TUE 17:30 ET|NISSAN STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP35|O/U62.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
28
8-5
89
94
27
22%
92
68
32.8
-142
-3.0
HOME
30
9-4
54
71
60
53%
19
83
29.8
+120
+3.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2025CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALTENN28—ILL30
CLOSED TENN -3.0TOTAL 62.5ILL COVERED · 58 POINTS · UNDER
TENN
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
ILL
TENN
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
ILL
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=44
MARKET
TOTAL62.5
SPREADTENN -3.0
IMPLIED — TENN32.8
IMPLIED — ILL29.8
PACE COLLISION
FAST × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
TENNRECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs8.3-3.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+12.0
TENNESSEE won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ILLRECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs7.6-4.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+6.1
ILLINOIS won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERTENNESSEEILLINOIS2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB97%Nico IamaleavaPORTAL · UCLA · 90% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGaston MoorePORTAL · SOUTH FLORIDA · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL78%Cooper MaysOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJavontez SpragginsOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAndrej KaricOL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB68%Dylan SampsonDRAFTED · 63% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE57%Bru McCoyWR · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSquirrel WhitePORTAL · FLORIDA STATE · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONHolden StaesPORTAL · INDIANA · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION8 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL40%James Pearce Jr.DRAFTED · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONOmari ThomasDL · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONOmarr Norman-LottDRAFTED · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB38%Jalen SmithPORTAL · MISSISSIPPI STATE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKalib PerryPORTAL · LOUISVILLE · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKeenan PiliLB · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB36%Will BrooksDB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChristian HarrisonPORTAL · CINCINNATI · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJakobe ThomasPORTAL · MIAMI · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBGeorge MacIntyre · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
OLSam Pendleton · PORTAL ★4 · NOTRE DAMEWendell Moe Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · ARIZONADavid Sanders Jr. · SIGNEE ★52 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
RBDaune Morris · SIGNEE ★4Justin Baker · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TEDaSaahn Brame · SIGNEE ★4Travis Smith Jr. · SIGNEE ★4Radarious Jackson · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
DLIsaiah Campbell · SIGNEE ★4Mariyon Dye · SIGNEE ★4Ethan Utley · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBJaedon Harmon · SIGNEE ★4Christian Gass · SIGNEE ★4Jadon Perlotte · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DBTre Poteat · SIGNEE ★4Timothy Merritt · SIGNEE ★3Sidney Walton · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · TENNESSEE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
46.159 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
20.412 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
62.092 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB686847643 OF 4 GRADED
RB6666626366 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE787889872218 OF 22 GRADED
OL717188541614 OF 16 GRADED
DL717189912322 OF 23 GRADED
LB646477831212 OF 12 GRADED
DB555578612116 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE89th89
BLUE-CHIP RATIO59%91
RECRUITING CLASS#11 · 17/25 BC92
CLASS RANK TREND-1 · 3 CYCLES48
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-3 · 7 IN / 24 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 5th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
ILLBRET BIELEMA5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5858
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4444
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
TENNJOSH HEUPEL5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6969
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4949
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESTENN OFFENSEILL OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBTENNESSEE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEILLINOIS DEFENSE TENN QUARTERBACKSn=494% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ILL DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 57 PLAYERS17% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLTENNESSEE OFFENSEFRONT-7ILLINOIS DEFENSE TENN OFFENSIVE LINEn=1646% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ILL FRONT-7n=34 · 2 ROOMS37% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBTENNESSEE OFFENSEFRONT-7ILLINOIS DEFENSE TENN RUNNING BACKSn=637% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ILL FRONT-72 ROOMS · 34 PLAYERS35% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555446%0%LINEBACKERSLB
0.455488%11%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TETENNESSEE OFFENSESECONDARYILLINOIS DEFENSE TENN PASS CATCHERSn=2213% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ILL SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM0% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
TENN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ILL
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+2
−30
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
TENN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ILL
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
TENN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ILL
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS56.3%
58.1%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS64.3%
64.8%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.5%
0.9%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = TENN, ORANGE = ILL) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2025, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE