WED 20:00 ET|HUSKIE STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP6|O/U53.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
15
7-5
42
58
23
53%
65
0
25.0
—
+3.5
HOME
38
8-5
37
8
79
63%
65
24
28.5
—
-3.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2018CONSENSUS · CONSENSUS
FINALTOL15—NIU38
CLOSED NIU -3.5TOTAL 53.5NIU COVERED · 53 POINTS · UNDER
TOL
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
NIU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2018 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 11 FIELD n=61
MARKET
TOTAL53.5
SPREADNIU -3.5
IMPLIED — TOL25.0
IMPLIED — NIU28.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
46FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT6 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 6 positions on a 61-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2018 · FULL SEASON
TOLRECORD UNDERSTATES
7-5ACTUALvs8.1-3.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+10.9
TOLEDO won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
NIURECORD OVERSTATES
8-5ACTUALvs6.2-6.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD6-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-0.8
NORTHERN ILLINOIS won 8 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 6.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERTOLEDONORTHERN ILLINOIS2018 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB0%Logan WoodsideDRAFTED · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB0%Brad SmithRB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE0%Darryl RichardsWR · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL0%Elijah NkansahOL · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL0%Malik JonesDE · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB0%Jack LinchLB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB0%Kennedy FrazierDB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBNO STARTING ROLE OPENEDINTACT
RBNO STARTING ROLE OPENEDINTACT
WR/TEJalynn Williams · SIGNEE ★3Jalin Cooper · SIGNEE ★3Nate Bauer · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
OLLavel Dumont · SIGNEE ★3Samuel Baker · SIGNEE ★3Nick Carey · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
DLDerrius Mullins · SIGNEE ★3Devan Rogers · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
LBDaniel Bolden · SIGNEE ★3D'Andre Ragin · SIGNEE ★3Terrance Taylor · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
DBShamaur McDowell · SIGNEE ★3Caleb Sutherland · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · TOLEDO
CARRIED COMPOSITE
0.00 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB———15CARRIED FROM 2017 · NOTHING GRADED YET
RB———486CARRIED FROM 2017 · NOTHING GRADED YET
WR/TE————20CARRIED FROM 2017 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL————16CARRIED FROM 2017 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL————20CARRIED FROM 2017 · NOTHING GRADED YET
LB————15CARRIED FROM 2017 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DB————21CARRIED FROM 2017 · NOTHING GRADED YET
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE42nd42
BLUE-CHIP RATIO0%17
RECRUITING CLASS#67 · 0/27 BC50
CLASS RANK TREND+21 · 3 CYCLES92
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX28%82
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
NIUROD CAREY3TH SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
TOLJASON CANDLE3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5151
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4949
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESTOL OFFENSENIU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBTOLEDO OFFENSEFULL DEFENSENORTHERN ILLINOIS DEFENSE TOL QUARTERBACKSn=599% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NIU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 39 PLAYERSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLTOLEDO OFFENSEFRONT-7NORTHERN ILLINOIS DEFENSE TOL OFFENSIVE LINEn=16RETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NIU FRONT-7n=24 · 2 ROOMSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBTOLEDO OFFENSEFRONT-7NORTHERN ILLINOIS DEFENSE TOL RUNNING BACKSn=652% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NIU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 24 PLAYERSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TETOLEDO OFFENSESECONDARYNORTHERN ILLINOIS DEFENSE TOL PASS CATCHERSn=20RETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NIU SECONDARYn=15 · 1 ROOMRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
TOL
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NIU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−10
+1
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
TOL
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NIU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS63.3%
62.2%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS58.1%
57.7%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.5%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = TOL, ORANGE = NIU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2018, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE