SAT 15:30 ET|KINNICK STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP3|O/U43.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
17
4-8
73
64
49
69%
34
—
12.8
+575
+17.5
HOME
20
9-4
70
48
93
49%
9
—
30.3
-900
-17.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2025CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALMSU17—IOWA20
CLOSED IOWA -17.5TOTAL 43.0MSU COVERED · 37 POINTS · UNDER
MSU
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
IOWA
MSU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
IOWA
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 13 FIELD n=60
MARKET
TOTAL43.0
SPREADIOWA -17.5
IMPLIED — MSU12.8
IMPLIED — IOWA30.3
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
36FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT6 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 6 positions on a 60-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
MSURECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs4.6-7.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-5.3
MICHIGAN STATE won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
IOWARECORD UNDERSTATES
8-4ACTUALvs9.9-2.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME+13.8
IOWA won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERMICHIGAN STATEIOWA2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB92%Kay'Ron Lynch-AdamsRB · 91% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB60%Cal HaladayLB · 31% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJordan TurnerLB · 28% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL59%Luke NewmanDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTanner MillerOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrandon BaldwinOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB48%Ed WoodsDB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAngelo GroseDB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCharles BrantleyPORTAL · MIAMI · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL46%Khris BogleEDGE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIOND'Quan DouseDL · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAnthony Jones Jr.PORTAL · UCLA · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE37%Montorie Foster Jr.WR · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAziah JohnsonPORTAL · NORTH CAROLINA · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB9%Tommy SchusterQB · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBElijah Tau-Tolliver · PORTAL ★3 · SACRAMENTO STATEJace Clarizio · SIGNEE ★3Bryson Williams · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
LBDeJae White · SIGNEE ★3DiMari Malone · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLConner Moore · PORTAL ★4 · MONTANA STATEMatt Gulbin · PORTAL ★3 · WAKE FORESTDrew Nichols · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
DBJoshua Eaton · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS STATEAnthony Pinnace III · PORTAL ★3 · UTSANijhay Burt · PORTAL ★3 · EASTERN ILLINOIS5 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLDavid Santiago · PORTAL ★3 · AIR FORCEAnelu Lafaele · PORTAL ★3 · WISCONSINGrady Kelly · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA STATE1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
WR/TEOmari Kelly · PORTAL ★3 · MIDDLE TENNESSEEBraylon Collier · SIGNEE ★3Jayden Savoury · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
QBLeo Hannan · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · MICHIGAN STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
45.059 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
33.233 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
51.569 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB48488410042 OF 4 GRADED
RB3939757094 OF 9 GRADED
WR/TE535375602213 OF 22 GRADED
OL363661472112 OF 21 GRADED
DL484867591916 OF 19 GRADED
LB44448488137 OF 13 GRADED
DB616162482418 OF 24 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE73rd73
BLUE-CHIP RATIO19%70
RECRUITING CLASS#57 · 1/20 BC58
CLASS RANK TREND-33 · 3 CYCLES0
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 23 IN / 23 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
IOWAKIRK FERENTZ10TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1919
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
MSUJONATHAN SMITH2TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4444
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8282
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESMSU OFFENSEIOWA OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBMICHIGAN STATE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEIOWA DEFENSE MSU QUARTERBACKSn=40% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
IOWA DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 51 PLAYERS14% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLMICHIGAN STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7IOWA DEFENSE MSU OFFENSIVE LINEn=2153% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
IOWA FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS26% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBMICHIGAN STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7IOWA DEFENSE MSU RUNNING BACKSn=930% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
IOWA FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS26% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555675%17%LINEBACKERSLB
0.455173%29%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEMICHIGAN STATE OFFENSESECONDARYIOWA DEFENSE MSU PASS CATCHERSn=2240% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
IOWA SECONDARYn=19 · 1 ROOM4% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
MSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
IOWA
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+34
−22
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
MSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
IOWA
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
MSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
IOWA
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS53.8%
69.4%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS69.4%
59.4%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.0%
1.1%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = MSU, ORANGE = IOWA) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2025, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE