SAT 12:00 ET|JACK TRICE STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP21|O/U43.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
13
9-4
70
48
93
49%
9
70
20.0
+130
+3.0
HOME
16
8-4
49
63
67
58%
67
52
23.0
-150
-3.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2025CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALIOWA13—ISU16
CLOSED ISU -3.0TOTAL 43.0SPREAD PUSHED · 29 POINTS · UNDER
IOWA
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
ISU
IOWA
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
ISU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 2 FIELD n=50
MARKET
TOTAL43.0
SPREADISU -3.0
IMPLIED — IOWA20.0
IMPLIED — ISU23.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
44FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT15 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 15 positions on a 50-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
IOWARECORD UNDERSTATES
8-4ACTUALvs9.9-2.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME+13.8
IOWA won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ISURECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs8.1-3.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+7.3
IOWA STATE won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERIOWAIOWA STATE2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB87%Cade McNamaraPORTAL · EAST TENNESSEE STATE · 61% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrendan SullivanPORTAL · TULANE · 26% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
LB85%Jay HigginsLB · 66% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKyler FisherLB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB64%Kaleb JohnsonDRAFTED · 58% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB54%Quinn SchulteDB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSebastian CastroDB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJermari HarrisDB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL40%Connor ColbyDRAFTED · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMason RichmanDRAFTED · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL37%Deontae CraigDL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONYahya BlackDRAFTED · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE36%Luke LacheyDRAFTED · 28% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJohnny PascuzziPORTAL · TULANE · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBMark Gronowski · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH DAKOTA STATEJeremy Hecklinski · PORTAL ★3 · WAKE FORESTJimmy Sullivan · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
LBBurke Gautcher · SIGNEE ★4Carson Cooney · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
RBNathan McNeil · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBShahid Barros · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH DAKOTATy Hudkins · PORTAL ★3 · PURDUECJ Bell Jr. · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
OLBryce George · PORTAL ★3 · FERRIS STATELucas Allgeyer · SIGNEE ★3Joey VanWetzinga · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLBryce Hawthorne · PORTAL ★4 · SOUTH DAKOTA STATEJonah Pace · PORTAL ★3 · CENTRAL MICHIGANIose Epenesa · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
WR/TESam Phillips · PORTAL ★3 · CHATTANOOGAThomas Meyer · SIGNEE ★4Terrence Smith · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · IOWA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
53.979 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
56.585 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
52.572 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB595976063 OF 6 GRADED
RB5656597476 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE565644852113 OF 21 GRADED
OL707075981813 OF 18 GRADED
DL565682751816 OF 18 GRADED
LB515153731412 OF 14 GRADED
DB505076961912 OF 19 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE70th70
BLUE-CHIP RATIO15%63
RECRUITING CLASS#38 · 4/18 BC72
CLASS RANK TREND+3 · 3 CYCLES56
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 9 IN / 22 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 10th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
ISUMATT CAMPBELL10TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5151
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3030
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
IOWAKIRK FERENTZ10TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
2727
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESIOWA OFFENSEISU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBIOWA OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEIOWA STATE DEFENSE IOWA QUARTERBACKSn=6100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ISU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 53 PLAYERS27% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLIOWA OFFENSEFRONT-7IOWA STATE DEFENSE IOWA OFFENSIVE LINEn=182% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ISU FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS26% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBIOWA OFFENSEFRONT-7IOWA STATE DEFENSE IOWA RUNNING BACKSn=726% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ISU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS25% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.552963%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEIOWA OFFENSESECONDARYIOWA STATE DEFENSE IOWA PASS CATCHERSn=2115% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ISU SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM28% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
IOWA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ISU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−22
−28
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
IOWA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ISU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
IOWA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ISU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS69.4%
66.8%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS59.4%
72.7%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.1%
0.6%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = IOWA, ORANGE = ISU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2025, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE