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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 11›GASO @ GAST›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
OHIO @ M-OH0
KENT @ BGSU0
WMU @ AKR0
BUF @ BALL0
SAC @ CMU0
MASS @ TOL0
MEM @ USF0
UL @ ULM0
FSU @ PITT0
ILL @ UCLA0
HOU @ COLO0
MICH @ ORE0
TULN @ RICE0
MINN @ PSU0
SC @ ARK0
CIN @ ISU0
AUB @ MSST0
WIS @ MD0
KU @ WVU0
USC @ IU0
UTAH @ ARIZ0
UAB @ TEM0
ASU @ UCF0
CAL @ UVA0
APP @ MRSH0
ECU @ CLT0
USM @ LT0
GASO @ GAST0
WASH @ MSU0
DUKE @ MIA0
MIZ @ UGA0
NEB @ RUTG0
KSU @ TCU0
UNT @ UTSA0
FAU @ TLSA0
GT @ CLEM0
TTU @ OKST0
WYO @ UTEP0
NU @ OSU0
MISS @ OU0
STAN @ VT0
ARST @ CCU0
FLA @ UK0
TENN @ TA&M0
TROY @ USA0
PUR @ IOWA0
ALA @ VAN0
WAKE @ SMU0
NEV @ NIU0
TEX @ LSU0
SYR @ NCSU0
LOU @ UNC0
BAY @ BYU0
JMU @ CONN0
KENN @ SHSU0
FIU @ DEL0
NMSU @ MOST0
JXST @ WKU0
MTSU @ LIB0
BC @ ND0
FRES @ TXST0
ORST @ BOIS0
SJSU @ AF0
UNLV @ UNM0
USU @ SDSU0
CSU @ WSU0
NDSU @ HAW0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
GEORGIA STATE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|CENTER PARC STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP20|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
100FPI
GASOSBCGEORGIA SOUTHERN
1-1
44
45
2
6%
84
36
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
107FPI
GASTSBCGEORGIA STATE
2-0
23
41
22
47%
73
28
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
GASO66CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
50
PROE
65
TEMPO
84
EXPLOSIVE50p
50
PROE65p
65
TEMPO84p
84
GAST60CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
27
PROE
79
TEMPO
73
EXPLOSIVE27p
27
PROE79p
79
TEMPO73p
73
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
GASORECORD OVERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs4.6-7.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-6.3
GEORGIA SOUTHERN won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
GASTRECORD UNDERSTATES
1-11ACTUALvs2.1-9.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-18.1
GEORGIA STATE won 1 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERGEORGIA SOUTHERNGEORGIA STATE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB92%JC French IVPORTAL · CINCINNATI · 92% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
OL90%Pichon WimbleyOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCaleb CookOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJohnnie Brown IIIOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE80%Ahmon GreenTE · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCamden BrownWR · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarcus Sanders Jr.WR · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB55%Dorrian SmithDB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAyden JacksonPORTAL · SOUTH FLORIDA · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJustin MeyersDB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL55%Davion RhodesPORTAL · NORTH TEXAS · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJacob FergusonDL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDevan LowePORTAL · MEMPHIS · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB51%OJ ArnoldRB · 51% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
LB26%Brendan HarringtonLB · 26% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBHarrison Faulkner Jr. · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLMo Clipper Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · CHARLOTTEJosh Raymond · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA STATEJayvon Perry · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
WR/TEAlex Taylor · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH CAROLINAKam Mikell · PORTAL ★3 · COLORADONoble Johnson · PORTAL ★3 · ARIZONA STATE4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBAaron Sears · PORTAL ★3 · STEPHEN F. AUSTINNoah Mangham · PORTAL ★3 · ABILENE CHRISTIANChace Calicut · SIGNEE ★44 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLAlec Upshaw · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBTy Cummings · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
LBRashon Myles Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · ABILENE CHRISTIANREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · GEORGIA SOUTHERN
CARRIED COMPOSITE
39.748 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
14.610 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
54.083 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB4646751862 OF 6 GRADED
RB6767618195 OF 9 GRADED
WR/TE505040624CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL383841019CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL23234150106 OF 10 GRADED
LB323234442516 OF 25 GRADED
DB494947622113 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE44th44
BLUE-CHIP RATIO12%53
RECRUITING CLASS#89 · 1/21 BC34
CLASS RANK TREND+2 · 3 CYCLES54
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 17 IN / 18 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 5th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
GASTDELL MCGEE3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8282
PACE
7575
PASS RATE
9191
EXPLOSIVENESS
6464
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8080
HAVOC
66
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
GASOCLAY HELTON5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9494
PACE
8787
PASS RATE
9393
EXPLOSIVENESS
3737
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1818
HAVOC
5555
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESGASO OFFENSEGAST OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBGEORGIA SOUTHERN OFFENSE
NATIONAL
94OF 138
TAL
75
PERF
46
RET
18
NATIONAL
117OF 136
RET
29
FULL DEFENSEGEORGIA STATE DEFENSE
GASO QUARTERBACKSn=682% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
WESTON BRYANQBRET
522ND YR1784★4—
MAX JOHNSONQBPORTAL · NORTH CAROLINA
504TH YR7490★3-20
TURNER HELTONQBRET
494TH YR—9★3+28 2025
CHARLIE JOHNSTONQBRET
352ND YR—62★3—
HARRISON FAULKNER JR.QBTRUE FR
351ST YR—48★3—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
GAST DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 55 PLAYERS57% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
3536%6%
LINEBACKERSLB
3144%7%
SECONDARYDB
5545%5%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLGEORGIA SOUTHERN OFFENSE
NATIONAL
114OF 138
TAL
41
PERF
38
RET
0
DL
118OF 138
DL RET
36
LB
126OF 138
LB RET
44
FRONT-7GEORGIA STATE DEFENSE
GASO OFFENSIVE LINEn=19100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
COLIN ALEXANDEROLRET
523RD YR—11★2—
JAYLEN SLAUGHTEROLRET
493RD YR——UNR—
CAELAN WILLIAMSOLRET
494TH YR—14★2—
ETHAN WILLIAMSOLRET
484TH YR—28★3—
MATTHEW WILLIAMSOLRET
474TH YR——UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
GAST FRONT-7n=33 · 2 ROOMS61% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ELI RICHARDSDTTRUE FR
521ST YR—34★3—
SAMUEL CHUKWURAHDTTRUE FR
523RD YR——UNR—
AJ VAUGHNSDTTRUE FR
504TH YR——UNR—
MANDJOU BERTEDTPORTAL · WINGATE
504TH YR—17★3—
ALEX MULLINGSDTRET
492ND YR—45★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBGEORGIA SOUTHERN OFFENSE
NATIONAL
14OF 138
TAL
61
PERF
67
RET
81
DL
118OF 138
DL RET
36
LB
126OF 138
LB RET
44
FRONT-7GEORGIA STATE DEFENSE
GASO RUNNING BACKSn=919% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JAMARIAN SAMUELRBRET
524TH YR2635★3+36
TERRANCE GIBBSRBRET
504TH YR4086★4-57
TAEO TODDRBRET
483RD YR4050★3-20
DAVID MBADINGARBRET
474TH YR74—UNR-37
TY CUMMINGSRBTRUE FR
471ST YR—73★3—
SHOW ALL 9
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
GAST FRONT-72 ROOMS · 33 PLAYERS60% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.553536%6%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.453144%7%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEGEORGIA SOUTHERN OFFENSE
NATIONAL
70OF 138
TAL
40
PERF
50
RET
6
DB
53OF 138
DB RET
45
SECONDARYGEORGIA STATE DEFENSE
GASO PASS CATCHERSn=2494% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JOSH DALLASWRRET
664TH YR7836★3+27
RIVER HELMSTERET
644TH YR8045★3+35
JP MIKHAELTERET
484TH YR3625★3—
ANTAVIOUS MURPHYWRRET
483RD YR—41★3—
ASHTON HOLLINSWRPORTAL · ILLINOIS
454TH YR509★3+30
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
GAST SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM55% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TOBY BOLTONCBPORTAL · TENNESSEE TECH
524TH YR—45★3—
DARIUS JOHNSONCBTRUE FR
501ST YR—45★3—
KEENAN NELSONSTRUE FR
494TH YR5164★3—
DEUCE WALKERSRET
483RD YR7457★3+0
DONOVAN FARIASPORTAL · GANNON
482ND YR—45★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
GASO
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
GAST
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
65.1
54.5
— OFFENSE
69.8
59.6
— DEFENSE
60.4
49.4
SP+ OVERALL
-6.6
-21.6
FPI
-7.8
-9.1
ELO
1359
1287
TALENT
634
574
PRODUCTION
25
1
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−13
+30
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.12
0.11
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
GASO
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
GAST
OFF EFFICIENCY
67
29
DEF EFFICIENCY
3
8
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
48
56
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
52
46
FINISHING DRIVES
74
14
FIELD POSITION
74
97
TURNOVER MARGIN
54
13
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
GASO
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
GAST
PASS RATE
68.1%
40.3%
PACE
25.0s
25.9s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
38.0%
63.0%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
78.8%
51.6%
PLAYS / GAME
72.0
69.5
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
4.2%
5.8%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = GASO, ORANGE = GAST) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE