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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 4›KENN @ ARST›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
SDSU @ TOL79
ORE @ USC76
WAKE @ LOU71
OU @ UGA71
JMU @ ODU71
MINN @ WASH69
MIZ @ MSST69
KSU @ CIN69
TA&M @ LSU69
NAVY @ UAB68
TEX @ TENN68
NU @ IU67
CLEM @ CAL66
HAW @ WYO66
TLSA @ ARK66
IOWA @ MICH65
MISS @ FLA64
OKST @ WVU64
ILL @ OSU64
ARIZ @ WSU64
WIS @ PSU63
UTAH @ ISU62
CMU @ MIA62
APP @ NCSU61
NEB @ MSU61
UCLA @ MD61
VAN @ AUB61
MOST @ SMU60
SC @ ALA60
COLO @ BAY60
GT @ STAN60
TCU @ UCF59
SHSU @ TTU57
ND @ PUR57
USA @ UK57
BOIS @ WMU55
USF @ BGSU55
AF @ NEV55
TROY @ USU55
HOU @ GASO54
DEL @ UVA52
VT @ BC52
UNLV @ AKR52
RICE @ FRES52
CONN @ M-OH48
LIB @ CCU47
ORST @ UTEP47
CSU @ UTSA46
ARMY @ TEM44
UNM @ NMSU40
NIU @ GAST39
KENN @ ARST37
BALL @ KENT34
FAU @ ULM32
MTSU @ JXST32
UL @ CLT30
USM @ TULN30
MASS @ SAC0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
KENNESAW STATE
ARKANSAS STATE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 19:00 ET|CENTENNIAL BANK STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP31|O/U53.5COLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
115FPI
KENNCUSAKENNESAW STATE
1-2
4
30
7
6%
54
6
24.5
+160
+4.5
HOME
—AP
111FPI
ARSTSBCARKANSAS STATE
1-2
34
13
33
30%
7
15
29.0
-192
-4.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 4 FIELD n=58
MARKET
TOTAL53.5
SPREADARST -4.5
IMPLIED — KENN24.5
IMPLIED — ARST29.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
42FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
BY MARKET TOTAL
24 / 58
BY ENVIRONMENT
40 / 57
DISAGREEMENT16 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 16 positions on a 57-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right. The market board is 58 games because -1 carry no published total, so the two are not the same field.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × SLOW
KENN PACE27.4s
54
ARST PACE32.7s
7
SHARED PACE30.1s
30
PLAY VOLUME121
30
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
KENN30CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
9
PROE
27
TEMPO
54
EXPLOSIVE9p
9
PROE27p
27
TEMPO54p
54
ARST40CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
27
PROE
86
TEMPO
7
EXPLOSIVE27p
27
PROE86p
86
TEMPO7p
7
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
KENNRECORD OVERSTATES
10-3ACTUALvs7.7-5.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+2.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD6-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+4.0
KENNESAW STATE won 10 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 7.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ARSTRECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs5.2-6.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME-2.9
ARKANSAS STATE won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERKENNESAW STATEARKANSAS STATE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Amari OdomPORTAL · SYRACUSE · 70% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDexter Williams IIPORTAL · TULSA · 29% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB100%Coleman BennettRB · 49% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChase BelcherRB · 31% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAlexander DiggsRB · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DB65%JeRico Washington Jr.PORTAL · BOISE STATE · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCaleb OffordDB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMilon JonesDB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE64%Gabriel BenyardWR · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChristian MossWR · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONClayton Coppock Jr.PORTAL · COASTAL CAROLINA · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL60%Brandon BestOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJosiah ChenaultOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJT PenningtonOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL56%Tylon DunlapDL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRoderick DanielsDL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAdam WatkinsDL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB25%Garland BenyardLB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaden KellyPORTAL · GEORGIA STATE · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
RBLatrelle Murrell · PORTAL ★3 · WEST GEORGIACelley Davis · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBTony Williams · PORTAL ★3 · UCFLuke Evans · PORTAL ★3 · MIAMI (OH)Perry Fisher · PORTAL ★3 · UAB3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEBrayden Munroe · PORTAL ★3 · NORTHERN COLORADOZion Booker · PORTAL ★3 · TULSADylan Gary · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIA SOUTHERN1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
OLLuke Duska · PORTAL ★3 · ELONMateo Guevara · PORTAL ★3 · MIDDLE TENNESSEEPrecious Ekeh · PORTAL ★3 · CENTRAL CONNECTICUT1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DLKai Russell · PORTAL ★3 · WINGATECorey Kelly · PORTAL ★3 · BAYLORZakir Abdul-Salaam · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
LBAlfred Thomas · PORTAL ★3 · TOWSONJecari Bryson · PORTAL ★3 · GARDNER-WEBBOmari Stephenson · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · KENNESAW STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
33.834 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
11.56 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
45.761 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB464691053 OF 5 GRADED
RB626218074 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE444441432013 OF 20 GRADED
OL454535311911 OF 19 GRADED
DL525221601413 OF 14 GRADED
LB434327371614 OF 16 GRADED
DB515135472214 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE4th4
BLUE-CHIP RATIO11%49
RECRUITING CLASS#120 · 0/13 BC11
CLASS RANK TREND+10 · 3 CYCLES70
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+1 · 29 IN / 19 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
ARSTBUTCH JONES6TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7272
PACE
7272
PASS RATE
7474
EXPLOSIVENESS
4949
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3131
HAVOC
5353
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
KENNJERRY MACK2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3030
PACE
7575
PASS RATE
2525
EXPLOSIVENESS
8989
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3939
HAVOC
6969
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESKENN OFFENSEARST OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBKENNESAW STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
92OF 138
TAL
91
PERF
46
RET
0
NATIONAL
100OF 136
RET
21
FULL DEFENSEARKANSAS STATE DEFENSE
KENN QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
SKYLER WILLIAMSQBRET
491ST YR——UNR—
LANDON VARNESQBTRUE FR
482ND YR——UNR—
RICKIE COLLINSQBPORTAL · SYRACUSE
463RD YR6291★4-43
JAMARCUS HARRISONQBTRUE FR
371ST YR—42★3—
JULIAN LAPENEQBTRUE FR
301ST YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARST DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 52 PLAYERS64% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
637%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
337%0%
SECONDARYDB
4460%5%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLKENNESAW STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
95OF 138
TAL
35
PERF
45
RET
31
DL
27OF 138
DL RET
7
LB
121OF 138
LB RET
7
FRONT-7ARKANSAS STATE DEFENSE
KENN OFFENSIVE LINEn=1969% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PRECIOUS EKEHOLPORTAL · CENTRAL CONNECTICUT
523RD YR—45★3—
LUKE DUSKAOLPORTAL · ELON
524TH YR—45★3—
CHASE STEVENSOLRET
502ND YR—2★3—
JAMIEL WILLIAMSOLRET
501ST YR——UNR—
DARIUS NEALSOLPORTAL · TENNESSEE STATE
492ND YR—17★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARST FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS93% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
SHAKAI WOODSDTPORTAL · MIDDLE TENNESSEE
544TH YR—28★3-37 2025
RYAN REESEDTRET
502ND YR4762★3—
TONY CARTERDERET
462ND YR4454★3—
KAM MOORELBPORTAL · UCF
414TH YR—9★3—
ROBERT STEVENSLBTRUE FR
384TH YR20—UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBKENNESAW STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
26OF 138
TAL
18
PERF
62
RET
0
DL
27OF 138
DL RET
7
LB
121OF 138
LB RET
7
FRONT-7ARKANSAS STATE DEFENSE
KENN RUNNING BACKSn=7100% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LATRELLE MURRELLRBPORTAL · WEST GEORGIA
523RD YR—28★3—
TRISTON MORGANRBPORTAL · BENEDICT
524TH YR—2★3—
DEVIN INGRAMRBRET
522ND YR——UNR—
BOOGIE WOODS IIIRBTRUE FR
512ND YR——UNR+0
CELLEY DAVISRBTRUE FR
351ST YR—61★3—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARST FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS93% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.55637%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.45337%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEKENNESAW STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
98OF 138
TAL
41
PERF
44
RET
43
DB
109OF 138
DB RET
60
SECONDARYARKANSAS STATE DEFENSE
KENN PASS CATCHERSn=2057% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
REED JESIOLOWSKITETRUE FR
613RD YR—42★3—
DYLAN GARYWRPORTAL · GEORGIA SOUTHERN
523RD YR2828★3-59
ZION BOOKERWRPORTAL · TULSA
514TH YR7045★3+8
JAVON ROGERSWRRET
513RD YR3852★3+38
BRAYDEN MUNROEWRPORTAL · NORTHERN COLORADO
504TH YR—64★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARST SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM40% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
FIVE HAMILTONSPORTAL · KENNESAW STATE
584TH YR7328★3+25
KYLE WILLIAMSCBRET
533RD YR4430★3—
MALEKHI WEEDONSRET
522ND YR—43★3—
BRANDON GREILSRET
504TH YR7831★3-29
NOAH FLORESCBTRUE FR
494TH YR70—UNR-28
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
KENN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ARST
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
46.2
45.0
— OFFENSE
49.8
51.1
— DEFENSE
42.5
39.0
SP+ OVERALL
-10.7
-7.1
FPI
-10.9
-10.2
ELO
1285
1319
TALENT
503
606
PRODUCTION
18
23
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+2
+9
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.11
0.04
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
KENN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ARST
OFF EFFICIENCY
39
45
DEF EFFICIENCY
42
29
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
83
11
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
59
29
FINISHING DRIVES
29
9
FIELD POSITION
52
27
TURNOVER MARGIN
58
24
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
KENN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ARST
PASS RATE
53.8%
44.2%
PACE
27.4s
32.7s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
48.9%
63.7%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
59.7%
68.3%
PLAYS / GAME
65.7
55.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
3.0%
2.4%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = KENN, ORANGE = ARST) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE