FRI 12:00 ET|KELLY/SHORTS STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP27|O/U54.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
32
11-3
37
64
63
79%
43
—
32.3
-500
-10.0
HOME
17
5-7
9
39
2
36%
40
—
22.3
+360
+10.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALTOL32—CMU17
CLOSED TOL -10.0TOTAL 54.5TOL COVERED · 49 POINTS · UNDER
TOL
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
CMU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 13 FIELD n=65
MARKET
TOTAL54.5
SPREADTOL -10.0
IMPLIED — TOL32.3
IMPLIED — CMU22.3
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
56FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT3 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 3 positions on a 65-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
TOLRECORD OVERSTATES
11-2ACTUALvs9.9-3.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+13.0
TOLEDO won 11 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 9.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
CMURECORD OVERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs4.0-8.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-7.9
CENTRAL MICHIGAN won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.0. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERTOLEDOCENTRAL MICHIGAN2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
WR/TE44%Jamal TurnerTE · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDemeer BlankumseePORTAL · MEMPHIS · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMikel BarkleyWR · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB41%Dyontae JohnsonLB · 29% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNate GivhanLB · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL32%Desjuan JohnsonDT · 32% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
OL27%Kelvin AtemanOL · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMitchell BergOL · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB5%Troy SimonS · 2% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB1%Jordan LoweRB · <1% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
QB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
WR/TEJulian Allen · SIGNEE ★3Sam Smith Jr. · SIGNEE ★3Donivon Thomas · SIGNEEPARTIAL
LBChris D'Appolonia · SIGNEEPARTIAL
DLTravion Ford · PORTAL ★4 · MISSOURIWayne Peart II · SIGNEE ★3Laith Shamma · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
OLRod Orr · PORTAL ★4 · FLORIDA STATEJackson Cannon · PORTAL ★3 · MISSISSIPPI STATEMason Ludwig · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBNicholas Thompson · SIGNEE ★3Amare Garrett · SIGNEEKaden Holmes · SIGNEEINTACT
RBConnor Walendzak · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
QBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · TOLEDO
CARRIED COMPOSITE
78.7100 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
80.497 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
77.697 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB5858569953 OF 5 GRADED
RB4040689488 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE383849932619 OF 26 GRADED
OL505043622112 OF 21 GRADED
DL646450941616 OF 16 GRADED
LB565658981513 OF 15 GRADED
DB505043952217 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE36th36
BLUE-CHIP RATIO6%38
RECRUITING CLASS#102 · 0/17 BC24
CLASS RANK TREND-35 · 3 CYCLES0
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+2 · 3 IN / 9 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 8th YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX32%28
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
CMUJIM MCELWAIN5TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1515
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5252
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
TOLJASON CANDLE8TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5151
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4949
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESTOL OFFENSECMU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBTOLEDO OFFENSEFULL DEFENSECENTRAL MICHIGAN DEFENSE TOL QUARTERBACKSn=51% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CMU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 50 PLAYERS10% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLTOLEDO OFFENSEFRONT-7CENTRAL MICHIGAN DEFENSE TOL OFFENSIVE LINEn=2138% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CMU FRONT-7n=28 · 2 ROOMS1% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBTOLEDO OFFENSEFRONT-7CENTRAL MICHIGAN DEFENSE TOL RUNNING BACKSn=86% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CMU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 28 PLAYERS1% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.553399%0%LINEBACKERSLB
0.4518100%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TETOLEDO OFFENSESECONDARYCENTRAL MICHIGAN DEFENSE TOL PASS CATCHERSn=267% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CMU SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM18% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
TOL
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CMU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−27
+1
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
TOL
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CMU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
TOL
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CMU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS65.0%
62.0%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS57.0%
60.5%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.5%
0.8%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = TOL, ORANGE = CMU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE