackey · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · SOUTHERN MISS
CARRIED COMPOSITE
60.675 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
75.392 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
53.748 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB575723073 OF 7 GRADED
RB6262518476 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE525239822213 OF 22 GRADED
OL424232861814 OF 18 GRADED
DL464649821613 OF 16 GRADED
LB464631671211 OF 12 GRADED
DB404055552016 OF 20 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE23rd23
BLUE-CHIP RATIO2%15
RECRUITING CLASS#81 · 0/20 BC40
CLASS RANK TREND+43 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+1 · 8 IN / 6 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX44%86
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
MSSTZACH ARNETTFIRST SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
2626
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4040
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
USMWILL HALL3TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1717
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2828
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESUSM OFFENSEMSST OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBSOUTHERN MISS OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEMISSISSIPPI STATE DEFENSE USM QUARTERBACKSn=7100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MSST DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 51 PLAYERS9% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLSOUTHERN MISS OFFENSEFRONT-7MISSISSIPPI STATE DEFENSE USM OFFENSIVE LINEn=1814% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MSST FRONT-7n=28 · 2 ROOMS6% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBSOUTHERN MISS OFFENSEFRONT-7MISSISSIPPI STATE DEFENSE USM RUNNING BACKSn=716% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MSST FRONT-72 ROOMS · 28 PLAYERS6% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555890%25%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TESOUTHERN MISS OFFENSESECONDARYMISSISSIPPI STATE DEFENSE USM PASS CATCHERSn=2218% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MSST SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM11% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
USM
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MSST
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+7
+26
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
USM
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MSST
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
USM
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MSST
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS58.8%
58.6%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS56.8%
63.8%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.4%
0.7%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = USM, ORANGE = MSST) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE