SAT 12:00 ET|CRAMTON BOWLNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP20|O/U54.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
19
6-7
34
14
23
18%
36
29
28.3
-110
-2.5
HOME
21
7-6
13
36
42
62%
24
1
25.8
-110
+2.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALARST19—NIU21
CLOSED ARST -2.5TOTAL 54.0NIU COVERED · 40 POINTS · UNDER
ARST
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
NIU
ARST
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
NIU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=45
MARKET
TOTAL54.0
SPREADARST -2.5
IMPLIED — ARST28.3
IMPLIED — NIU25.8
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
ARSTRECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs5.2-6.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-3.4
ARKANSAS STATE won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
NIURECORD UNDERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs7.2-4.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-5
POINT MARGIN / GAME+4.1
NORTHERN ILLINOIS won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERARKANSAS STATENORTHERN ILLINOIS2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB98%James BlackmanQB · 89% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAJ MayerQB · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
LB66%Jordan CarmoucheLB · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaden HarrisLB · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKivon BennettLB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL65%Ethan MinerPORTAL · NORTH TEXAS · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJordan RhodesOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONErnesto RamirezOL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB60%Johnnie LangRB · 46% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarcel MurrayRB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE58%Seydou TraoreTE · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChamp FlemingsWR · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTe'Vailance HuntWR · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL32%TW AyersDE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJohn MinceyDL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB26%Kenneth HarrisPORTAL · OKLAHOMA STATE · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBJ.T. Shrout · PORTAL ★3 · COLORADOWill Prichard · SIGNEE ★3Christian Hunt · SIGNEE ★2REFILLED
LBRJ Kelly · SIGNEE ★3Jordan Sample · SIGNEE ★3Jamil Williams · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLHamilton Hall · PORTAL ★3 · OLE MISSMason Myers · SIGNEE ★3Walker Davis · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBCedric Hawkins · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TECorey Rucker · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH CAROLINAKhmari Thompson · PORTAL ★3 · ILLINOISClyde Curry · SIGNEE ★35 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLBrian Alston · SIGNEE ★3Ian Jeffries · SIGNEE ★3Terrell James · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DBDeaubry Hood · SIGNEE ★3Dontay Joyner · SIGNEE ★3Brandon Greil · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · ARKANSAS STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
48.033 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
25.65 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
58.865 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB5555501053 OF 5 GRADED
RB2929305685 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE494940542414 OF 24 GRADED
OL424259491613 OF 16 GRADED
DL484845722214 OF 22 GRADED
LB414131941710 OF 17 GRADED
DB434335842015 OF 20 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE34th34
BLUE-CHIP RATIO2%12
RECRUITING CLASS#74 · 0/22 BC45
CLASS RANK TREND+32 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 8 IN / 13 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX34%38
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
NIUTHOMAS HAMMOCK5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
88
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5757
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
ARSTBUTCH JONES3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7272
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3131
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESARST OFFENSENIU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBARKANSAS STATE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSENORTHERN ILLINOIS DEFENSE ARST QUARTERBACKSn=590% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NIU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 55 PLAYERS19% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLARKANSAS STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7NORTHERN ILLINOIS DEFENSE ARST OFFENSIVE LINEn=1651% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NIU FRONT-7n=35 · 2 ROOMS34% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBARKANSAS STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7NORTHERN ILLINOIS DEFENSE ARST RUNNING BACKSn=844% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NIU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 35 PLAYERS37% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.553890%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEARKANSAS STATE OFFENSESECONDARYNORTHERN ILLINOIS DEFENSE ARST PASS CATCHERSn=2446% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NIU SECONDARYn=20 · 1 ROOM7% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
ARST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NIU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−6
−20
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
ARST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NIU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
ARST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NIU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS60.9%
62.2%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS66.8%
65.8%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.7%
1.9%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = ARST, ORANGE = NIU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE