TUE 14:00 ET|FAU STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP18|O/U44.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
22
8-5
46
34
87
69%
49
3
16.0
+370
+12.5
HOME
27
9-4
64
72
84
46%
32
65
28.5
-485
-12.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2025CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALTOL22—LOU27
CLOSED LOU -12.5TOTAL 44.5TOL COVERED · 49 POINTS · OVER
TOL
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
LOU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=44
MARKET
TOTAL44.5
SPREADLOU -12.5
IMPLIED — TOL16.0
IMPLIED — LOU28.5
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
TOLRECORD UNDERSTATES
8-4ACTUALvs10.9-1.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-2.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+19.4
TOLEDO won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 10.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
LOURECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs8.4-3.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+9.1
LOUISVILLE won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERTOLEDOLOUISVILLE2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
LB90%Jackson BarrowLB · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDaniel BoldenLB · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDeshawn HoltLB · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL59%Darius AlexanderDRAFTED · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIOND'Andre RaginDE · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCavon ButlerDT · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE54%Anthony TorresTE · 30% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJerjuan NewtonWR · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB47%Jacquez StuartRB · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSevaughn ClarkRB · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DB27%Maxen HookS · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZeke BlakeCB · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL27%Jakob JamesOL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAllen Jones Jr.OL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
LBLangston Long · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH FLORIDARickey Williams · PORTAL ★3 · WEST VIRGINIAMaddox Arnold · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLJohn Baker IV · SIGNEE ★3Jordin Farrow · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TETrayvon Rudolph · PORTAL ★3 · NORTHERN ILLINOISJacob Petersen · PORTAL ★3 · HOLY CROSSOmar Mims Jr. · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBKenji Christian · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH CAROLINA A&TChip Trayanum · PORTAL ★3 · KENTUCKYNoah Sanders · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DBBraedyn Moore · PORTAL ★3 · WISCONSINAndrew Wilson-Lamp · PORTAL ★3 · EAST CAROLINATyrell Russell · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLCade Wilhelmi · SIGNEE ★3Raphael Greene-Nyarko · SIGNEE ★3Ameer Yasin · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
QBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · TOLEDO
CARRIED COMPOSITE
53.176 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
65.693 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
46.359 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB7474138363 OF 6 GRADED
RB43434117119 OF 11 GRADED
WR/TE464641442417 OF 24 GRADED
OL494949712015 OF 20 GRADED
DL676751722117 OF 21 GRADED
LB626253731110 OF 11 GRADED
DB515147752015 OF 20 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE46th46
BLUE-CHIP RATIO6%29
RECRUITING CLASS#73 · 0/21 BC46
CLASS RANK TREND+29 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 20 IN / 17 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 10th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
LOUJEFF BROHM3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8585
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2121
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
TOLJASON CANDLE10TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5151
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4949
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESTOL OFFENSELOU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBTOLEDO OFFENSEFULL DEFENSELOUISVILLE DEFENSE TOL QUARTERBACKSn=617% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LOU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 46 PLAYERS48% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLTOLEDO OFFENSEFRONT-7LOUISVILLE DEFENSE TOL OFFENSIVE LINEn=2029% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LOU FRONT-7n=28 · 2 ROOMS45% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBTOLEDO OFFENSEFRONT-7LOUISVILLE DEFENSE TOL RUNNING BACKSn=1183% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LOU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 28 PLAYERS44% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556446%17%LINEBACKERSLB
0.455368%20%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TETOLEDO OFFENSESECONDARYLOUISVILLE DEFENSE TOL PASS CATCHERSn=2456% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LOU SECONDARYn=18 · 1 ROOM50% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
TOL
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
LOU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−20
−17
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
TOL
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
LOU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
TOL
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
LOU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS58.9%
53.8%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS62.7%
72.4%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE3.7%
1.7%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = TOL, ORANGE = LOU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2025, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE