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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 6›USA @ ARST›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
USM @ TROY0
JXST @ KENN0
NMSU @ FIU0
MOST @ WKU0
SHSU @ LIB0
USA @ ARST0
USF @ UTSA0
FSU @ LOU0
IOWA @ WASH0
WYO @ SJSU0
WSU @ USU0
ISU @ BYU0
HAW @ ASU0
MINN @ PUR0
JMU @ GASO0
ILL @ MSU0
MISS @ VAN0
SYR @ UVA0
CLT @ UNT0
MD @ OSU0
HOU @ KSU0
USC @ PSU0
ODU @ APP0
TENN @ ARK0
UCF @ OKST0
LSU @ UK0
CMU @ OHIO0
CONN @ TEM0
WAKE @ NCSU0
RICE @ ECU0
ARIZ @ WVU0
UNC @ PITT0
CCU @ MRSH0
BALL @ NU0
KENT @ WMU0
UCLA @ ORE0
SAC @ BGSU0
KU @ UTAH0
M-OH @ MASS0
TA&M @ MIZ0
IU @ NEB0
UL @ LT0
NEV @ UTEP0
SC @ FLA0
VT @ CAL0
DUKE @ GT0
UAB @ MEM0
UGA @ ALA0
BUF @ TOL0
TULN @ ARMY0
STAN @ ND0
TEX @ OU0
EMU @ AKR0
TLSA @ NAVY0
SDSU @ ORST0
NDSU @ UNLV0
AF @ NIU0
BOIS @ FRES0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
SOUTH ALABAMA
ARKANSAS STATE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
THU 19:30 ET|CENTENNIAL BANK STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP12|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
99FPI
USASBCSOUTH ALABAMA
2-1
23
38
13
79%
94
24
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
111FPI
ARSTSBCARKANSAS STATE
1-2
34
13
33
30%
7
9
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
USA55CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
66
PROE
6
TEMPO
94
EXPLOSIVE66p
66
PROE6p
6
TEMPO94p
94
ARST40CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
27
PROE
86
TEMPO
7
EXPLOSIVE27p
27
PROE86p
86
TEMPO7p
7
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
USARECORD UNDERSTATES
4-8ACTUALvs5.0-7.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-3.9
SOUTH ALABAMA won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.0. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ARSTRECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs5.2-6.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME-2.9
ARKANSAS STATE won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERSOUTH ALABAMAARKANSAS STATE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DL71%Ed Smith IVPORTAL · TULANE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRJ Moss Jr.PORTAL · FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTyler ThomasPORTAL · KENTUCKY · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB68%Nehemiah ChandlerPORTAL · FLORIDA STATE · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChristopher Wallace Jr.S · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONWesley MillerPORTAL · FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL67%Malachi PreciadoOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAmaury WigginsOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAsher HaleOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE65%Trent ThomasPORTAL · TENNESSEE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDevin VoisinWR · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMiller McCrumbyTE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB60%Blayne MyrickPORTAL · MIAMI (OH) · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDarius McKenzieLB · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDalton HughesPORTAL · TULANE · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB51%Kentrel BullockRB · 51% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
QB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DLAntwon Thomas · SIGNEE ★3Brayden Hurst · SIGNEE ★3Tyler Wiley · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBTomareo Johnson Jr. · SIGNEE ★3Teryn Green · SIGNEE ★3Deon Callins · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
OLCam'Ron Thompson · SIGNEE ★3Artem Korchagin Jr. · SIGNEE ★3Aydan Newell · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TEDominic White · SIGNEE ★3Julius Mathis · SIGNEE ★3Khatori Marion · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
LBSeidrion Langston · PORTAL ★3 · UL MONROEZechariah Hall · SIGNEE ★3Tyray Darensburg · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
RBDonovan Crow · SIGNEE ★3Lavonte Cole · SIGNEE ★3Caleb Wynn · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
QBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · SOUTH ALABAMA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
33.231 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
33.042 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
33.330 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB35353810051 OF 5 GRADED
RB6060569484 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE4444464122CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL434347020CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL33332717125 OF 12 GRADED
LB2424288194 OF 19 GRADED
DB49492864238 OF 23 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE23rd23
BLUE-CHIP RATIO2%11
RECRUITING CLASS#77 · 0/26 BC43
CLASS RANK TREND+7 · 3 CYCLES64
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 12 IN / 30 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
ARSTBUTCH JONES6TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7272
PACE
7272
PASS RATE
7474
EXPLOSIVENESS
4949
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3131
HAVOC
5353
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
USAMAJOR APPLEWHITE3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1717
PACE
5757
PASS RATE
1717
EXPLOSIVENESS
3030
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8282
HAVOC
3535
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESUSA OFFENSEARST OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBSOUTH ALABAMA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
123OF 138
TAL
38
PERF
35
RET
100
NATIONAL
100OF 136
RET
21
FULL DEFENSEARKANSAS STATE DEFENSE
USA QUARTERBACKSn=50% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JARED HOLLINSQBRET
493RD YR2262★3—
BISHOP DAVENPORTQBRET
484TH YR7738★3+25
TAYLOR JACOBS JR.QBTRUE FR
351ST YR——★3—
AADEN SHAMBURGERQBTRUE FR
301ST YR——UNR—
JERRY HORNEQBTRUE FR
302ND YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARST DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 52 PLAYERS64% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
637%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
337%0%
SECONDARYDB
4460%5%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLSOUTH ALABAMA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
98OF 138
TAL
47
PERF
43
RET
0
DL
27OF 138
DL RET
7
LB
121OF 138
LB RET
7
FRONT-7ARKANSAS STATE DEFENSE
USA OFFENSIVE LINEn=20100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
REESE OSEI-WUSUOLRET
604TH YR—0★2—
KENTON JERIDOOLRET
584TH YR—45★3+29 2025
JAMAL SILEROLRET
493RD YR——UNR—
ETHAN HUBBARDOLRET
494TH YR—64★3-34 2025
DEVIN WHITEOLRET
452ND YR—52★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARST FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS93% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
SHAKAI WOODSDTPORTAL · MIDDLE TENNESSEE
544TH YR—28★3-37 2025
RYAN REESEDTRET
502ND YR4762★3—
TONY CARTERDERET
462ND YR4454★3—
KAM MOORELBPORTAL · UCF
414TH YR—9★3—
ROBERT STEVENSLBTRUE FR
384TH YR20—UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBSOUTH ALABAMA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
31OF 138
TAL
56
PERF
60
RET
94
DL
27OF 138
DL RET
7
LB
121OF 138
LB RET
7
FRONT-7ARKANSAS STATE DEFENSE
USA RUNNING BACKSn=86% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PJ MARTINRBRET
594TH YR5935★3+11
TRAE'VON DUNBARRBRET
523RD YR977★3+35
KEENAN PHILLIPSRBRET
483RD YR7263★3-15
CALEB WYNNRBTRUE FR
371ST YR——UNR—
ANTHONY JEFFERYRBTRUE FR
352ND YR—34★3—
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARST FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS93% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.55637%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.45337%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TESOUTH ALABAMA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
96OF 138
TAL
46
PERF
44
RET
41
DB
109OF 138
DB RET
60
SECONDARYARKANSAS STATE DEFENSE
USA PASS CATCHERSn=2259% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MICAH WOODSWRRET
514TH YR37—★3-46
ROD GIBBSTERET
484TH YR45—UNR-36
BRENDAN JENKINSWRRET
474TH YR4228★3+25
JEREMIAH JONES-THOMASWRRET
462ND YR1730★3—
ANTHONY EAGERWRRET
444TH YR7953★3-6
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARST SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM40% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
FIVE HAMILTONSPORTAL · KENNESAW STATE
584TH YR7328★3+25
KYLE WILLIAMSCBRET
533RD YR4430★3—
MALEKHI WEEDONSRET
522ND YR—43★3—
BRANDON GREILSRET
504TH YR7831★3-29
NOAH FLORESCBTRUE FR
494TH YR70—UNR-28
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
USA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ARST
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
41.0
45.0
— OFFENSE
36.4
51.1
— DEFENSE
45.7
39.0
SP+ OVERALL
-10.3
-7.1
FPI
-7.3
-10.2
ELO
1393
1319
TALENT
573
606
PRODUCTION
16
23
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−10
+9
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.02
0.04
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
USA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ARST
OFF EFFICIENCY
44
45
DEF EFFICIENCY
31
29
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
27
11
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
42
29
FINISHING DRIVES
61
9
FIELD POSITION
59
27
TURNOVER MARGIN
43
24
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
USA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ARST
PASS RATE
35.8%
44.2%
PACE
23.9s
32.7s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
70.5%
63.7%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
50.0%
68.3%
PLAYS / GAME
75.3
55.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
2.4%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = USA, ORANGE = ARST) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE