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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 13›TROY @ ARST›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
M-OH @ WMU0
KENT @ EMU0
TCU @ TTU0
TULN @ USF0
TEM @ MEM0
FAU @ ECU0
NEB @ IOWA0
MSST @ MISS0
TOL @ OHIO0
BUF @ AKR0
APP @ USA0
NDSU @ SJSU0
FLA @ FSU0
MINN @ WIS0
TEX @ TA&M0
WVU @ UTAH0
USC @ UCLA0
TENN @ VAN0
CONN @ WYO0
AUB @ ALA0
CCU @ JMU0
NAVY @ CLT0
NCSU @ UNC0
DUKE @ WAKE0
TLSA @ UTSA0
BAY @ HOU0
ARMY @ RICE0
GT @ UGA0
LSU @ ARK0
LOU @ UK0
LT @ GASO0
PUR @ IU0
SMU @ STAN0
UCF @ COLO0
MRSH @ ULM0
PSU @ MD0
KU @ OKST0
WASH @ ORE0
PITT @ CAL0
OU @ MIZ0
USM @ ODU0
UVA @ VT0
SC @ CLEM0
ND @ SYR0
ASU @ ARIZ0
UAB @ UNT0
BC @ MIA0
KSU @ ISU0
UL @ GAST0
CIN @ BYU0
MSU @ RUTG0
UTEP @ NIU0
ILL @ NU0
CMU @ BALL0
MICH @ OSU0
MASS @ BGSU0
KENN @ WKU0
LIB @ MOST0
SHSU @ FIU0
NMSU @ MTSU0
TROY @ ARST0
JXST @ DEL0
AF @ UNM0
NEV @ UNLV0
SAC @ HAW0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
TROY
ARKANSAS STATE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 15:00 ET|CENTENNIAL BANK STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP4|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
95FPI
TROYSBCTROY
2-1
31
10
44
35%
61
—
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
111FPI
ARSTSBCARKANSAS STATE
1-2
34
13
33
30%
7
—
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
TROY67CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
93
PROE
45
TEMPO
61
EXPLOSIVE93p
93
PROE45p
45
TEMPO61p
61
ARST40CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
27
PROE
86
TEMPO
7
EXPLOSIVE27p
27
PROE86p
86
TEMPO7p
7
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
TROYRECORD OVERSTATES
8-5ACTUALvs6.5-6.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME-0.2
TROY won 8 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 6.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ARSTRECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs5.2-6.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME-2.9
ARKANSAS STATE won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERTROYARKANSAS STATE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DL88%Jah-Mal WilliamsDE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONElijah DavisDE · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTaleeq RobbinsDE · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION9 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE82%Ethan ConnerTE · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDJ EppsPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRara ThomasWR · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB69%Devin LafayetteS · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKaleno LevineCB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaquez WhitePORTAL · VIRGINIA TECH · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB61%Tae MeadowsPORTAL · AUBURN · 53% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJarris WilliamsRB · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB58%Jordan StringerLB · 40% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSteven CattledgeLB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL58%Matt HenryOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONPaul BowlingOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEli RussOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB3%Ui AlePORTAL · DELAWARE STATE · 3% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DLKavion Henderson · PORTAL ★3 · ARKANSASAugust Salvati · PORTAL ★3 · SAN DIEGO STATETy Clemons · PORTAL ★3 · BOSTON COLLEGE3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEDylan Denson · SIGNEE ★3Nick Hampton · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBMarcus Goree Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · TENNESSEEKnai Cook · PORTAL ★3 · CHARLESTON SOUTHERNJonathan Pennix · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTHERN MISS4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBJaheim Merriweather · PORTAL ★3 · PURDUEREFILLED
LBBryce Steele · PORTAL ★3 · BOSTON COLLEGEKendarius Reynolds · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLJordon Jones · PORTAL ★3 · OHIOTrinton Pritchett · SIGNEE ★3Corey Dudley Jr. · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
QBNO STARTING ROLE OPENEDINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · TROY
CARRIED COMPOSITE
26.317 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
25.525 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
26.717 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB26267310041 OF 4 GRADED
RB2020522973 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE39394617207 OF 20 GRADED
OL31311540175 OF 17 GRADED
DL57573427136 OF 13 GRADED
LB61612145137 OF 13 GRADED
DB47475079228 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE31st31
BLUE-CHIP RATIO9%43
RECRUITING CLASS#76 · 0/16 BC44
CLASS RANK TREND+13 · 3 CYCLES76
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 14 IN / 27 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
ARSTBUTCH JONES6TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7272
PACE
7272
PASS RATE
7474
EXPLOSIVENESS
4949
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3131
HAVOC
5353
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
TROYGERAD PARKER3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3636
PACE
3333
PASS RATE
5454
EXPLOSIVENESS
5757
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6060
HAVOC
6262
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESTROY OFFENSEARST OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBTROY OFFENSE
NATIONAL
135OF 138
TAL
73
PERF
26
RET
100
NATIONAL
100OF 136
RET
21
FULL DEFENSEARKANSAS STATE DEFENSE
TROY QUARTERBACKSn=40% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
GOOSE CROWDERQBRET
484TH YR6973★3-9
TUCKER KILCREASEQBRET
444TH YR—30★3-9 2025
RODGE WALDROPQBTRUE FR
303RD YR——UNR—
JACK JAMESQBRET
372ND YR—54★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARST DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 52 PLAYERS64% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
637%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
337%0%
SECONDARYDB
4460%5%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLTROY OFFENSE
NATIONAL
132OF 138
TAL
15
PERF
31
RET
40
DL
27OF 138
DL RET
7
LB
121OF 138
LB RET
7
FRONT-7ARKANSAS STATE DEFENSE
TROY OFFENSIVE LINEn=1760% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ELIJAH PRATHEROLRET
614TH YR——UNR-28 2025
TYLER CAPPIOLRET
534TH YR——UNR-29 2025
DARION RIVERSOLPORTAL · NC STATE
494TH YR—17★3—
JORDON JONESOLPORTAL · OHIO
494TH YR—17★3-18 2025
PATRICK SCREWS JR.OLRET
484TH YR—9★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARST FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS93% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
SHAKAI WOODSDTPORTAL · MIDDLE TENNESSEE
544TH YR—28★3-37 2025
RYAN REESEDTRET
502ND YR4762★3—
TONY CARTERDERET
462ND YR4454★3—
KAM MOORELBPORTAL · UCF
414TH YR—9★3—
ROBERT STEVENSLBTRUE FR
384TH YR20—UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBTROY OFFENSE
NATIONAL
138OF 138
TAL
52
PERF
20
RET
29
DL
27OF 138
DL RET
7
LB
121OF 138
LB RET
7
FRONT-7ARKANSAS STATE DEFENSE
TROY RUNNING BACKSn=771% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
GAVIN GRIFFINRBTRUE FR
493RD YR31—UNR-9
JAHEIM MERRIWEATHERRBPORTAL · PURDUE
483RD YR3628★3-34
JORDAN LOVETTRBRET
414TH YR7371★3-33
BRYCE BURGESSRBTRUE FR
303RD YR——UNR—
DENNIS PALMERRBRET
503RD YR—28★3-46 2025
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARST FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS93% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.55637%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.45337%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TETROY OFFENSE
NATIONAL
119OF 138
TAL
46
PERF
39
RET
17
DB
109OF 138
DB RET
60
SECONDARYARKANSAS STATE DEFENSE
TROY PASS CATCHERSn=2083% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JACKSON WORLEYTERET
554TH YR4732★3+4
NOREEL WHITEWRTRUE FR
513RD YR988★4—
FABIAN ROGOSCHTERET
494TH YR18—UNR—
TK KEYESWRTRUE FR
463RD YR—37★3—
TJ LOTTWRPORTAL · OLD DOMINION
464TH YR4117★3-19
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARST SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM40% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
FIVE HAMILTONSPORTAL · KENNESAW STATE
584TH YR7328★3+25
KYLE WILLIAMSCBRET
533RD YR4430★3—
MALEKHI WEEDONSRET
522ND YR—43★3—
BRANDON GREILSRET
504TH YR7831★3-29
NOAH FLORESCBTRUE FR
494TH YR70—UNR-28
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
TROY
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ARST
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
51.9
45.0
— OFFENSE
47.9
51.1
— DEFENSE
55.9
39.0
SP+ OVERALL
-7.1
-7.1
FPI
-6.0
-10.2
ELO
1421
1319
TALENT
596
606
PRODUCTION
30
23
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+25
+9
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.09
0.04
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
TROY
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ARST
OFF EFFICIENCY
14
45
DEF EFFICIENCY
66
29
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
71
11
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
33
29
FINISHING DRIVES
56
9
FIELD POSITION
20
27
TURNOVER MARGIN
50
24
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
TROY
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ARST
PASS RATE
44.3%
44.2%
PACE
26.9s
32.7s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
65.9%
63.7%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
65.2%
68.3%
PLAYS / GAME
67.0
55.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
2.4%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = TROY, ORANGE = ARST) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE