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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 7›ARST @ USM›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
DEL @ MTSU0
FIU @ JXST0
KENN @ MOST0
WKU @ SHSU0
GASO @ ODU0
ECU @ UAB0
CSU @ TXST0
MEM @ TULN0
WASH @ PUR0
APP @ CCU0
MSST @ LSU0
OSU @ IU0
NU @ MSU0
UNC @ DUKE0
ALA @ TENN0
AUB @ UGA0
UVA @ SMU0
TCU @ BAY0
UNM @ HAW0
PITT @ BC0
FLA @ TEX0
OKST @ HOU0
BALL @ BGSU0
TOL @ EMU0
ARST @ USM0
LT @ ULM0
ARK @ VAN0
CIN @ WVU0
KU @ KSU0
OHIO @ SAC0
MASS @ BUF0
KENT @ USF0
WAKE @ CAL0
UTAH @ COLO0
ND @ BYU0
GAST @ JMU0
NAVY @ UTSA0
RUTG @ MD0
TLSA @ RICE0
MIZ @ MISS0
CLT @ TEM0
AKR @ M-OH0
UK @ OU0
PSU @ MICH0
FSU @ MIA0
TROY @ UL0
GT @ VT0
WIS @ UCLA0
LOU @ SYR0
ASU @ TTU0
WMU @ CMU0
NEB @ ORE0
FAU @ ARMY0
NIU @ WYO0
UNLV @ AF0
WSU @ ORST0
NEV @ NDSU0
SJSU @ UTEP0
FRES @ SDSU0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
ARKANSAS STATE
SOUTHERN MISS
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|M. M. ROBERTS STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP2|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
105FPI
ARSTSBCARKANSAS STATE
1-1
34
13
33
30%
15
12
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
97FPI
USMSBCSOUTHERN MISS
1-1
32
27
17
90%
69
31
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
ARST45CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
34
PROE
86
TEMPO
15
EXPLOSIVE34p
34
PROE86p
86
TEMPO15p
15
USM41CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
9
PROE
46
TEMPO
69
EXPLOSIVE9p
9
PROE46p
46
TEMPO69p
69
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
ARSTRECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs5.2-6.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME-2.9
ARKANSAS STATE won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
USMRECORD MATCHES
7-5ACTUALvs6.6-5.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+2.4
SOUTHERN MISS won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERARKANSAS STATESOUTHERN MISS2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Jaylen RaynorPORTAL · IOWA STATE · 99% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL93%Ethan HasslerDL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSimeon MitchellDT · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCody SiglerPORTAL · AUBURN · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION9 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB76%Aaron AlexanderPORTAL · NORTH TEXAS · 32% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKyle TaylorLB · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJavante MackeyPORTAL · TEXAS STATE · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE45%Tyler FortenberryPORTAL · IOWA STATE · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCorey RuckerWR · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB38%Avante DickersonCB · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTrenton Alan YoweCB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL28%Riley McGeheeOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNoah SmithOL · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB6%Ja'Quez CrossPORTAL · APP STATE · 3% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBTrey Owens · PORTAL ★3 · TEXASJeremy St-Hilaire · PORTAL ★3 · VANDERBILTREFILLED
DLTyeland Coleman · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA STATEAJ Thomas · PORTAL ★3 · MCNEESESultan Badmus · PORTAL ★3 · TEMPLE3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBJoshua Ofor · PORTAL ★3 · NC STATETre Stevens · PORTAL ★3 · LAFAYETTEMckinley McShan · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
WR/TEBoski Barrett · PORTAL ★3 · VANDERBILTDeshaun Fedd · SIGNEE ★3Ty'lan Fortune · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBMakai Shahid · PORTAL ★3 · YOUNGSTOWN STATEPaul Risper · SIGNEE ★3KeAndre Gibson · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLManasse Itete · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA STATEJoshua Austin · SIGNEE ★3Cooper Sherrod · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
RBSolomon Baggett · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · ARKANSAS STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
50.178 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
73.197 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
34.937 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB545464051 OF 5 GRADED
RB26262481102 OF 10 GRADED
WR/TE4343275621CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL525230021CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL6363387215 OF 21 GRADED
LB333358792 OF 9 GRADED
DB44443260229 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE34th34
BLUE-CHIP RATIO4%24
RECRUITING CLASS#85 · 0/21 BC37
CLASS RANK TREND-7 · 3 CYCLES36
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 24 IN / 37 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 6th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
USMBLAKE ANDERSONFIRST SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
2424
PACE
9494
PASS RATE
3939
EXPLOSIVENESS
4343
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5858
HAVOC
6262
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
ARSTBUTCH JONES6TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7272
PACE
7272
PASS RATE
7474
EXPLOSIVENESS
4949
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3131
HAVOC
5353
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESARST OFFENSEUSM OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBARKANSAS STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
64OF 138
TAL
64
PERF
54
RET
0
NATIONAL
80OF 136
RET
7
FULL DEFENSESOUTHERN MISS DEFENSE
ARST QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TREY OWENSQBPORTAL · TEXAS
493RD YR3364★3+32
DREW DICKEYQBPORTAL · VANDERBILT
444TH YR—9★3—
ETHAN CRAWFORDQBRET
454TH YR—5★3-13 2025
JEREMY ST-HILAIREQBPORTAL · VANDERBILT
373RD YR—45★3—
MASON SCHUBERTQBTRUE FR
302ND YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USM DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 52 PLAYERS87% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
486%5%
LINEBACKERSLB
4741%0%
SECONDARYDB
587%23%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLARKANSAS STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
72OF 138
TAL
30
PERF
52
RET
0
DL
79OF 138
DL RET
6
LB
74OF 138
LB RET
41
FRONT-7SOUTHERN MISS DEFENSE
ARST OFFENSIVE LINEn=21100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TRISTIAN SMITHOLRET
784TH YR—45★3+50 2025
MASON MYERSOLRET
554TH YR—40★3+38 2025
GABE FORTSONOLRET
524TH YR—17★3—
CAMERON AMBROSEOLRET
514TH YR——UNR—
WIL SAXTONOLRET
504TH YR—17★3+14 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USM FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS80% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
XAVIER MCIVERDLPORTAL · EAST CAROLINA
514TH YR—45★3—
MATHIS HAYGOODLBRET
503RD YR59—UNR+16
MELVIN SPRIGGSLBPORTAL · AKRON
493RD YR7017★3+12
JEFFERY RUSH JR.DLTRUE FR
472ND YR2228★3—
WILL SMITHDLPORTAL · NORTH TEXAS
442ND YR3864★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBARKANSAS STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
136OF 138
TAL
24
PERF
26
RET
81
DL
79OF 138
DL RET
6
LB
74OF 138
LB RET
41
FRONT-7SOUTHERN MISS DEFENSE
ARST RUNNING BACKSn=1019% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KENYON CLAYRBRET
424TH YR9517★3-5
EZELL JOLLYRBTRUE FR
414TH YR5857★3-49
TIMOTHY CARTERRBTRUE FR
373RD YR——UNR—
SOLOMON BAGGETTRBTRUE FR
351ST YR—52★3—
JAMES LEERBTRUE FR
304TH YR——UNR—
SHOW ALL 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USM FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS78% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.55486%5%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.454741%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEARKANSAS STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
101OF 138
TAL
27
PERF
43
RET
56
DB
35OF 138
DB RET
7
SECONDARYSOUTHERN MISS DEFENSE
ARST PASS CATCHERSn=2144% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CHAUNCY COBBWRRET
564TH YR8926★3+6
JOSHUA BURRELLTEPORTAL · FURMAN
504TH YR979★3—
HUNTER SUMMERSWRRET
474TH YR9217★3-12
JABARI BUSHTERET
473RD YR4232★3-16
NANA BURRISWRRET
454TH YR—17★3-19 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USM SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM93% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CHAMP LEWISDBPORTAL · TULSA
473RD YR5462★3-26
KOLBY PEAVYDBPORTAL · ALABAMA
463RD YR2017★3—
KOBI ALBERTDBPORTAL · UCONN
463RD YR3917★3—
JEREMIAH DILLONCBTRUE FR
464TH YR—88★4—
JYAIRE BROWNDBPORTAL · UCF
454TH YR6845★3-35
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
ARST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
USM
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
45.0
47.9
— OFFENSE
51.1
51.5
— DEFENSE
39.0
44.2
SP+ OVERALL
-7.1
-16.2
FPI
-8.8
-7.1
ELO
1349
1285
TALENT
606
603
PRODUCTION
23
7
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+9
+31
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.04
0.13
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
ARST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
USM
OFF EFFICIENCY
45
21
DEF EFFICIENCY
29
50
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
11
82
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
29
62
FINISHING DRIVES
9
38
FIELD POSITION
27
41
TURNOVER MARGIN
24
94
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
ARST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
USM
PASS RATE
42.3%
44.2%
PACE
32.4s
26.1s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
64.4%
60.5%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
66.7%
62.1%
PLAYS / GAME
55.5
69.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
3.6%
2.2%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = ARST, ORANGE = USM) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE