SAT 12:00 ET|JONES AT&T STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP72|O/U60.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
14
5-7
7
26
6
11%
0
21
5.8
—
+48.5
HOME
62
12-2
80
60
95
59%
96
58
54.3
—
-48.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2025CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALKENT14—TTU62
CLOSED TTU -48.5TOTAL 60.0KENT COVERED · 76 POINTS · OVER
KENT
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
TTU
KENT
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
TTU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 2 FIELD n=50
MARKET
TOTAL60.0
SPREADTTU -48.5
IMPLIED — KENT5.8
IMPLIED — TTU54.3
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
56FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT10 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 10 positions on a 50-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
KENTRECORD OVERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs3.0-9.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+2.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-12.3
KENT STATE won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.0. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TTURECORD MATCHES
12-1ACTUALvs12.5-0.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+31.5
TEXAS TECH won 12 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 12.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERKENT STATETEXAS TECH2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB82%Ky ThomasRB · 53% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCurtis DouglasRB · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE79%Luke FlorieaWR · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONConner MuldowneyTE · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChrishon McCrayPORTAL · MICHIGAN STATE · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL74%Tony GeorgesOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJimto ObidegwuPORTAL · NORTH TEXAS · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChris FarrellOL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL72%Stephen DaleyPORTAL · INDIANA · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKaden BeattyPORTAL · WASHINGTON STATE · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLavell GibsonDL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB70%Josh BakaPORTAL · UAB · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDallas BranchCB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaylen DotsonDB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB63%Matt HarmonLB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRocco NichollPORTAL · SOUTH FLORIDA · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKam OldsPORTAL · KENTUCKY · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB61%Tommy UlatowskiPORTAL · KENNESAW STATE · 59% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBJordan Nubin · PORTAL ★3 · MINNESOTATaRyan Martin · SIGNEE ★3Anthony Jeffery · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TETerik Mulder · PORTAL ★3 · LIMESTONEMaurice Stephens · SIGNEE ★3Teaunn Hunter · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
OLRico Steele · PORTAL ★3 · BOWLING GREENMatthew Pajuste · PORTAL ★3 · BUFFALOTyler Meadows · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLJelani Davis · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTHERNDarian Blachewicz · SIGNEE ★3Bryce Griffin · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
DBSemaj Cross · PORTAL ★3 · LAFAYETTEJoel Cordoba · SIGNEE ★3Derrick Jackson · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
LBTrey Rubinstein · SIGNEE ★3Rafael Terrero Jr. · SIGNEE ★3Tanner Mintz · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
QBDeante Ruffin · SIGNEE ★3Nolan Good · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · KENT STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
30.321 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
26.018 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
32.334 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB414131675 OF 7 GRADED
RB4545161297 OF 9 GRADED
WR/TE565641652216 OF 22 GRADED
OL32322734158 OF 15 GRADED
DL393946601613 OF 16 GRADED
LB383822651110 OF 11 GRADED
DB353534531612 OF 16 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE7th7
BLUE-CHIP RATIO0%3
RECRUITING CLASS#93 · 0/22 BC31
CLASS RANK TREND+30 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 12 IN / 30 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
TTUJOEY MCGUIRE4TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8282
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8181
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
KENTMARK CARNEYFIRST SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1111
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6969
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESKENT OFFENSETTU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBKENT STATE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSETEXAS TECH DEFENSE KENT QUARTERBACKSn=794% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TTU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 53 PLAYERS57% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLKENT STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7TEXAS TECH DEFENSE KENT OFFENSIVE LINEn=1566% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TTU FRONT-7n=31 · 2 ROOMS49% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBKENT STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7TEXAS TECH DEFENSE KENT RUNNING BACKSn=988% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TTU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 31 PLAYERS47% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.557940%15%LINEBACKERSLB
0.457769%17%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEKENT STATE OFFENSESECONDARYTEXAS TECH DEFENSE KENT PASS CATCHERSn=2235% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TTU SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM63% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
KENT
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TTU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+2
−20
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
KENT
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TTU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
KENT
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TTU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS62.3%
58.7%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS60.9%
63.1%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.7%
4.3%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = KENT, ORANGE = TTU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2025, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE