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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 9›CCU @ GAST›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
DEL @ WKU0
SHSU @ MOST0
KENN @ MTSU0
JXST @ NMSU0
TROY @ JMU0
FAU @ UNT0
TULN @ CLT0
BAY @ UCF0
KENT @ SAC0
STAN @ LOU0
ARIZ @ TTU0
ILL @ MD0
ARMY @ MEM0
BC @ DUKE0
AUB @ MISS0
LT @ USA0
GT @ PITT0
CCU @ GAST0
KU @ TCU0
USM @ ULM0
UNM @ SJSU0
UVA @ WAKE0
UTAH @ CIN0
MRSH @ ODU0
ORST @ FRES0
NU @ ORE0
OSU @ USC0
MSST @ TEX0
WIS @ IOWA0
SMU @ SYR0
PUR @ PSU0
TEM @ ECU0
WASH @ NEB0
CLEM @ FSU0
ASU @ BYU0
OKST @ ISU0
MICH @ RUTG0
SC @ OU0
MINN @ IU0
MIA @ UNC0
APP @ GASO0
NEV @ UCLA0
UAB @ USF0
CAL @ NCSU0
MIZ @ ARK0
KSU @ COLO0
BGSU @ WMU0
ND @ NAVY0
CONN @ AF0
FIU @ LIB0
CSU @ USU0
UTEP @ NDSU0
FLA @ UGA0
WSU @ SDSU0
TXST @ BOIS0
NIU @ UNLV0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
COASTAL CAROLINA
GEORGIA STATE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|CENTER PARC STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP1|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
111FPI
CCUSBCCOASTAL CAROLINA
1-1
24
32
23
15%
46
42
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
107FPI
GASTSBCGEORGIA STATE
2-0
23
41
22
47%
73
26
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
CCU45CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
69
PROE
19
TEMPO
46
EXPLOSIVE69p
69
PROE19p
19
TEMPO46p
46
GAST60CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
27
PROE
79
TEMPO
73
EXPLOSIVE27p
27
PROE79p
79
TEMPO73p
73
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
CCURECORD OVERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs3.4-8.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+2.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-11.1
COASTAL CAROLINA won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
GASTRECORD UNDERSTATES
1-11ACTUALvs2.1-9.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-18.1
GEORGIA STATE won 1 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERCOASTAL CAROLINAGEORGIA STATE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Tad HudsonQB · 65% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSamari CollierPORTAL · DELAWARE STATE · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMJ MorrisQB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL90%Zeke Durham-CampbellPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNoah ArinzeDE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSawyer Goram-WelchNT · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL71%Thomas JohnsonOL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNick Del GrandeOL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJoseph HansonOL · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE67%Bryson GravesPORTAL · DELAWARE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrooks JohnsonTE · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCameron WrightWR · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB65%Xamarion GordonS · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAvyonne JonesS · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMyles MooyoungCB · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION9 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB56%Dontae LunanLB · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLuke MurphyPORTAL · UCONN · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONShane BruceLB · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB54%Ja'Vin SimpkinsPORTAL · UAB · 41% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJalen JohnRB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBTrever Jackson · PORTAL ★3 · ARKANSASOsiris Lopez · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DLDonovan Grayson · PORTAL ★3 · SAMFORDMitchell Toney · PORTAL ★3 · MISSOURI STATEXzavier Booker · PORTAL ★3 · ALABAMA A&M2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLApisa Poumele · PORTAL ★3 · CENTRAL MICHIGANMason Barton · PORTAL ★3 · JACKSON STATEPARTIAL
WR/TETristian Gardner · PORTAL ★3 · MISSOURI STATETamarion LaFortune · PORTAL ★3 · WESTERN CONNECTICUT STATEClayton Coppock · PORTAL ★3 · KENNESAW STATE1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DBJalen Lee · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH DAKOTA STATEDamill Bostic Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · VILLANOVAMason Moore · PORTAL ★3 · LEHIGH3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBMarcellius Pulliam · PORTAL ★3 · MICHIGAN STATEAzarel Juste · PORTAL ★3 · BRYANTJordan Thompson · PORTAL ★3 · WESTERN CAROLINA2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBDaelen Alexander · PORTAL ★3 · RICEREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · COASTAL CAROLINA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
25.314 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
18.716 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
28.518 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB484852051 OF 5 GRADED
RB3333578374 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE555545492010 OF 20 GRADED
OL53532560165 OF 16 GRADED
DL444434181611 OF 16 GRADED
LB4949457104 OF 10 GRADED
DB535357312311 OF 23 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE24th24
BLUE-CHIP RATIO12%53
RECRUITING CLASS#118 · 0/13 BC12
CLASS RANK TREND-43 · 3 CYCLES0
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 33 IN / 43 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
GASTDELL MCGEE3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8282
PACE
7575
PASS RATE
9191
EXPLOSIVENESS
6464
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8080
HAVOC
66
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
CCURYAN BEARDFIRST SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8888
PACE
2626
PASS RATE
8989
EXPLOSIVENESS
100100
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
77
HAVOC
2929
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESCCU OFFENSEGAST OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBCOASTAL CAROLINA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
88OF 138
TAL
52
PERF
48
RET
0
NATIONAL
117OF 136
RET
29
FULL DEFENSEGEORGIA STATE DEFENSE
CCU QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DEUCE BAILEYQBTRUE FR
461ST YR4552★3+19
TREVER JACKSONQBPORTAL · ARKANSAS
382ND YR—64★3—
TRE GUERRAQBTRUE FR
303RD YR——UNR—
OSIRIS LOPEZQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—63★3—
LUKE MCBRIDEQBTRUE FR
301ST YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
GAST DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 55 PLAYERS57% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
3536%6%
LINEBACKERSLB
3144%7%
SECONDARYDB
5545%5%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLCOASTAL CAROLINA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
64OF 138
TAL
25
PERF
53
RET
60
DL
118OF 138
DL RET
36
LB
126OF 138
LB RET
44
FRONT-7GEORGIA STATE DEFENSE
CCU OFFENSIVE LINEn=1640% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TRAY FRANKLINOLRET
624TH YR—9★3-35 2025
GAVIN MCLAUGHLINOLRET
522ND YR——UNR—
JOSHUA DANIELOLTRUE FR
493RD YR——UNR—
KAIN MCDONALDOLRET
492ND YR—30★3—
DAUGHTRY RICHARDSONOLPORTAL · FLORIDA ATLANTIC
464TH YR—17★3-35 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
GAST FRONT-7n=33 · 2 ROOMS61% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ELI RICHARDSDTTRUE FR
521ST YR—34★3—
SAMUEL CHUKWURAHDTTRUE FR
523RD YR——UNR—
AJ VAUGHNSDTTRUE FR
504TH YR——UNR—
MANDJOU BERTEDTPORTAL · WINGATE
504TH YR—17★3—
ALEX MULLINGSDTRET
492ND YR—45★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBCOASTAL CAROLINA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
128OF 138
TAL
57
PERF
33
RET
83
DL
118OF 138
DL RET
36
LB
126OF 138
LB RET
44
FRONT-7GEORGIA STATE DEFENSE
CCU RUNNING BACKSn=717% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DAELEN ALEXANDERRBPORTAL · RICE
543RD YR—45★3+23 2025
JADEN ALLEN-HENDRIXRBPORTAL · OKLAHOMA STATE
522ND YR117★3—
DOMINIC KNICELYRBRET
482ND YR5567★3+13
BREYAHN TOWNSENDRBRET
483RD YR31—UNR-58
JEVON EDWARDSRBRET
452ND YR5767★3-6
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
GAST FRONT-72 ROOMS · 33 PLAYERS60% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.553536%6%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.453144%7%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TECOASTAL CAROLINA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
45OF 138
TAL
45
PERF
55
RET
49
DB
53OF 138
DB RET
45
SECONDARYGEORGIA STATE DEFENSE
CCU PASS CATCHERSn=2051% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TRISTIAN GARDNERWRPORTAL · MISSOURI STATE
652ND YR6564★3+33
CYRUS ELLISONTEPORTAL · SOUTH CAROLINA STATE
504TH YR—17★3—
GOLDIE LAWRENCEWRPORTAL · FLORIDA A&M
493RD YR—28★3—
COLTON HINTONWRRET
494TH YR3245★3—
CLAYTON COPPOCK JR.WRTRUE FR
482ND YR6845★3-7
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
GAST SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM55% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TOBY BOLTONCBPORTAL · TENNESSEE TECH
524TH YR—45★3—
DARIUS JOHNSONCBTRUE FR
501ST YR—45★3—
KEENAN NELSONSTRUE FR
494TH YR5164★3—
DEUCE WALKERSRET
483RD YR7457★3+0
DONOVAN FARIASPORTAL · GANNON
482ND YR—45★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
CCU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
GAST
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
41.7
54.5
— OFFENSE
46.3
59.6
— DEFENSE
37.1
49.4
SP+ OVERALL
-9.5
-21.6
FPI
-9.7
-9.1
ELO
1270
1287
TALENT
574
574
PRODUCTION
15
1
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+13
+30
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.12
0.11
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
CCU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
GAST
OFF EFFICIENCY
8
29
DEF EFFICIENCY
22
8
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
60
56
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
41
46
FINISHING DRIVES
43
14
FIELD POSITION
34
97
TURNOVER MARGIN
36
13
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
CCU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
GAST
PASS RATE
53.8%
40.3%
PACE
27.7s
25.9s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
57.5%
63.0%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
76.7%
51.6%
PLAYS / GAME
65.0
69.5
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
3.9%
5.8%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = CCU, ORANGE = GAST) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE