SAT 19:30 ET|MEMORIAL STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP70|O/U57.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
6
0-12
15
0
1
76%
45
9
6.5
—
+44.5
HOME
42
8-5
85
82
99
20%
87
96
51.0
—
-44.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2025CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALMASS6—MIZ42
CLOSED MIZ -44.5TOTAL 57.5MASS COVERED · 48 POINTS · UNDER
MASS
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
MIZ
MASS
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
MIZ
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 5 FIELD n=51
MARKET
TOTAL57.5
SPREADMIZ -44.5
IMPLIED — MASS6.5
IMPLIED — MIZ51.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
54FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT7 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 7 positions on a 51-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
MASSRECORD MATCHES
0-12ACTUALvs0.6-11.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-27.5
MASSACHUSETTS won 0 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 0.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
MIZRECORD UNDERSTATES
8-4ACTUALvs9.2-2.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+12.8
MISSOURI won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERMASSACHUSETTSMISSOURI2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB97%CJ HesterRB · 39% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJalen JohnPORTAL · COASTAL CAROLINA · 34% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrandon CampbellRB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB90%Jalen StewartPORTAL · TEMPLE · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGerrell JohnsonLB · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKofi AsarePORTAL · FLORIDA · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB88%Lake EllisDB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTe'Rai PowellDB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTyler RudolphS · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB75%Taisun PhommachanhQB · 72% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE73%Dominick MazottiTE · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJakobie Keeney-JamesWR · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSterling GalbanPORTAL · EAST TENNESSEE STATE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL70%Josh AtwoodOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEthan MottingerOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrayden RohmeOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL65%Louce JulienPORTAL · TOLEDO · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaylen HudsonDL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAaron BeckwithPORTAL · TEMPLE · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBBrandon Hood · PORTAL ★3 · COLORADOJuwaun Price · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH TEXASREFILLED
LBTimmy Hinspeter · PORTAL ★3 · RUTGERSDinos Drossos · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBDD Snyder · PORTAL ★3 · BALL STATEMalcolm Greene · PORTAL ★3 · VIRGINIARaheim Sexil · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA INTERNATIONALPARTIAL
QBBrandon Rose · PORTAL ★3 · UTAHGrant Jordan · PORTAL ★3 · YALEZach Lawrence · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
WR/TEMatt Ogunniyi · PORTAL ★3 · RUTGERSAlex Geraci · PORTAL ★3 · DARTMOUTHDonnie Gray · PORTAL ★3 · NORTHWESTERN1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
OLKyle Brown · PORTAL ★3 · DARTMOUTHSullivan Weidman · PORTAL ★3 · WEST VIRGINIAZachary Franks · PORTAL ★3 · DUKE3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLRomando Johnson · PORTAL ★3 · WEST VIRGINIAMalachi Madison · PORTAL ★3 · VIRGINIA TECHTimothy Passmore Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · UCONN2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · MASSACHUSETTS
CARRIED COMPOSITE
20.19 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
22.014 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
18.89 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB3333455353 OF 5 GRADED
RB171717675 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE212130201814 OF 18 GRADED
OL212132451612 OF 16 GRADED
DL161631411916 OF 19 GRADED
LB15152473108 OF 10 GRADED
DB292921371413 OF 14 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE15th15
BLUE-CHIP RATIO4%22
RECRUITING CLASS#145 · 0/11 BC0
CLASS RANK TREND-18 · 3 CYCLES14
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 35 IN / 27 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
MIZELI DRINKWITZ6TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3535
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1414
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
MASSJOE HARASYMIAKFIRST SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7171
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5050
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESMASS OFFENSEMIZ OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBMASSACHUSETTS OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEMISSOURI DEFENSE MASS QUARTERBACKSn=547% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MIZ DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 46 PLAYERS38% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLMASSACHUSETTS OFFENSEFRONT-7MISSOURI DEFENSE MASS OFFENSIVE LINEn=1655% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MIZ FRONT-7n=28 · 2 ROOMS37% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBMASSACHUSETTS OFFENSEFRONT-7MISSOURI DEFENSE MASS RUNNING BACKSn=794% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MIZ FRONT-72 ROOMS · 28 PLAYERS37% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.558261%33%LINEBACKERSLB
0.458066%30%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEMASSACHUSETTS OFFENSESECONDARYMISSOURI DEFENSE MASS PASS CATCHERSn=1880% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MIZ SECONDARYn=18 · 1 ROOM39% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
MASS
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MIZ
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+13
−1
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
MASS
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MIZ
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
MASS
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MIZ
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS53.0%
66.8%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS74.7%
67.1%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE2.2%
1.4%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = MASS, ORANGE = MIZ) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2025, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE