SAT 18:00 ET|VETERANS MEMORIAL STADIUM (AL)CONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP11|O/U59.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
50
7-5
33
65
37
40%
55
6
26.0
—
+7.0
HOME
43
5-7
22
67
8
47%
91
30
33.0
—
-7.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2019CONSENSUS · CONSENSUS
FINALARST50—TROY43
CLOSED TROY -7.0TOTAL 59.0ARST COVERED · 93 POINTS · OVER
ARST
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
TROY
ARST
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
TROY
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2019 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 5 FIELD n=51
MARKET
TOTAL59.0
SPREADTROY -7.0
IMPLIED — ARST26.0
IMPLIED — TROY33.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
76FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT21 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 21 positions on a 51-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2019 · FULL SEASON
ARSTRECORD OVERSTATES
7-5ACTUALvs5.8-6.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-1.2
ARKANSAS STATE won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TROYRECORD MATCHES
5-7ACTUALvs5.8-6.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-0.9
TROY won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERARKANSAS STATETROY2019 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB0%Justice HansenQB · SHARE NOT MEASURED
RB0%Armond Weh-WehRB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE0%Kendrick EdwardsWR · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL0%Lanard BonnerOL · SHARE NOT MEASURED
DL0%Jarrod ChandlerDE · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB0%Antwon TurnageLB · SHARE NOT MEASURED
DB0%Justin CliftonDB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBNO STARTING ROLE OPENEDINTACT
RBIsaiah Azubuike · SIGNEE ★3Samy Johnson · SIGNEE ★3Jaquerrious Williams · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
WR/TESeth Hayes · SIGNEE ★3David Clayton · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
OLCarson Williams · SIGNEE ★2Ethan Miner · SIGNEE ★2INTACT
DLNO STARTING ROLE OPENEDINTACT
LBDane Motley · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
DBJarius Reimonenq · SIGNEE ★3Zac Tuinei · SIGNEE ★2Anthony Switzer · SIGNEE ★2INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · ARKANSAS STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
0.00 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB———75CARRIED FROM 2018 · NOTHING GRADED YET
RB———448CARRIED FROM 2018 · NOTHING GRADED YET
WR/TE————22CARRIED FROM 2018 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL————19CARRIED FROM 2018 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL————16CARRIED FROM 2018 · NOTHING GRADED YET
LB————10CARRIED FROM 2018 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DB————27CARRIED FROM 2018 · NOTHING GRADED YET
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE33rd33
BLUE-CHIP RATIO0%13
RECRUITING CLASS#95 · 0/15 BC29
CLASS RANK TREND+16 · 3 CYCLES82
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 4th YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX29%50
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
TROYCHIP LINDSEYFIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
ARSTBLAKE ANDERSON4TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
2424
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5858
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESARST OFFENSETROY OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBARKANSAS STATE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSETROY DEFENSE ARST QUARTERBACKSn=593% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TROY DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 53 PLAYERSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLARKANSAS STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7TROY DEFENSE ARST OFFENSIVE LINEn=19RETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TROY FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBARKANSAS STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7TROY DEFENSE ARST RUNNING BACKSn=856% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TROY FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEARKANSAS STATE OFFENSESECONDARYTROY DEFENSE ARST PASS CATCHERSn=22RETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TROY SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOMRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
ARST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TROY
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−13
−18
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
ARST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TROY
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS52.3%
51.4%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS65.2%
76.4%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.0%
1.4%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = ARST, ORANGE = TROY) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2019, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE