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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 12›GAST @ MRSH›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
BALL @ OHIO0
M-OH @ KENT0
EMU @ WMU0
CMU @ BUF0
AKR @ MASS0
RICE @ TEM0
ISU @ UCF0
BGSU @ TOL0
CLEM @ DUKE0
UTEP @ AF0
ORE @ MSU0
CLT @ TLSA0
UTAH @ TCU0
GASO @ TROY0
OKST @ ASU0
VT @ MIA0
SYR @ BC0
ARIZ @ KSU0
GAST @ MRSH0
UNC @ UVA0
HAW @ NEV0
ULM @ APP0
BYU @ KU0
WIS @ PUR0
PITT @ LOU0
WAKE @ GT0
COLO @ CIN0
TA&M @ OU0
VAN @ FLA0
UTSA @ UAB0
RUTG @ PSU0
STAN @ CAL0
UCLA @ MICH0
IOWA @ ILL0
MD @ USC0
OSU @ NEB0
USA @ USM0
UNT @ TULN0
NCSU @ FSU0
USF @ FAU0
IU @ WASH0
ARST @ LT0
TTU @ BAY0
HOU @ WVU0
ARK @ TEX0
UGA @ SC0
CCU @ UL0
UK @ MIZ0
NU @ MINN0
LSU @ TENN0
MEM @ NAVY0
ECU @ ARMY0
WKU @ LIB0
MTSU @ SHSU0
MOST @ JXST0
DEL @ NMSU0
FIU @ KENN0
ODU @ CONN0
NIU @ NDSU0
WSU @ TXST0
UNLV @ SJSU0
CSU @ FRES0
SMU @ ND0
UNM @ WYO0
SDSU @ BOIS0
USU @ ORST0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
GEORGIA STATE
MARSHALL
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|JOAN C. EDWARDS STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP7|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
107FPI
GASTSBCGEORGIA STATE
2-1
23
41
22
47%
93
—
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
117FPI
MRSHSBCMARSHALL
2-1
30
19
25
99%
18
—
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
GAST74CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
51
PROE
79
TEMPO
93
EXPLOSIVE51p
51
PROE79p
79
TEMPO93p
93
MRSH14CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
7
PROE
18
TEMPO
18
EXPLOSIVE7p
7
PROE18p
18
TEMPO18p
18
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
GASTRECORD UNDERSTATES
1-11ACTUALvs2.1-9.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-18.1
GEORGIA STATE won 1 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
MRSHRECORD UNDERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs6.1-5.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME+0.5
MARSHALL won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERGEORGIA STATEMARSHALL2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB87%Jordon SimmonsRB · 41% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRashad AmosRB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBranson RobinsonRB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL75%Fuches Lewis IIDT · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBishop ThomasPORTAL · OKLAHOMA · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONHenry BryantDT · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB74%Josiah RobinsonLB · 30% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKedrick WalkerPORTAL · BAYLOR · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarlin DeanPORTAL · UAB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB74%Jaylen JonesPORTAL · VIRGINIA · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIOND-Icey HopkinsPORTAL · LIBERTY · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDeuce FillmorePORTAL · ILLINOIS · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE65%Ted HurstDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJavon RobinsonPORTAL · UTAH STATE · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLane WadleTE · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB60%TJ FinleyQB · 43% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChristian VeilleuxQB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL52%Jeremiah McCrimmonOT · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDerrell Bailey Jr.OL · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAlec JohnsonOL · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBKeith Adams Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · CLEMSONLanear McCrary Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · SHORTERQwantavius Wiggins · SIGNEE ★4REFILLED
DLXavier Esquillen · PORTAL ★3 · SAVANNAH STFreddie Wilson · SIGNEE ★3Timothy Dailey · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
LBJaydon Hood · PORTAL ★3 · MICHIGANPARTIAL
DBDarius Johnson Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · GARDNER-WEBBDonovan Faria · PORTAL ★3 · GANNONDeuce Lee · PORTAL ★3 · MONMOUTH3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEChase Allen-Jackman · PORTAL ★3 · WASHBURNRodshaun Dorsey · PORTAL ★3 · ERSKINEZach Stair · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
QBAyden Pereira · PORTAL ★3 · MERRIMACKREFILLED
OLKelton Smith Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIAMarcus Mascoll · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDAConnor Jones · PORTAL ★3 · MICHIGAN3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · GEORGIA STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
33.031 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
46.166 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
25.715 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB6363235954 OF 5 GRADED
RB51513522106 OF 10 GRADED
WR/TE545438532017 OF 20 GRADED
OL535340421916 OF 19 GRADED
DL353543361815 OF 18 GRADED
LB313131441511 OF 15 GRADED
DB555546452213 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE23rd23
BLUE-CHIP RATIO11%51
RECRUITING CLASS#84 · 1/16 BC38
CLASS RANK TREND+36 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 33 IN / 39 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
MRSHTONY GIBSON2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1313
PACE
8686
PASS RATE
77
EXPLOSIVENESS
55
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
33
HAVOC
4747
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
GASTDELL MCGEE3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8282
PACE
7575
PASS RATE
9191
EXPLOSIVENESS
6464
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8080
HAVOC
66
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESGAST OFFENSEMRSH OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBGEORGIA STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
35OF 138
TAL
23
PERF
63
RET
59
NATIONAL
86OF 136
RET
16
FULL DEFENSEMARSHALL DEFENSE
GAST QUARTERBACKSn=541% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CAMERAN BROWNQBRET
544TH YR6017★3+21
AYDEN PEREIRAQBPORTAL · MERRIMACK
504TH YR—28★3—
GAVIN NUCKOLLSQBTRUE FR
401ST YR—31★3—
TJ STANLEYQBRET
401ST YR—39★3—
JADON OLAFSSONQBRET
301ST YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MRSH DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 49 PLAYERS59% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
5022%6%
LINEBACKERSLB
5082%0%
SECONDARYDB
4436%0%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLGEORGIA STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
60OF 138
TAL
40
PERF
53
RET
42
DL
67OF 138
DL RET
22
LB
65OF 138
LB RET
82
FRONT-7MARSHALL DEFENSE
GAST OFFENSIVE LINEn=1958% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MARCUS MASCOLLOLPORTAL · FLORIDA
522ND YR—45★3—
DONOVAN FUNSCHOTRET
483RD YR——UNR+14 2025
GAGE STANALANDOLPORTAL · OKLAHOMA STATE
523RD YR—54★3—
MALIK JACKSONOLRET
512ND YR——UNR—
DEYLIN HASERTOLPORTAL · IOWA STATE
514TH YR—60★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MRSH FRONT-7n=27 · 2 ROOMS54% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BRAYDIN WARDDLRET
563RD YR——UNR-10 2025
NATE BLANCDTTRUE FR
521ST YR——UNR—
MEKHI LOCKHARTDLRET
511ST YR628★3—
JAVAE GILMORELBRET
514TH YR7645★3+15
KENYATTA HARDGEDLTRUE FR
512ND YR30—UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBGEORGIA STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
74OF 138
TAL
35
PERF
51
RET
22
DL
67OF 138
DL RET
22
LB
65OF 138
LB RET
82
FRONT-7MARSHALL DEFENSE
GAST RUNNING BACKSn=1078% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LANEAR MCCRARY JR.RBPORTAL · SHORTER
524TH YR—28★3—
SAVION HARTRBPORTAL · GEORGETOWN
522ND YR—9★3—
JAMAL BING JR.RBRET
513RD YR——UNR—
DENNIS MURRAY JR.RBRET
492ND YR3124★3-9
QWANTAVIUS WIGGINSRBTRUE FR
491ST YR—84★4—
SHOW ALL 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MRSH FRONT-72 ROOMS · 27 PLAYERS51% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555022%6%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.455082%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEGEORGIA STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
50OF 138
TAL
38
PERF
54
RET
53
DB
112OF 138
DB RET
36
SECONDARYMARSHALL DEFENSE
GAST PASS CATCHERSn=2047% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
GRANT HOLLIERTERET
662ND YR6360★3+41
AVION MCBRIDETERET
554TH YR—16★3-18 2025
RODSHAUN DORSEYWRPORTAL · ERSKINE
523RD YR—28★3—
ISAIAH STONEWRPORTAL · LSU
512ND YR—9★3—
AUSTIN MCGEEWRRET
502ND YR1340★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MRSH SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM64% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PHILIPP DAVISDBRET
523RD YR3261★3—
BRAYDEN HALLCBPORTAL · CENTRAL CONNECTICUT
504TH YR1645★3—
DAYTIONE SMITHSRET
494TH YR9432★3+41
CALEB CLARK-GLOVERDBRET
463RD YR6433★3-17
TRISTAN LESTERSTRUE FR
451ST YR2—★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
GAST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MRSH
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
54.5
39.5
— OFFENSE
59.6
45.4
— DEFENSE
49.4
33.5
SP+ OVERALL
-21.6
-11.7
FPI
-8.8
-11.9
ELO
1274
1391
TALENT
574
595
PRODUCTION
1
29
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+30
−1
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.11
0.06
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
GAST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MRSH
OFF EFFICIENCY
29
64
DEF EFFICIENCY
8
74
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
56
5
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
46
5
FINISHING DRIVES
14
77
FIELD POSITION
97
8
TURNOVER MARGIN
13
81
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
GAST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MRSH
PASS RATE
47.8%
43.8%
PACE
24.3s
30.3s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
56.9%
61.6%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
61.8%
56.6%
PLAYS / GAME
74.0
59.3
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
3.6%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = GAST, ORANGE = MRSH) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE