SAT 15:30 ET|UB STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP4|O/U50.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
20
6-7
20
5
22
66%
1
0
23.8
—
+3.0
HOME
24
7-6
16
17
38
33%
74
3
26.8
—
-3.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2022CONSENSUS · CONSENSUS
FINALM-OH20—BUF24
CLOSED BUF -3.0TOTAL 50.5BUF COVERED · 44 POINTS · UNDER
M-OH
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
BUF
M-OH
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
BUF
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2022 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 5 FIELD n=57
MARKET
TOTAL50.5
SPREADBUF -3.0
IMPLIED — M-OH23.8
IMPLIED — BUF26.8
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
47FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT10 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 10 positions on a 57-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2022 · FULL SEASON
M-OHRECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs5.3-6.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-2.3
MIAMI (OH) won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
BUFRECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs6.5-5.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+1.8
BUFFALO won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERMIAMI (OH)BUFFALO2022 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB0%AJ MayerPORTAL · ARKANSAS STATE · SHARE NOT MEASURED
RB0%Davion JohnsonRB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE0%James BurnsPORTAL · AUSTIN PEAY · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL0%David ReddingOL · SHARE NOT MEASURED
DL0%CJ Ware IVDL · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB0%Ivan Pace Jr.LB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB0%Trevon BookerDB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBJoe Humphreys · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
RBNO STARTING ROLE OPENEDINTACT
WR/TEJeffrey Simmons · SIGNEE ★3Devin Johnson · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
OLGavin Rohrs · SIGNEE ★3Brandon Moore · SIGNEE ★3Eric Smith · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
DLMalachi Clark · SIGNEE ★3Ashton Duncan · SIGNEE ★3Josh Lukusa · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
LBGrant Lyons · SIGNEE ★3Adam Trick · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
DBEli Coppess · SIGNEE ★3Rowan Zolman · SIGNEE ★3Mason Moore · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · MIAMI (OH)
CARRIED COMPOSITE
0.00 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB4242509983 OF 8 GRADED
RB1818249996 OF 9 GRADED
WR/TE373742732714 OF 27 GRADED
OL363654181712 OF 17 GRADED
DL333343691510 OF 15 GRADED
LB41412850149 OF 14 GRADED
DB383835641912 OF 19 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE20th20
BLUE-CHIP RATIO0%4
RECRUITING CLASS#77 · 0/18 BC43
CLASS RANK TREND+12 · 3 CYCLES74
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 7th YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX35%84
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
BUFMAURICE LINGUIST2TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5353
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8686
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
M-OHCHUCK MARTIN7TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3434
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESM-OH OFFENSEBUF OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBMIAMI (OH) OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEBUFFALO DEFENSE M-OH QUARTERBACKSn=81% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BUF DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 54 PLAYERS49% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLMIAMI (OH) OFFENSEFRONT-7BUFFALO DEFENSE M-OH OFFENSIVE LINEn=1782% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BUF FRONT-7n=29 · 2 ROOMS31% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBMIAMI (OH) OFFENSEFRONT-7BUFFALO DEFENSE M-OH RUNNING BACKSn=91% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BUF FRONT-72 ROOMS · 29 PLAYERS30% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.553953%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEMIAMI (OH) OFFENSESECONDARYBUFFALO DEFENSE M-OH PASS CATCHERSn=2727% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BUF SECONDARYn=25 · 1 ROOM64% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
M-OH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BUF
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−6
−14
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
M-OH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BUF
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
M-OH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BUF
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS60.8%
58.8%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS59.4%
72.9%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.0%
0.3%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = M-OH, ORANGE = BUF) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2022, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE