SAT 19:00 ET|CENTENNIAL BANK STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP4|O/U59.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
24
7-6
33
45
2
92%
68
22
30.5
-110
-1.5
HOME
34
7-6
37
13
33
59%
98
13
29.0
-110
+1.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2025CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALGASO24—ARST34
CLOSED GASO -1.5TOTAL 59.5ARST COVERED · 58 POINTS · UNDER
GASO
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
ARST
GASO
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
ARST
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 9 FIELD n=53
MARKET
TOTAL59.5
SPREADGASO -1.5
IMPLIED — GASO30.5
IMPLIED — ARST29.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
64FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT2 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 2 positions on a 53-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
GASORECORD OVERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs4.6-7.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-6.3
GEORGIA SOUTHERN won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ARSTRECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs5.2-6.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME-2.9
ARKANSAS STATE won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERGEORGIA SOUTHERNARKANSAS STATE2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
LB70%Marques Watson-TrentPORTAL · NEBRASKA · 28% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONIsaac WalkerPORTAL · JACKSONVILLE STATE · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDavon GilmoreLB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE66%Derwin Burgess Jr.WR · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTyler FrommTE · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLV Bunkley-SheltonWR · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB52%Jalen WhiteRB · 52% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL48%Elhadj FallPORTAL · VIRGINIA TECH · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJustin RhodesDL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTroy PikesPORTAL · SOUTH CAROLINA · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB41%Marc Stampley IIPORTAL · HOUSTON · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDeontre MorrisPORTAL · ALABAMA STATE · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTJ SmithDB · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL40%Bryson BroadwayOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDom BoydOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB7%Dexter Williams IIPORTAL · KENNESAW STATE · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
LBBrandon Tyson · PORTAL ★3 · ELONEthan Johnson · SIGNEE ★3Braxtin McLester · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
WR/TERiver Helms · PORTAL ★3 · WESTERN KENTUCKYCamden Brown · PORTAL ★3 · AUBURNJeremiah Ware · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
DLKwon McGinney · PORTAL ★3 · ARKANSAS STATEMarcus Downs · PORTAL ★3 · UCFAmari Wilson · SIGNEE ★34 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBAntonio White Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · RUTGERSFabo Chaney · SIGNEE ★3Elijah Ffrench · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLBrandon Stoner · SIGNEE ★3Tay McKibbins · SIGNEE ★3Ike Turner · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
QBCharlie Johnston · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · GEORGIA SOUTHERN
CARRIED COMPOSITE
56.086 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
68.497 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
48.663 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB4040629263 OF 6 GRADED
RB6767537976 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE636319502214 OF 22 GRADED
OL595938752013 OF 20 GRADED
DL232346461610 OF 16 GRADED
LB313137281611 OF 16 GRADED
DB494927742217 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE33rd33
BLUE-CHIP RATIO7%36
RECRUITING CLASS#80 · 1/21 BC41
CLASS RANK TREND+21 · 3 CYCLES92
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 16 IN / 18 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 4th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
ARSTBUTCH JONES5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7272
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3131
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
GASOCLAY HELTON4TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9494
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1818
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESGASO OFFENSEARST OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBGEORGIA SOUTHERN OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEARKANSAS STATE DEFENSE GASO QUARTERBACKSn=68% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARST DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 56 PLAYERS70% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLGEORGIA SOUTHERN OFFENSEFRONT-7ARKANSAS STATE DEFENSE GASO OFFENSIVE LINEn=2025% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARST FRONT-7n=36 · 2 ROOMS70% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBGEORGIA SOUTHERN OFFENSEFRONT-7ARKANSAS STATE DEFENSE GASO RUNNING BACKSn=721% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARST FRONT-72 ROOMS · 36 PLAYERS70% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556331%5%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEGEORGIA SOUTHERN OFFENSESECONDARYARKANSAS STATE DEFENSE GASO PASS CATCHERSn=2250% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARST SECONDARYn=20 · 1 ROOM69% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
GASO
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ARST
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+8
+10
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
GASO
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ARST
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
GASO
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ARST
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS52.1%
50.8%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS62.1%
74.3%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.9%
0.3%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = GASO, ORANGE = ARST) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2025, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE