TUE 19:00 ET|GLASS BOWLCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP20|O/U46.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
42
6-7
23
18
28
104%
18
—
16.0
—
+14.5
HOME
35
9-5
43
31
59
53%
71
14
30.5
—
-14.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2022CONSENSUS · CONSENSUS
FINALBGSU42—TOL35
CLOSED TOL -14.5TOTAL 46.5BGSU COVERED · 77 POINTS · OVER
BGSU
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
TOL
BGSU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
TOL
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2022 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 12 FIELD n=61
MARKET
TOTAL46.5
SPREADTOL -14.5
IMPLIED — BGSU16.0
IMPLIED — TOL30.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
47FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT7 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 7 positions on a 61-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2022 · FULL SEASON
BGSURECORD OVERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs3.7-8.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+2.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-9.4
BOWLING GREEN won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TOLRECORD MATCHES
8-5ACTUALvs8.2-4.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME+6.5
TOLEDO won 8 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 8.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERBOWLING GREENTOLEDO2022 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB0%Tucker MeltonQB · SHARE NOT MEASURED
RB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
WR/TE0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
OL0%Malone VanGorderOL · SHARE NOT MEASURED
DL0%Jevon HendersonDL · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
DB0%Matt KordasDB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBOwen Bainbridge · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
RBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
WR/TENO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
OLNO STARTING ROLE OPENEDINTACT
DLDavonte Miles · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
LBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
DBDarius Lorfils · SIGNEE ★3Canaan Williams · SIGNEE ★3Jalen Huskey · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · BOWLING GREEN
CARRIED COMPOSITE
0.00 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB3131298742 OF 4 GRADED
RB4545409597 OF 9 GRADED
WR/TE464642622514 OF 25 GRADED
OL37375101710 OF 17 GRADED
DL505043931312 OF 13 GRADED
LB363652741611 OF 16 GRADED
DB393947661612 OF 16 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE23rd23
BLUE-CHIP RATIO1%12
RECRUITING CLASS#109 · 0/10 BC19
CLASS RANK TREND-24 · 3 CYCLES2
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 4th YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX29%62
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
TOLJASON CANDLE7TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5151
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4949
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
BGSUSCOT LOEFFLER4TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6767
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5252
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESBGSU OFFENSETOL OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBBOWLING GREEN OFFENSEFULL DEFENSETOLEDO DEFENSE BGSU QUARTERBACKSn=413% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TOL DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 46 PLAYERS14% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLBOWLING GREEN OFFENSEFRONT-7TOLEDO DEFENSE BGSU OFFENSIVE LINEn=17100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TOL FRONT-7n=31 · 2 ROOMS18% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBBOWLING GREEN OFFENSEFRONT-7TOLEDO DEFENSE BGSU RUNNING BACKSn=95% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TOL FRONT-72 ROOMS · 31 PLAYERS20% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554997%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEBOWLING GREEN OFFENSESECONDARYTOLEDO DEFENSE BGSU PASS CATCHERSn=2538% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TOL SECONDARYn=15 · 1 ROOM11% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
BGSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TOL
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+11
+2
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
BGSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TOL
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
BGSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TOL
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS52.3%
61.5%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS74.4%
60.9%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.3%
0.4%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = BGSU, ORANGE = TOL) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2022, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE