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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 10›ULM @ ARST›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
BUF @ M-OH0
OHIO @ AKR0
TOL @ SAC0
CMU @ EMU0
BALL @ MASS0
JMU @ USM0
UTSA @ FAU0
VT @ SMU0
USF @ ECU0
NEB @ ILL0
UNM @ NEV0
TCU @ ARIZ0
WVU @ TTU0
OU @ FLA0
HAW @ UTEP0
UCF @ KU0
IOWA @ NU0
ODU @ CCU0
USA @ UL0
UCLA @ MINN0
UK @ TENN0
DUKE @ NCSU0
CLEM @ SYR0
MSU @ MICH0
TEX @ MIZ0
MRSH @ GASO0
LOU @ GT0
OKST @ KSU0
ALA @ LSU0
CLT @ UAB0
LT @ TROY0
PSU @ WASH0
UGA @ MISS0
NIU @ SJSU0
ORE @ OSU0
ISU @ BAY0
TLSA @ TULN0
COLO @ ASU0
VAN @ MSST0
RICE @ UNT0
MD @ PUR0
TA&M @ SC0
GAST @ APP0
CIN @ HOU0
BYU @ UTAH0
FSU @ BC0
ARK @ AUB0
RUTG @ WIS0
UNC @ CONN0
DEL @ KENN0
ULM @ ARST0
WKU @ MTSU0
TEM @ NAVY0
MOST @ FIU0
LIB @ NMSU0
BOIS @ CSU0
SHSU @ JXST0
AF @ ARMY0
MIA @ ND0
FRES @ USU0
WYO @ UNLV0
TXST @ ORST0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
UL MONROE
ARKANSAS STATE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 15:00 ET|CENTENNIAL BANK STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP30|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
135FPI
ULMSBCUL MONROE
0-3
4
16
42
39%
72
26
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
111FPI
ARSTSBCARKANSAS STATE
1-2
34
13
33
30%
7
31
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
ULM28CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
3
PROE
8
TEMPO
72
EXPLOSIVE3p
3
PROE8p
8
TEMPO72p
72
ARST40CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
27
PROE
86
TEMPO
7
EXPLOSIVE27p
27
PROE86p
86
TEMPO7p
7
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
ULMRECORD MATCHES
3-9ACTUALvs2.1-9.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-15.3
UL MONROE won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ARSTRECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs5.2-6.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME-2.9
ARKANSAS STATE won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERUL MONROEARKANSAS STATE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB100%Bam McReynoldsPORTAL · UAB · 37% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZach Palmer-SmithRB · 34% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDorian LewisRB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL70%Cliff MosleyDL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaden HamlinDL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDylan HowellDL · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB70%David Godsey Jr.DB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIOND'Arco Perkins-McAllisterDB · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKamrin CanterburyPORTAL · PRAIRIE VIEW A&M · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE63%Julian NixonTE · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRylan GreenTE · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNate Sullivan Jr.TE · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL55%Que McBroomOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONElijah FisherOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJay MickleOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
LB23%Seidrion LangstonLB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTyrese HopkinsLB · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBDonald Chaney Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · CHARLOTTEDon Chaney Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · CHARLOTTEBryson Roland · PORTAL ★3 · ARKANSAS TECH2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLLe'Kell McGowan · PORTAL ★3 · MEMPHISCJ Wilson Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · BUTLERPARTIAL
DBTaijh Overton · PORTAL ★3 · ARKANSASLarell Howling · PORTAL ★3 · COASTAL CAROLINAChris Payne · PORTAL ★3 · LAKE ERIE2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEBryce Anderson · PORTAL ★3 · MEMPHISDamarcco Blanton · PORTAL ★3 · ARKANSAS STATEJase Hoath · PORTAL ★3 · TENNESSEE STATE5 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLBright Fagbamiye · PORTAL ★3 · TIFFIN UNIVERSITYSean Dugery · PORTAL ★3 · MEMPHISJeremyah Green · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
LBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
QBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · UL MONROE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
40.651 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
37.249 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
42.358 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB2626646653 OF 5 GRADED
RB606037094 OF 9 GRADED
WR/TE505034382113 OF 21 GRADED
OL474727801810 OF 18 GRADED
DL383823401510 OF 15 GRADED
LB49492576148 OF 14 GRADED
DB414128442014 OF 20 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE4th4
BLUE-CHIP RATIO11%50
RECRUITING CLASS#127 · 0/5 BC5
CLASS RANK TREND-13 · 3 CYCLES24
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 20 IN / 17 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
ARSTBUTCH JONES6TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7272
PACE
7272
PASS RATE
7474
EXPLOSIVENESS
4949
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3131
HAVOC
5353
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
ULMBRYANT VINCENT3TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
44
PACE
55
PASS RATE
55
EXPLOSIVENESS
9696
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6767
HAVOC
1616
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESULM OFFENSEARST OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBUL MONROE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
136OF 138
TAL
64
PERF
26
RET
66
NATIONAL
100OF 136
RET
21
FULL DEFENSEARKANSAS STATE DEFENSE
ULM QUARTERBACKSn=534% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
AUSTIN CARLISLEQBPORTAL · HOUSTON
522ND YR1864★3—
LANDON GRAVESQBRET
494TH YR36—UNR-49
AIDAN ARMENTAQBRET
414TH YR79—UNR-27
BRYSON KIMBROUGHQBRET
352ND YR—43★3—
TY PURDYQBTRUE FR
304TH YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARST DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 52 PLAYERS64% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
637%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
337%0%
SECONDARYDB
4460%5%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLUL MONROE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
85OF 138
TAL
27
PERF
47
RET
80
DL
27OF 138
DL RET
7
LB
121OF 138
LB RET
7
FRONT-7ARKANSAS STATE DEFENSE
ULM OFFENSIVE LINEn=1820% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KALIEM CROSWELLOLRET
534TH YR——UNR+17 2025
DREW HUTCHINSONOLRET
524TH YR——UNR—
JOHN CURTIS GOODMAN JR.OLRET
524TH YR——UNR—
ADAMEON BOTLEYOLRET
494TH YR——UNR—
REESE STEELEOLRET
494TH YR—2★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARST FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS93% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
SHAKAI WOODSDTPORTAL · MIDDLE TENNESSEE
544TH YR—28★3-37 2025
RYAN REESEDTRET
502ND YR4762★3—
TONY CARTERDERET
462ND YR4454★3—
KAM MOORELBPORTAL · UCF
414TH YR—9★3—
ROBERT STEVENSLBTRUE FR
384TH YR20—UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBUL MONROE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
33OF 138
TAL
37
PERF
60
RET
0
DL
27OF 138
DL RET
7
LB
121OF 138
LB RET
7
FRONT-7ARKANSAS STATE DEFENSE
ULM RUNNING BACKSn=9100% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DERRICK JAMESONRBPORTAL · UTAH STATE
504TH YR3628★3+30
BRYSON ROLANDRBPORTAL · ARKANSAS TECH
462ND YR2645★3-56
CJ PHILLIPRBTRUE FR
373RD YR1—UNR—
TREVON KINCHENRBTRUE FR
374TH YR5—UNR—
DON CHANEYRBTRUE FR
474TH YR—96★4-26 2024
SHOW ALL 9
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARST FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS93% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.55637%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.45337%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEUL MONROE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
73OF 138
TAL
34
PERF
50
RET
38
DB
109OF 138
DB RET
60
SECONDARYARKANSAS STATE DEFENSE
ULM PASS CATCHERSn=2162% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BRANDON BUCKHAULTERWRRET
504TH YR4317★3+31
MARCELLUS JACKSONWRTRUE FR
504TH YR——UNR—
LT ROBINSONWRTRUE FR
493RD YR——UNR—
PARKER FULGHUMWRPORTAL · CLEMSON
483RD YR159★3—
BRYCE ANDERSONTEPORTAL · MEMPHIS
474TH YR5264★3-33
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARST SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM40% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
FIVE HAMILTONSPORTAL · KENNESAW STATE
584TH YR7328★3+25
KYLE WILLIAMSCBRET
533RD YR4430★3—
MALEKHI WEEDONSRET
522ND YR—43★3—
BRANDON GREILSRET
504TH YR7831★3-29
NOAH FLORESCBTRUE FR
494TH YR70—UNR-28
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
ULM
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ARST
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
36.4
45.0
— OFFENSE
44.5
51.1
— DEFENSE
28.3
39.0
SP+ OVERALL
-29.3
-7.1
FPI
-22.6
-10.2
ELO
1076
1319
TALENT
505
606
PRODUCTION
1
23
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+11
+9
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.11
0.04
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
ULM
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ARST
OFF EFFICIENCY
11
45
DEF EFFICIENCY
58
29
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
92
11
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
12
29
FINISHING DRIVES
10
9
FIELD POSITION
92
27
TURNOVER MARGIN
4
24
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
ULM
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ARST
PASS RATE
47.1%
44.2%
PACE
26.2s
32.7s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
62.4%
63.7%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
71.9%
68.3%
PLAYS / GAME
68.7
55.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
1.5%
2.4%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = ULM, ORANGE = ARST) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE