SAT 11:00 ET|THOMAS A. ROBINSON NATIONAL STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP28|O/U50.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
26
9-4
9
5
23
14%
70
8
27.5
-192
-4.5
HOME
7
8-4
37
34
20
74%
76
1
23.0
+160
+4.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALBUF26—LIB7
CLOSED BUF -4.5TOTAL 50.5BUF COVERED · 33 POINTS · UNDER
BUF
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
LIB
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=37
MARKET
TOTAL50.5
SPREADBUF -4.5
IMPLIED — BUF27.5
IMPLIED — LIB23.0
PACE COLLISION
FAST × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
BUFRECORD OVERSTATES
8-4ACTUALvs6.3-5.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+1.1
BUFFALO won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
LIBRECORD MATCHES
8-3ACTUALvs7.2-3.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+7.5
LIBERTY won 8 of 11 against a scoring profile describing 7.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERBUFFALOLIBERTY2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB95%Cole SnyderPORTAL · EASTERN MICHIGAN · 95% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE86%Marlyn JohnsonPORTAL · FLORIDA ATLANTIC · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCole HarrityWR · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCam BallPORTAL · MISSISSIPPI STATE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB83%Ron Cook Jr.RB · 53% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMike Washington Jr.PORTAL · NEW MEXICO STATE · 30% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL60%Jaylon BassDT · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDaymond WilliamsDT · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMax MichelDE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL45%Gabe WallaceOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONIsaiah WrightOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSidney WalkerOL · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB40%Joe AndreessenLB · 38% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB35%Devin GrantPORTAL · SYRACUSE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDemetrius HarrisS · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCaleb OffordDB · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBJack Shields · PORTAL ★3 · OLD DOMINIONREFILLED
WR/TETaji Johnson · PORTAL ★3 · BOSTON COLLEGEJJ Jenkins · PORTAL ★3 · COLUMBIAPatrick Clacks III · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBTerrance Shelton Jr. · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLKobe Stewart · PORTAL ★3 · SAMFORDTristan Souza · PORTAL ★3 · WASHINGTON STATEAntonio Colclough · PORTAL ★3 · MONMOUTH3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLGabriel Arena · PORTAL ★3 · VIRGINIA TECHJackson Bellamy · SIGNEE ★3Ahmaan Thomas · SIGNEE ★2PARTIAL
LBWill Clark · SIGNEE ★3Xavier Leonard · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBEddie Pleasant III · PORTAL ★3 · MICHIGAN STATESaVeon Brown · PORTAL ★3 · WESTERN MICHIGANOliver Bridges · PORTAL ★3 · CINCINNATI3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · BUFFALO
CARRIED COMPOSITE
47.746 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
36.720 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
54.962 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB2828289752 OF 5 GRADED
RB3535358576 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE323232512615 OF 26 GRADED
OL343427791710 OF 17 GRADED
DL363618372115 OF 21 GRADED
LB49493494116 OF 11 GRADED
DB373730882117 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE9th9
BLUE-CHIP RATIO0%3
RECRUITING CLASS#110 · 0/22 BC18
CLASS RANK TREND-29 · 3 CYCLES0
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 17 IN / 17 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
LIBJAMEY CHADWELL2TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
77
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6969
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
BUFPETE LEMBOFIRST SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5656
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3737
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESBUF OFFENSELIB OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBBUFFALO OFFENSEFULL DEFENSELIBERTY DEFENSE BUF QUARTERBACKSn=53% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LIB DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 50 PLAYERS26% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLBUFFALO OFFENSEFRONT-7LIBERTY DEFENSE BUF OFFENSIVE LINEn=1721% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LIB FRONT-7n=27 · 2 ROOMS25% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBBUFFALO OFFENSEFRONT-7LIBERTY DEFENSE BUF RUNNING BACKSn=715% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LIB FRONT-72 ROOMS · 27 PLAYERS26% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.553087%6%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEBUFFALO OFFENSESECONDARYLIBERTY DEFENSE BUF PASS CATCHERSn=2649% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LIB SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM28% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
BUF
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
LIB
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−29
−12
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
BUF
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
LIB
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
BUF
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
LIB
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS62.1%
69.2%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS57.5%
56.7%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE2.4%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = BUF, ORANGE = LIB) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE