FRI 12:00 ET|UB STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP10|O/U44.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
31
9-4
9
53
12
65%
58
—
25.8
-250
-7.0
HOME
26
5-7
19
6
32
66%
69
—
18.8
+210
+7.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2025CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALOHIO31—BUF26
CLOSED OHIO -7.0TOTAL 44.5BUF COVERED · 57 POINTS · OVER
OHIO
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
BUF
OHIO
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
BUF
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 14 FIELD n=67
MARKET
TOTAL44.5
SPREADOHIO -7.0
IMPLIED — OHIO25.8
IMPLIED — BUF18.8
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
57FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT37 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 37 positions on a 67-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
OHIORECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs7.6-4.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+5.8
OHIO won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
BUFRECORD UNDERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs6.2-5.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME+0.5
BUFFALO won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGEROHIOBUFFALO2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
LB98%Blake LeakeLB · 38% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONShay TaylorPORTAL · CHARLOTTE · 35% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKadin SchmitzPORTAL · CHARLOTTE · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB95%Anthony Tyus IIIRB · 65% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRickey Hunt Jr.PORTAL · MIDDLE TENNESSEE · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNolan McCormickRB · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL91%Bradley WeaverPORTAL · RUTGERS · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBen McNaboeDE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBralen HendersonPORTAL · MISSOURI · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL66%Christophe AtkinsonOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONParker TitsworthOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCarson HeideckerOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB42%Dustin JohnsonS · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRoman ParodieCB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAustin BrawleyPORTAL · NEW MEXICO · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE24%Coleman OwenWR · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
LBCameron Hollobaugh · PORTAL ★3 · WALSHJermaine Minnis · SIGNEE ★3Charlie Christopher · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBSieh Bangura · PORTAL ★3 · MINNESOTAMike Taylor Jr. · SIGNEE ★3Irving Brown · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLAnas Luqman · PORTAL ★3 · ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFFPius Odjugo · PORTAL ★3 · CENTRAL MICHIGANEvan Herrmann · PORTAL ★3 · VANDERBILT4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLShedrick Rhodes Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · RUTGERSAndres Dewerk · PORTAL ★3 · APP STATEJosh Waite · PORTAL ★3 · SHIPPENSBURG1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DBRonald Jackson Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · OLD DOMINIONCaleb Chamberlin · PORTAL ★3 · AIR FORCETyson Long · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
WR/TEAlfred Jordan Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · IDAHO STATEREFILLED
QBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · OHIO
CARRIED COMPOSITE
34.434 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
43.156 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
30.025 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB67677810062 OF 6 GRADED
RB5959213263 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE404053882311 OF 23 GRADED
OL393926591812 OF 18 GRADED
DL383827201713 OF 17 GRADED
LB41412449106 OF 10 GRADED
DB292922972417 OF 24 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE9th9
BLUE-CHIP RATIO2%8
RECRUITING CLASS#121 · 0/14 BC10
CLASS RANK TREND-24 · 3 CYCLES2
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 21 IN / 16 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
BUFPETE LEMBO2TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5656
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3737
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
OHIOBRIAN SMITHFIRST SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
88
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9595
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESOHIO OFFENSEBUF OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBOHIO OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEBUFFALO DEFENSE OHIO QUARTERBACKSn=60% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BUF DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 53 PLAYERS21% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLOHIO OFFENSEFRONT-7BUFFALO DEFENSE OHIO OFFENSIVE LINEn=1841% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BUF FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS8% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBOHIO OFFENSEFRONT-7BUFFALO DEFENSE OHIO RUNNING BACKSn=668% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BUF FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS9% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554998%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEOHIO OFFENSESECONDARYBUFFALO DEFENSE OHIO PASS CATCHERSn=2312% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BUF SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM31% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
OHIO
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BUF
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−32
−12
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
OHIO
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BUF
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
OHIO
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BUF
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS65.1%
54.1%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS49.8%
67.7%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.0%
1.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = OHIO, ORANGE = BUF) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2025, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE