SAT 16:00 ET|MEMORIAL STADIUM (CHAMPAIGN, IL)NONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP2|O/U55.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
3
3-7
58
41
81
80%
17
46
25.5
—
+4.0
HOME
24
8-5
60
62
97
55%
76
75
29.5
—
-4.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2022CONSENSUS · CONSENSUS
FINALUVA3—ILL24
CLOSED ILL -4.0TOTAL 55.0ILL COVERED · 27 POINTS · UNDER
UVA
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
ILL
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2022 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 2 FIELD n=47
MARKET
TOTAL55.0
SPREADILL -4.0
IMPLIED — UVA25.5
IMPLIED — ILL29.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
40FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT12 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 12 positions on a 47-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2022 · FULL SEASON
UVARECORD MATCHES
3-7ACTUALvs3.1-6.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-7.0
VIRGINIA won 3 of 10 against a scoring profile describing 3.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ILLRECORD UNDERSTATES
8-4ACTUALvs10.2-1.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-2.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME+13.2
ILLINOIS won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 10.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERVIRGINIAILLINOIS2022 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB0%Ira Armstead IIQB · SHARE NOT MEASURED
RB0%Devin DarringtonRB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE0%Jelani WoodsTE · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL0%Ryan NelsonOT · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL0%Adeeb AtariwaDL · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB0%Elliott BrownLB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB0%Joseph WhiteDB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBDavis Lane Jr. · SIGNEE ★3Delaney Crawford · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
RBXavier Brown · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
WR/TEDakota Twitty · SIGNEE ★4Karson Gay · SIGNEE ★3JR Wilson Jr. · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
OLSnoop Leota-Amaama · SIGNEE ★3McKale Boley · SIGNEE ★3Houston Curry · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
DLTerrell Jones · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
LBStevie Bracey · SIGNEE ★3Trey McDonald · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
DBNO STARTING ROLE OPENEDINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · VIRGINIA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
0.00 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB65659510062 OF 6 GRADED
RB5353674095 OF 9 GRADED
WR/TE535360612516 OF 25 GRADED
OL3535490238 OF 23 GRADED
DL525252462212 OF 22 GRADED
LB363668961510 OF 15 GRADED
DB63634299179 OF 17 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE58th58
BLUE-CHIP RATIO9%54
RECRUITING CLASS#66 · 1/16 BC51
CLASS RANK TREND-18 · 3 CYCLES14
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
DEV TRANSITION MIX27%56
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
ILLBRET BIELEMA2TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5858
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4444
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
UVATONY ELLIOTTFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6868
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3535
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESUVA OFFENSEILL OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBVIRGINIA OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEILLINOIS DEFENSE UVA QUARTERBACKSn=60% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ILL DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 53 PLAYERS14% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLVIRGINIA OFFENSEFRONT-7ILLINOIS DEFENSE UVA OFFENSIVE LINEn=23100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ILL FRONT-7n=29 · 2 ROOMS20% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBVIRGINIA OFFENSEFRONT-7ILLINOIS DEFENSE UVA RUNNING BACKSn=960% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ILL FRONT-72 ROOMS · 29 PLAYERS21% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556687%17%LINEBACKERSLB
0.455569%12%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEVIRGINIA OFFENSESECONDARYILLINOIS DEFENSE UVA PASS CATCHERSn=2539% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ILL SECONDARYn=24 · 1 ROOM9% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
UVA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ILL
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+27
−30
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
UVA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ILL
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
UVA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ILL
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS50.6%
65.6%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS63.4%
62.2%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.5%
0.9%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = UVA, ORANGE = ILL) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2022, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE