WED 19:00 ET|WARREN MCGUIRK ALUMNI STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP5|O/U43.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
45
3-9
9
3
26
53%
9
15
26.0
-380
-8.5
HOME
3
0-12
15
0
1
76%
45
20
17.5
+290
+8.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2025CONSENSUS · ESPN BET
FINALNIU45—MASS3
CLOSED NIU -8.5TOTAL 43.5NIU COVERED · 48 POINTS · OVER
NIU
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
MASS
NIU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
MASS
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 12 FIELD n=58
MARKET
TOTAL43.5
SPREADNIU -8.5
IMPLIED — NIU26.0
IMPLIED — MASS17.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
44FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT15 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 15 positions on a 58-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
NIURECORD MATCHES
3-9ACTUALvs3.6-8.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-7.3
NORTHERN ILLINOIS won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
MASSRECORD MATCHES
0-12ACTUALvs0.6-11.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-27.5
MASSACHUSETTS won 0 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 0.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERNORTHERN ILLINOISMASSACHUSETTS2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
WR/TE80%Tristen TewesTE · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGrayson BarnesPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCam ThompsonWR · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB78%JaVaughn ByrdCB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNate ValcarcelS · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJashon PropheteDB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB77%Jaden DolphinLB · 39% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChristian FuhrmanLB · 38% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB76%Gavin WilliamsRB · 44% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAntario BrownRB · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrock LampeFB · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL73%Logan ZschernitzOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJohn ChampeOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJ.J. LippeOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB66%Ethan HamptonPORTAL · ILLINOIS · 66% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL53%Devonte O'MalleyDT · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSkyler Gill-HowardPORTAL · TEXAS TECH · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCade HabermanDT · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
WR/TEThomas McCoy · PORTAL ★3 · MARSHALLLiam Russo · SIGNEE ★3Casey Popish · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
DBJames Finley · SIGNEE ★3James Little IV · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
LBEliot Hummer · SIGNEE ★3Kimar Nelson · SIGNEE ★3Trenton Nixon · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBLazaro Rogers · SIGNEE ★3Triston White · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLDane Schmidtknecht · SIGNEE ★3Tyler Rindels · SIGNEE ★3Tyler Chambers · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
QBBrady Davidson · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLMicah Cook · SIGNEE ★3Fawzy Omotoso · SIGNEE ★3Zach Morrisroe · SIGNEE ★34 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · NORTHERN ILLINOIS
CARRIED COMPOSITE
22.511 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
11.55 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
30.226 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB4545316554 OF 5 GRADED
RB6464274186 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE222233582113 OF 21 GRADED
OL303032541812 OF 18 GRADED
DL212138742215 OF 22 GRADED
LB38383192138 OF 13 GRADED
DB464646441815 OF 18 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE9th9
BLUE-CHIP RATIO0%3
RECRUITING CLASS#84 · 0/29 BC38
CLASS RANK TREND+19 · 3 CYCLES88
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 4 IN / 26 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 7th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
MASSJOE HARASYMIAKFIRST SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7171
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5050
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
NIUTHOMAS HAMMOCK7TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
88
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5757
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESNIU OFFENSEMASS OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBNORTHERN ILLINOIS OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEMASSACHUSETTS DEFENSE NIU QUARTERBACKSn=535% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MASS DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 43 PLAYERS56% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLNORTHERN ILLINOIS OFFENSEFRONT-7MASSACHUSETTS DEFENSE NIU OFFENSIVE LINEn=1846% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MASS FRONT-7n=29 · 2 ROOMS46% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBNORTHERN ILLINOIS OFFENSEFRONT-7MASSACHUSETTS DEFENSE NIU RUNNING BACKSn=859% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MASS FRONT-72 ROOMS · 29 PLAYERS45% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.551641%11%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TENORTHERN ILLINOIS OFFENSESECONDARYMASSACHUSETTS DEFENSE NIU PASS CATCHERSn=2142% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MASS SECONDARYn=14 · 1 ROOM63% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
NIU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MASS
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+2
+13
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
NIU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MASS
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
NIU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MASS
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS72.1%
53.0%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS49.6%
74.7%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE2.8%
2.2%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = NIU, ORANGE = MASS) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2025, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE