THU 14:00 ET|FORD FIELDNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP32|O/U48.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
46
7-6
69
44
69
56%
61
71
27.5
-230
-6.5
HOME
48
8-5
37
20
60
46%
46
11
21.0
+190
+6.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALPITT46—TOL48
CLOSED PITT -6.5TOTAL 48.5TOL COVERED · 94 POINTS · OVER
PITT
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
TOL
PITT
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
TOL
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=37
MARKET
TOTAL48.5
SPREADPITT -6.5
IMPLIED — PITT27.5
IMPLIED — TOL21.0
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
PITTRECORD MATCHES
7-5ACTUALvs7.2-4.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+5.1
PITTSBURGH won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TOLRECORD MATCHES
7-5ACTUALvs7.6-4.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+5.3
TOLEDO won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERPITTSBURGHTOLEDO2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB82%Christian VeilleuxPORTAL · GEORGIA STATE · 49% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONPhil JurkovecQB · 33% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL81%Dayon HayesPORTAL · COLORADO · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDeAndre JulesPORTAL · SOUTH CAROLINA · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDavid GreenDL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB69%Solomon DeShieldsPORTAL · TEXAS A&M · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONShayne SimonLB · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBangally KamaraPORTAL · SOUTH CAROLINA · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DB49%M.J. DevonshireDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONA.J. WoodsDB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarquis WilliamsDB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB41%C'Bo FlemisterRB · 41% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE40%Bub MeansDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKarter JohnsonPORTAL · FLORIDA A&M · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMalcolm EppsTE · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL29%Jake KradelOL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBlake ZubovicOL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBEli Holstein · PORTAL ★3 · ALABAMAJulian Dugger · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DLDavid Ojiegbe · PORTAL ★3 · CLEMSONNate Matlack · PORTAL ★3 · KANSAS STATEFrancis Brewu · SIGNEE ★34 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBKeye Thompson · PORTAL ★3 · OHIOCameron Lindsey · SIGNEE ★3Jeremiah Marcelin · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DBJaremiah Anglin Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · KENTUCKYAllen Bryant · SIGNEE ★3Davion Pritchard · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
RBDesmond Reid · PORTAL ★3 · WESTERN CAROLINAJuelz Goff · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
WR/TERaphael Williams Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · SAN DIEGO STATEJake Overman · PORTAL ★3 · OREGON STATECameron Monteiro · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
OLCaleb Holmes · SIGNEE ★4Moritz Schmoranzer · SIGNEE ★3Jiavani Cooley · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · PITTSBURGH
CARRIED COMPOSITE
41.823 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
56.164 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
34.012 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB5959573664 OF 6 GRADED
RB5656762275 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE313153612515 OF 25 GRADED
OL434367702112 OF 21 GRADED
DL727273511715 OF 17 GRADED
LB747468801512 OF 15 GRADED
DB505073741913 OF 19 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE69th69
BLUE-CHIP RATIO17%65
RECRUITING CLASS#41 · 1/23 BC70
CLASS RANK TREND+35 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-3 · 14 IN / 22 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 9th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
TOLJASON CANDLE9TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5151
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4949
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
PITTPAT NARDUZZI9TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8181
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3232
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESPITT OFFENSETOL OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBPITTSBURGH OFFENSEFULL DEFENSETOLEDO DEFENSE PITT QUARTERBACKSn=664% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TOL DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 52 PLAYERS11% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLPITTSBURGH OFFENSEFRONT-7TOLEDO DEFENSE PITT OFFENSIVE LINEn=2130% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TOL FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS10% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBPITTSBURGH OFFENSEFRONT-7TOLEDO DEFENSE PITT RUNNING BACKSn=778% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TOL FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS11% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554793%6%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEPITTSBURGH OFFENSESECONDARYTOLEDO DEFENSE PITT PASS CATCHERSn=2539% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TOL SECONDARYn=20 · 1 ROOM11% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
PITT
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TOL
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+6
−6
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
PITT
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TOL
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
PITT
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TOL
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS46.3%
55.8%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS77.6%
72.3%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.4%
0.8%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = PITT, ORANGE = TOL) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE