SAT 19:00 ET|CENTER PARC STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP10|O/U63.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
9
5-7
37
54
0
86%
48
13
29.3
—
+4.5
HOME
20
7-5
26
32
49
100%
44
29
33.8
—
-4.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2021CONSENSUS · CONSENSUS
FINALCLT9—GAST20
CLOSED GAST -4.5TOTAL 63.0GAST COVERED · 29 POINTS · UNDER
CLT
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
GAST
CLT
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
GAST
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2021 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 3 FIELD n=52
MARKET
TOTAL63.0
SPREADGAST -4.5
IMPLIED — CLT29.3
IMPLIED — GAST33.8
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
56FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT10 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 10 positions on a 52-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2021 · FULL SEASON
CLTRECORD MATCHES
5-7ACTUALvs4.4-7.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME-6.8
CHARLOTTE won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
GASTRECORD OVERSTATES
7-5ACTUALvs5.6-6.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-1.4
GEORGIA STATE won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERCHARLOTTEGEORGIA STATE2021 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
RB0%Tre HarbisonRB · SHARE NOT MEASURED
WR/TE0%Rico ArnoldPORTAL · MASSACHUSETTS · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
DL0%Romeo McKnightDE · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
DB0%Ben DeLucaDB · SHARE NOT MEASURED
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
RBShadrick Byrd · PORTAL ★3 · IOWAChavion Smith · SIGNEE ★3Hahsaun Wilson · SIGNEE ★2INTACT
WR/TEJairus Mack · SIGNEE ★3Elijah Spencer · SIGNEE ★3Colin Weber · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
OLNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
DLJoshua Bailey · PORTAL ★3 · IOWA STATETyson Clawson · SIGNEE ★3Isaiah Potts · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
LBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
DBTank Robinson · PORTAL ★3 · EAST CAROLINASteven Parker · SIGNEE ★3Douglas Newsome · SIGNEE ★2INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · CHARLOTTE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
0.00 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB———1008CARRIED FROM 2020 · NOTHING GRADED YET
RB———2010CARRIED FROM 2020 · NOTHING GRADED YET
WR/TE————26CARRIED FROM 2020 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL————16CARRIED FROM 2020 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL————26CARRIED FROM 2020 · NOTHING GRADED YET
LB————14CARRIED FROM 2020 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DB————28CARRIED FROM 2020 · NOTHING GRADED YET
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE36th36
BLUE-CHIP RATIO3%28
RECRUITING CLASS#101 · 0/24 BC25
CLASS RANK TREND+31 · 3 CYCLES100
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX48%99
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
GASTSHAWN ELLIOTT5TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
77
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4242
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
CLTWILL HEALY3TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8080
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9797
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESCLT OFFENSEGAST OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBCHARLOTTE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEGEORGIA STATE DEFENSE CLT QUARTERBACKSn=80% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
GAST DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 50 PLAYERSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLCHARLOTTE OFFENSEFRONT-7GEORGIA STATE DEFENSE CLT OFFENSIVE LINEn=16RETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
GAST FRONT-7n=34 · 2 ROOMSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBCHARLOTTE OFFENSEFRONT-7GEORGIA STATE DEFENSE CLT RUNNING BACKSn=1080% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
GAST FRONT-72 ROOMS · 34 PLAYERSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TECHARLOTTE OFFENSESECONDARYGEORGIA STATE DEFENSE CLT PASS CATCHERSn=26RETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
GAST SECONDARYn=16 · 1 ROOMRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
CLT
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
GAST
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+21
−23
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
CLT
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
GAST
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS54.0%
72.2%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS60.7%
59.9%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.1%
1.5%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = CLT, ORANGE = GAST) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2021, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE