SAT 22:15 ET|LAVELL EDWARDS STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP18|O/U44.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
3
4-8
67
23
68
19%
39
68
12.0
+625
+20.5
HOME
27
12-2
50
86
84
87%
56
85
32.5
-1000
-20.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2025CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALSTAN3—BYU27
CLOSED BYU -20.5TOTAL 44.5BYU COVERED · 30 POINTS · UNDER
STAN
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
BYU
STAN
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
BYU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 2 FIELD n=50
MARKET
TOTAL44.5
SPREADBYU -20.5
IMPLIED — STAN12.0
IMPLIED — BYU32.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
43FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT11 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 11 positions on a 50-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
STANRECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs3.1-8.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-10.3
STANFORD won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
BYURECORD MATCHES
11-2ACTUALvs10.1-2.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+12.9
BYU won 11 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 10.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERSTANFORDBYU2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB87%Ashton DanielsPORTAL · AUBURN · 72% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJustin LamsonPORTAL · MONTANA STATE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE66%Elic AyomanorDRAFTED · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEmmett Mosley VPORTAL · TEXAS · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTiger BachmeierPORTAL · BYU · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB51%Gaethan BernadelLB · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTristan SinclairLB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDavid BaileyPORTAL · TEXAS TECH · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
OL48%Jake MaikkulaPORTAL · OKLAHOMA · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLuke BaklenkoPORTAL · OKLAHOMA · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLevi RogersOL · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL22%Tobin PhillipsDL · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB11%Zahran ManleyCB · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB8%Ryan ButlerRB · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBDylan Rizk · PORTAL ★3 · UCFBen Gulbranson · PORTAL ★3 · OREGON STATEBear Bachmeier · SIGNEE ★4REFILLED
WR/TEDavid Pantelis · PORTAL ★3 · YALEBrendan Doyle · PORTAL ★3 · MEMPHISC.J. Williams · PORTAL ★3 · WISCONSIN4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBHunter Barth · PORTAL ★3 · CALIFORNIALandon McComber · SIGNEE ★3Mickey Vaccarello · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLNiki Prongos · PORTAL ★3 · UCLAJosh Williams · SIGNEE ★3Emeka Ugorji · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLGabe Kaminski · SIGNEE ★3Adam Shovlin · SIGNEE ★3Kole Briehler · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DBSam Neely III · PORTAL ★3 · WAKE FORESTLonnie McAllister III · SIGNEE ★3Omari Gaines · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
RBNO STARTING ROLE OPENEDINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · STANFORD
CARRIED COMPOSITE
62.995 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
48.065 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
72.197 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB2222583253 OF 5 GRADED
RB5353639565 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE545472602013 OF 20 GRADED
OL34347351169 OF 16 GRADED
DL545457981413 OF 14 GRADED
LB434372802215 OF 22 GRADED
DB515157821917 OF 19 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE67th67
BLUE-CHIP RATIO11%56
RECRUITING CLASS#56 · 2/17 BC59
CLASS RANK TREND-10 · 3 CYCLES30
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 17 IN / 27 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
BYUKALANI SITAKE10TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5454
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7979
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
STANFRANK REICHFIRST SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6868
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4444
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESSTAN OFFENSEBYU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBSTANFORD OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEBYU DEFENSE STAN QUARTERBACKSn=568% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BYU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 55 PLAYERS17% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLSTANFORD OFFENSEFRONT-7BYU DEFENSE STAN OFFENSIVE LINEn=1649% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BYU FRONT-7n=35 · 2 ROOMS29% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBSTANFORD OFFENSEFRONT-7BYU DEFENSE STAN RUNNING BACKSn=65% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BYU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 35 PLAYERS27% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556157%9%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TESTANFORD OFFENSESECONDARYBYU DEFENSE STAN PASS CATCHERSn=2040% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BYU SECONDARYn=20 · 1 ROOM8% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
STAN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BYU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+49
−38
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
STAN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BYU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
STAN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BYU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS58.5%
62.5%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS80.9%
56.5%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.5%
0.7%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = STAN, ORANGE = BYU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2025, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE