SAT 12:00 ET|MEMORIAL STADIUM (CHAMPAIGN, IL)CONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP34|O/U62.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
32
9-4
88
99
47
37%
27
90
34.5
-250
-6.5
HOME
34
9-4
54
71
60
53%
19
64
28.0
+205
+6.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2025CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALUSC32—ILL34
CLOSED USC -6.5TOTAL 62.5ILL COVERED · 66 POINTS · OVER
USC
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
ILL
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 5 FIELD n=51
MARKET
TOTAL62.5
SPREADUSC -6.5
IMPLIED — USC34.5
IMPLIED — ILL28.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
56FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT10 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 10 positions on a 51-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
USCRECORD MATCHES
9-3ACTUALvs9.1-2.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+14.1
USC won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ILLRECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs7.6-4.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+6.1
ILLINOIS won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERUSCILLINOIS2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB92%Woody MarksDRAFTED · 66% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONQuinten JoynerRB · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONA'Marion PetersonPORTAL · UTSA · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
LB82%Easton Mascarenas-ArnoldLB · 35% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMason CobbLB · 31% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSam GreenePORTAL · KENTUCKY · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB71%Akili ArnoldS · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaylin SmithDRAFTED · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGreedy Vance Jr.CB · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB68%Miller MossPORTAL · LOUISVILLE · 68% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL56%Emmanuel PregnonPORTAL · OREGON · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMason MurphyPORTAL · AUBURN · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJonah MonheimDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE51%Kyron HudsonPORTAL · PENN STATE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZachariah BranchPORTAL · GEORGIA · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDuce RobinsonPORTAL · FLORIDA STATE · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL47%Gavin MeyerDT · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJamil MuhammadDE · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNate CliftonDT · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBHarry Dalton III · SIGNEE ★4Riley Wormley · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
LBTa'Mere Robinson · PORTAL ★3 · PENN STATEMatai Tagoa'i · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
DBBishop Fitzgerald · PORTAL ★3 · NC STATEChasen Johnson · PORTAL ★3 · UCFDJ Harvey · PORTAL ★3 · SAN JOSÉ STATE5 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
QBHusan Longstreet · SIGNEE ★5PARTIAL
OLDJ Wingfield · PORTAL ★4 · PURDUEJ'Onre Reed · PORTAL ★4 · SYRACUSEAaron Dunn · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TECorey Simms · SIGNEE ★4Romero Ison · SIGNEE ★4Tanook Hines · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
DLKeeshawn Silver · PORTAL ★4 · KENTUCKYJamaal Jarrett · PORTAL ★4 · GEORGIAJahkeem Stewart · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · USC
CARRIED COMPOSITE
34.033 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
37.239 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
31.933 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB7676929553 OF 5 GRADED
RB5454421277 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE757586792615 OF 26 GRADED
OL515172752013 OF 20 GRADED
DL656593731615 OF 16 GRADED
LB545476781010 OF 10 GRADED
DB636376662220 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE88th88
BLUE-CHIP RATIO49%87
RECRUITING CLASS#14 · 13/28 BC90
CLASS RANK TREND-6 · 3 CYCLES38
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-5 · 15 IN / 28 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 4th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
ILLBRET BIELEMA5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5858
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4444
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
USCLINCOLN RILEY4TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9797
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6767
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESUSC OFFENSEILL OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBUSC OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEILLINOIS DEFENSE USC QUARTERBACKSn=55% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ILL DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 57 PLAYERS17% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLUSC OFFENSEFRONT-7ILLINOIS DEFENSE USC OFFENSIVE LINEn=2025% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ILL FRONT-7n=34 · 2 ROOMS37% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBUSC OFFENSEFRONT-7ILLINOIS DEFENSE USC RUNNING BACKSn=788% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ILL FRONT-72 ROOMS · 34 PLAYERS35% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555446%0%LINEBACKERSLB
0.455488%11%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEUSC OFFENSESECONDARYILLINOIS DEFENSE USC PASS CATCHERSn=2621% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ILL SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM0% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
USC
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ILL
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−1
−30
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
USC
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ILL
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
USC
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ILL
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS54.0%
58.1%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS65.5%
64.8%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.7%
0.9%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = USC, ORANGE = ILL) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2025, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE