THU 19:30 ET|DAVIS WADE STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP4|O/U55.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
17
11-2
84
90
76
62%
79
—
32.5
-450
-10.0
HOME
7
5-7
80
17
81
58%
15
—
22.5
+335
+10.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALMISS17—MSST7
CLOSED MISS -10.0TOTAL 55.0SPREAD PUSHED · 24 POINTS · UNDER
MISS
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
MSST
MISS
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
MSST
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 13 FIELD n=65
MARKET
TOTAL55.0
SPREADMISS -10.0
IMPLIED — MISS32.5
IMPLIED — MSST22.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
33FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT44 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 44 positions on a 65-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
MISSRECORD OVERSTATES
10-2ACTUALvs8.9-3.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+12.5
OLE MISS won 10 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
MSSTRECORD MATCHES
5-7ACTUALvs4.6-7.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-4.8
MISSISSIPPI STATE won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGEROLE MISSMISSISSIPPI STATE2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DB59%AJ FinleyS · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONOtis ReeseS · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTysheem JohnsonPORTAL · OREGON · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB54%Troy BrownLB · 30% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAustin KeysPORTAL · AUBURN · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE47%Jonathan MingoWR · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMalik HeathWR · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCasey KellyPORTAL · OREGON · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL44%Tavius RobinsonDE · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKD HillDT · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB36%Zach EvansRB · 35% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL22%Nick BroekerOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB5%Luke AltmyerPORTAL · ILLINOIS · 4% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DBJohn Saunders · PORTAL ★4 · MIAMI (OH)Zamari Walton · PORTAL ★4 · GEORGIA TECHTeja Young · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA ATLANTIC3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBMonty Montgomery · PORTAL ★4 · LOUISVILLEJeremiah Jean-Baptiste · PORTAL ★3 · UCFSuntarine Perkins · SIGNEE ★5REFILLED
WR/TECaden Prieskorn · PORTAL ★4 · MEMPHISChris Marshall · PORTAL ★4 · TEXAS A&MZakhari Franklin · PORTAL ★4 · UTSA4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLIsaac Ukwu · PORTAL ★3 · JAMES MADISONJamarious Brown · SIGNEE ★4Chamberlain Campbell · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
RBKedrick Reescano · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
OLBrycen Sanders · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
QBWalker Howard · PORTAL ★4 · LSUSpencer Sanders · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA STATEAustin Simmons · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · OLE MISS
CARRIED COMPOSITE
49.336 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
56.559 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
45.230 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB6767979273 OF 7 GRADED
RB6363819994 OF 9 GRADED
WR/TE848470572717 OF 27 GRADED
OL484861641914 OF 19 GRADED
DL646482632015 OF 20 GRADED
LB606083461611 OF 16 GRADED
DB646466462517 OF 25 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE84th84
BLUE-CHIP RATIO28%79
RECRUITING CLASS#23 · 8/17 BC83
CLASS RANK TREND-5 · 3 CYCLES40
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 20 IN / 33 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 4th YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX31%27
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
MSSTZACH ARNETTFIRST SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
2626
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4040
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
MISSLANE KIFFIN4TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4848
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8585
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESMISS OFFENSEMSST OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBOLE MISS OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEMISSISSIPPI STATE DEFENSE MISS QUARTERBACKSn=78% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MSST DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 51 PLAYERS9% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLOLE MISS OFFENSEFRONT-7MISSISSIPPI STATE DEFENSE MISS OFFENSIVE LINEn=1936% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MSST FRONT-7n=28 · 2 ROOMS6% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBOLE MISS OFFENSEFRONT-7MISSISSIPPI STATE DEFENSE MISS RUNNING BACKSn=91% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MSST FRONT-72 ROOMS · 28 PLAYERS6% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555890%25%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEOLE MISS OFFENSESECONDARYMISSISSIPPI STATE DEFENSE MISS PASS CATCHERSn=2743% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MSST SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM11% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
MISS
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MSST
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−9
+26
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
MISS
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MSST
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
MISS
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MSST
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS64.0%
58.6%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS64.8%
63.8%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.3%
0.7%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = MISS, ORANGE = MSST) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE