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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 12›ARST @ LT›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
BALL @ OHIO0
M-OH @ KENT0
EMU @ WMU0
CMU @ BUF0
AKR @ MASS0
RICE @ TEM0
ISU @ UCF0
BGSU @ TOL0
CLEM @ DUKE0
UTEP @ AF0
ORE @ MSU0
CLT @ TLSA0
UTAH @ TCU0
GASO @ TROY0
OKST @ ASU0
VT @ MIA0
SYR @ BC0
ARIZ @ KSU0
GAST @ MRSH0
UNC @ UVA0
HAW @ NEV0
ULM @ APP0
BYU @ KU0
WIS @ PUR0
PITT @ LOU0
WAKE @ GT0
COLO @ CIN0
TA&M @ OU0
VAN @ FLA0
UTSA @ UAB0
RUTG @ PSU0
STAN @ CAL0
UCLA @ MICH0
IOWA @ ILL0
MD @ USC0
OSU @ NEB0
USA @ USM0
UNT @ TULN0
NCSU @ FSU0
USF @ FAU0
IU @ WASH0
ARST @ LT0
TTU @ BAY0
HOU @ WVU0
ARK @ TEX0
UGA @ SC0
CCU @ UL0
UK @ MIZ0
NU @ MINN0
LSU @ TENN0
MEM @ NAVY0
ECU @ ARMY0
WKU @ LIB0
MTSU @ SHSU0
MOST @ JXST0
DEL @ NMSU0
FIU @ KENN0
ODU @ CONN0
NIU @ NDSU0
WSU @ TXST0
UNLV @ SJSU0
CSU @ FRES0
SMU @ ND0
UNM @ WYO0
SDSU @ BOIS0
USU @ ORST0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
ARKANSAS STATE
LOUISIANA TECH
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|JOE AILLET STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP24|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
111FPI
ARSTSBCARKANSAS STATE
1-2
34
13
33
30%
7
—
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
98FPI
LTSBCLOUISIANA TECH
1-2
10
12
19
64%
31
—
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
ARST40CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
27
PROE
86
TEMPO
7
EXPLOSIVE27p
27
PROE86p
86
TEMPO7p
7
LT46CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
94
PROE
13
TEMPO
31
EXPLOSIVE94p
94
PROE13p
13
TEMPO31p
31
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
ARSTRECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs5.2-6.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME-2.9
ARKANSAS STATE won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
LTRECORD MATCHES
7-5ACTUALvs7.8-4.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+6.3
LOUISIANA TECH won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERARKANSAS STATELOUISIANA TECH2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Jaylen RaynorPORTAL · IOWA STATE · 99% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL93%Ethan HasslerDL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSimeon MitchellDT · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCody SiglerPORTAL · AUBURN · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION9 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB76%Aaron AlexanderPORTAL · NORTH TEXAS · 32% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKyle TaylorLB · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJavante MackeyPORTAL · TEXAS STATE · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE45%Tyler FortenberryPORTAL · IOWA STATE · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCorey RuckerWR · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB38%Avante DickersonCB · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTrenton Alan YoweCB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL28%Riley McGeheePORTAL · MEMPHIS · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNoah SmithOL · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB6%Ja'Quez CrossPORTAL · APP STATE · 3% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBTrey Owens · PORTAL ★3 · TEXASJeremy St-Hilaire · PORTAL ★3 · VANDERBILTREFILLED
DLTyeland Coleman · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA STATESultan Badmus · PORTAL ★3 · TEMPLENicolas Kalume · PORTAL ★3 · MAINE3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBJoshua Ofor · PORTAL ★3 · NC STATETre Stevens · PORTAL ★3 · LAFAYETTEMckinley McShan · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
WR/TEBoski Barrett · PORTAL ★3 · VANDERBILTDeshaun Fedd · SIGNEE ★3Ty'lan Fortune · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBMakai Shahid · PORTAL ★3 · YOUNGSTOWN STATEPaul Risper · SIGNEE ★3KeAndre Gibson · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLManasse Itete · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA STATEJoshua Austin · SIGNEE ★3Cooper Sherrod · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
RBSolomon Baggett · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · ARKANSAS STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
50.178 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
73.197 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
34.937 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB545464051 OF 5 GRADED
RB26262481102 OF 10 GRADED
WR/TE4343275821CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL525230021CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL6363387215 OF 21 GRADED
LB333358792 OF 9 GRADED
DB44443260229 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE34th34
BLUE-CHIP RATIO4%24
RECRUITING CLASS#85 · 0/21 BC37
CLASS RANK TREND-7 · 3 CYCLES36
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 24 IN / 37 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 6th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
LTSONNY CUMBIE5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5353
PACE
6161
PASS RATE
5959
EXPLOSIVENESS
6262
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4848
HAVOC
5555
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
ARSTBUTCH JONES6TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7272
PACE
7272
PASS RATE
7474
EXPLOSIVENESS
4949
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3131
HAVOC
5353
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESARST OFFENSELT OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBARKANSAS STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
64OF 138
TAL
64
PERF
54
RET
0
NATIONAL
64OF 136
RET
19
FULL DEFENSELOUISIANA TECH DEFENSE
ARST QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TREY OWENSQBPORTAL · TEXAS
493RD YR3364★3+32
DREW DICKEYQBPORTAL · VANDERBILT
444TH YR—9★3—
ETHAN CRAWFORDQBRET
454TH YR—5★3-13 2025
JEREMY ST-HILAIREQBPORTAL · VANDERBILT
373RD YR—45★3—
MASON SCHUBERTQBTRUE FR
302ND YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LT DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 49 PLAYERS41% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
2566%7%
LINEBACKERSLB
5277%0%
SECONDARYDB
4849%0%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLARKANSAS STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
68OF 138
TAL
30
PERF
52
RET
0
DL
134OF 138
DL RET
66
LB
53OF 138
LB RET
77
FRONT-7LOUISIANA TECH DEFENSE
ARST OFFENSIVE LINEn=21100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TRISTIAN SMITHOLRET
784TH YR—45★3+50 2025
MASON MYERSOLRET
554TH YR—40★3+38 2025
GABE FORTSONOLRET
524TH YR—17★3—
CAMERON AMBROSEOLRET
514TH YR——UNR—
WIL SAXTONOLRET
504TH YR—17★3+14 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LT FRONT-7n=27 · 2 ROOMS29% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KOLBE FIELDSLBRET
694TH YR9167★3+15
JACOB BRADFORDDLRET
552ND YR—44★3—
JADON MAYFIELDLBRET
552ND YR7743★3+23
JUSTICE WILLIAMSDLPORTAL · WEST FLORIDA
524TH YR—88★4—
ZA'QWAUN NUNNDLTRUE FR
521ST YR—55★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBARKANSAS STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
136OF 138
TAL
24
PERF
26
RET
81
DL
134OF 138
DL RET
66
LB
53OF 138
LB RET
77
FRONT-7LOUISIANA TECH DEFENSE
ARST RUNNING BACKSn=1019% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KENYON CLAYRBRET
424TH YR9517★3-5
EZELL JOLLYRBTRUE FR
414TH YR5857★3-49
TIMOTHY CARTERRBTRUE FR
373RD YR——UNR—
SOLOMON BAGGETTRBTRUE FR
351ST YR—52★3—
JAMES LEERBTRUE FR
304TH YR——UNR—
SHOW ALL 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LT FRONT-72 ROOMS · 27 PLAYERS29% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.552566%7%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.455277%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEARKANSAS STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
101OF 138
TAL
27
PERF
43
RET
58
DB
88OF 138
DB RET
49
SECONDARYLOUISIANA TECH DEFENSE
ARST PASS CATCHERSn=2142% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CHAUNCY COBBWRRET
564TH YR8926★3+6
TYLER LITTLETERET
564TH YR—42★3-29 2025
JOSHUA BURRELLTEPORTAL · FURMAN
504TH YR979★3—
HUNTER SUMMERSWRRET
474TH YR9217★3-12
JABARI BUSHTERET
473RD YR4232★3-16
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LT SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM51% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
AMARI BUTLERDBRET
654TH YR——UNR+15 2025
KAM FRANKLINDBRET
633RD YR515★3-1
SAM FONGANGDBRET
554TH YR51—UNR+17
JORDAN MCRAEDBRET
523RD YR43—UNR—
TAEDEN ROGERSDBTRUE FR
502ND YR——UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
ARST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
LT
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
45.0
57.0
— OFFENSE
51.1
63.9
— DEFENSE
39.0
50.1
SP+ OVERALL
-7.1
-5.3
FPI
-10.2
-7.0
ELO
1319
1377
TALENT
606
543
PRODUCTION
23
27
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+9
−1
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.04
0.04
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
ARST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
LT
OFF EFFICIENCY
45
30
DEF EFFICIENCY
29
86
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
11
47
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
29
10
FINISHING DRIVES
9
35
FIELD POSITION
27
48
TURNOVER MARGIN
24
95
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
ARST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
LT
PASS RATE
44.2%
50.0%
PACE
32.7s
29.0s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
63.7%
58.2%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
68.3%
65.6%
PLAYS / GAME
55.0
62.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
2.4%
3.8%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = ARST, ORANGE = LT) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE