SCOUTTEAM
● LIVE|2026 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 10›GAST @ APP›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
BUF @ M-OH0
OHIO @ AKR0
TOL @ SAC0
CMU @ EMU0
BALL @ MASS0
JMU @ USM0
UTSA @ FAU0
VT @ SMU0
USF @ ECU0
NEB @ ILL0
UNM @ NEV0
TCU @ ARIZ0
WVU @ TTU0
OU @ FLA0
HAW @ UTEP0
UCF @ KU0
IOWA @ NU0
ODU @ CCU0
USA @ UL0
UCLA @ MINN0
UK @ TENN0
DUKE @ NCSU0
CLEM @ SYR0
MSU @ MICH0
TEX @ MIZ0
MRSH @ GASO0
LOU @ GT0
OKST @ KSU0
ALA @ LSU0
CLT @ UAB0
LT @ TROY0
PSU @ WASH0
UGA @ MISS0
NIU @ SJSU0
ORE @ OSU0
ISU @ BAY0
TLSA @ TULN0
COLO @ ASU0
VAN @ MSST0
RICE @ UNT0
MD @ PUR0
TA&M @ SC0
GAST @ APP0
CIN @ HOU0
BYU @ UTAH0
FSU @ BC0
ARK @ AUB0
RUTG @ WIS0
UNC @ CONN0
DEL @ KENN0
ULM @ ARST0
WKU @ MTSU0
TEM @ NAVY0
MOST @ FIU0
LIB @ NMSU0
BOIS @ CSU0
SHSU @ JXST0
AF @ ARMY0
MIA @ ND0
FRES @ USU0
WYO @ UNLV0
TXST @ ORST0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
GEORGIA STATE
APP STATE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|KIDD BREWER STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP15|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
107FPI
GASTSBCGEORGIA STATE
2-1
23
41
22
47%
93
30
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
87FPI
APPSBCAPP STATE
3-0
39
21
15
38%
88
5
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
GAST74CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
51
PROE
79
TEMPO
93
EXPLOSIVE51p
51
PROE79p
79
TEMPO93p
93
APP83CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
73
PROE
90
TEMPO
88
EXPLOSIVE73p
73
PROE90p
90
TEMPO88p
88
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
GASTRECORD UNDERSTATES
1-11ACTUALvs2.1-9.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-18.1
GEORGIA STATE won 1 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
APPRECORD MATCHES
5-7ACTUALvs4.9-7.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME-4.5
APP STATE won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERGEORGIA STATEAPP STATE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB87%Jordon SimmonsRB · 41% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRashad AmosRB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBranson RobinsonRB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL75%Fuches Lewis IIDT · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBishop ThomasPORTAL · OKLAHOMA · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONHenry BryantDT · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB74%Josiah RobinsonLB · 30% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKedrick WalkerPORTAL · BAYLOR · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarlin DeanPORTAL · UAB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB74%Jaylen JonesPORTAL · VIRGINIA · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIOND-Icey HopkinsPORTAL · LIBERTY · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDeuce FillmorePORTAL · ILLINOIS · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE65%Ted HurstDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJavon RobinsonPORTAL · UTAH STATE · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLane WadleTE · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB60%TJ FinleyQB · 43% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChristian VeilleuxQB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL52%Jeremiah McCrimmonOT · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDerrell Bailey Jr.OL · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAlec JohnsonOL · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBKeith Adams Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · CLEMSONLanear McCrary Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · SHORTERQwantavius Wiggins · SIGNEE ★4REFILLED
DLXavier Esquillen · PORTAL ★3 · SAVANNAH STFreddie Wilson · SIGNEE ★3Timothy Dailey · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
LBJaydon Hood · PORTAL ★3 · MICHIGANPARTIAL
DBDarius Johnson Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · GARDNER-WEBBDonovan Faria · PORTAL ★3 · GANNONDeuce Lee · PORTAL ★3 · MONMOUTH3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEChase Allen-Jackman · PORTAL ★3 · WASHBURNRodshaun Dorsey · PORTAL ★3 · ERSKINEZach Stair · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
QBAyden Pereira · PORTAL ★3 · MERRIMACKREFILLED
OLKelton Smith Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIAMarcus Mascoll · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDAConnor Jones · PORTAL ★3 · MICHIGAN3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · GEORGIA STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
33.031 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
46.166 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
25.715 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB6363235954 OF 5 GRADED
RB51513522106 OF 10 GRADED
WR/TE545438532017 OF 20 GRADED
OL535340421916 OF 19 GRADED
DL353543361815 OF 18 GRADED
LB313131441511 OF 15 GRADED
DB555546452213 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE23rd23
BLUE-CHIP RATIO11%51
RECRUITING CLASS#84 · 1/16 BC38
CLASS RANK TREND+36 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 33 IN / 39 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
APPDOWELL LOGGAINS2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9393
PACE
8787
PASS RATE
9595
EXPLOSIVENESS
1818
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7575
HAVOC
6262
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
GASTDELL MCGEE3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8282
PACE
7575
PASS RATE
9191
EXPLOSIVENESS
6464
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8080
HAVOC
66
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESGAST OFFENSEAPP OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBGEORGIA STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
35OF 138
TAL
23
PERF
63
RET
59
NATIONAL
113OF 136
RET
5
FULL DEFENSEAPP STATE DEFENSE
GAST QUARTERBACKSn=541% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CAMERAN BROWNQBRET
544TH YR6017★3+21
AYDEN PEREIRAQBPORTAL · MERRIMACK
504TH YR—28★3—
GAVIN NUCKOLLSQBTRUE FR
401ST YR—31★3—
TJ STANLEYQBRET
401ST YR—39★3—
JADON OLAFSSONQBRET
301ST YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
APP DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 47 PLAYERS70% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
5051%6%
LINEBACKERSLB
5236%0%
SECONDARYDB
4719%5%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLGEORGIA STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
60OF 138
TAL
40
PERF
53
RET
42
DL
69OF 138
DL RET
51
LB
59OF 138
LB RET
36
FRONT-7APP STATE DEFENSE
GAST OFFENSIVE LINEn=1958% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MARCUS MASCOLLOLPORTAL · FLORIDA
522ND YR—45★3—
DONOVAN FUNSCHOTRET
483RD YR——UNR+14 2025
GAGE STANALANDOLPORTAL · OKLAHOMA STATE
523RD YR—54★3—
MALIK JACKSONOLRET
512ND YR——UNR—
DEYLIN HASERTOLPORTAL · IOWA STATE
514TH YR—60★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
APP FRONT-7n=27 · 2 ROOMS55% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
COLTON PHARESLBRET
714TH YR8421★3+20
AIDEN BENTONDLRET
624TH YR72—UNR+33
KESHAWN THOMASLBPORTAL · OLD DOMINION
514TH YR—45★3—
CALEB SANDSTROMDLRET
494TH YR639★3+6
ALEX MITCHELLLBPORTAL · MIDDLE TENNESSEE
484TH YR4945★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBGEORGIA STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
74OF 138
TAL
35
PERF
51
RET
22
DL
69OF 138
DL RET
51
LB
59OF 138
LB RET
36
FRONT-7APP STATE DEFENSE
GAST RUNNING BACKSn=1078% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LANEAR MCCRARY JR.RBPORTAL · SHORTER
524TH YR—28★3—
SAVION HARTRBPORTAL · GEORGETOWN
522ND YR—9★3—
JAMAL BING JR.RBRET
513RD YR——UNR—
DENNIS MURRAY JR.RBRET
492ND YR3124★3-9
QWANTAVIUS WIGGINSRBTRUE FR
491ST YR—84★4—
SHOW ALL 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
APP FRONT-72 ROOMS · 27 PLAYERS56% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555051%6%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.455236%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEGEORGIA STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
50OF 138
TAL
38
PERF
54
RET
53
DB
100OF 138
DB RET
19
SECONDARYAPP STATE DEFENSE
GAST PASS CATCHERSn=2047% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
GRANT HOLLIERTERET
662ND YR6360★3+41
AVION MCBRIDETERET
554TH YR—16★3-18 2025
RODSHAUN DORSEYWRPORTAL · ERSKINE
523RD YR—28★3—
ISAIAH STONEWRPORTAL · LSU
512ND YR—9★3—
AUSTIN MCGEEWRRET
502ND YR1340★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
APP SECONDARYn=20 · 1 ROOM81% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KHALIL CONLEYDBPORTAL · NORTH CAROLINA
523RD YR3568★3—
DEVIN HENDERSONDBPORTAL · LIBERTY
503RD YR5745★3+63
JA'DEN MCBURROWSDBRET
504TH YR—45★3+2 2025
JA'CARI HENDERSONDBPORTAL · UCF
484TH YR—45★3-32 2025
KALEB PURDYDBPORTAL · TENNESSEE TECH
474TH YR3645★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
GAST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
APP
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
54.5
55.2
— OFFENSE
59.6
59.5
— DEFENSE
49.4
50.9
SP+ OVERALL
-21.6
-7.4
FPI
-8.8
-5.0
ELO
1274
1324
TALENT
574
622
PRODUCTION
1
19
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+30
+4
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.11
0.10
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
GAST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
APP
OFF EFFICIENCY
29
36
DEF EFFICIENCY
8
15
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
56
24
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
46
73
FINISHING DRIVES
14
42
FIELD POSITION
97
76
TURNOVER MARGIN
13
55
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
GAST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
APP
PASS RATE
47.8%
48.4%
PACE
24.3s
24.9s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
56.9%
57.0%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
61.8%
60.3%
PLAYS / GAME
74.0
72.3
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
3.6%
1.8%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = GAST, ORANGE = APP) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE