SAT 14:30 ET|KIDD BREWER STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP7|O/U54.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
30
7-6
37
13
33
59%
98
—
26.8
-115
+1.0
HOME
29
5-8
43
21
15
14%
85
—
27.8
-105
-1.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2025CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALARST30—APP29
CLOSED APP -1.0TOTAL 54.5ARST COVERED · 59 POINTS · OVER
ARST
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
APP
ARST
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
APP
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 14 FIELD n=67
MARKET
TOTAL54.5
SPREADAPP -1.0
IMPLIED — ARST26.8
IMPLIED — APP27.8
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
54FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT0 SLOTSBoth rankings put this game in the same place on the week's board.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
ARSTRECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs5.2-6.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME-2.9
ARKANSAS STATE won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
APPRECORD MATCHES
5-7ACTUALvs4.9-7.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME-4.5
APP STATE won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERARKANSAS STATEAPP STATE2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
LB99%Charles WillekesLB · 44% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarvin HamLB · 42% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDane MotleyLB · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB93%Trevian ThomasS · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJustin ParksS · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDontay JoynerPORTAL · MARYLAND · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL77%Tim HardimanPORTAL · TULSA · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONIan JeffriesPORTAL · PURDUE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNate MarteyDT · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE66%Manny Stevenson Jr.TE · 26% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCourtney JacksonWR · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONReagan EalyWR · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL63%Jacob BayerOL · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONElijah ZollicofferOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMakilan ThomasOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB44%Zak WallaceRB · 41% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB6%Timmy McClainPORTAL · BETHUNE-COOKMAN · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
LBAaron Alexander · PORTAL ★3 · MICHIGAN STATENigel Nelson · SIGNEE ★3Shaun Williams · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBMarquis Williams · SIGNEE ★3Courtney Patterson · SIGNEE ★3Demarcus Baker · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
DLGavin Ransaw · PORTAL ★3 · COASTAL CAROLINARyan Reese · SIGNEE ★3Ronnie Blossom · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
WR/TEJJ Harrell · PORTAL ★3 · MISSISSIPPI STATEJaylen Bonelli · PORTAL ★3 · WAGNERRomel Stevens · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLKobe Williams · PORTAL ★3 · MEMPHISZuri Madison · PORTAL ★3 · ARKANSASNoah Hacker · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
RBNasir Allen · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
QBTyrell Lewis · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · ARKANSAS STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
19.38 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
31.829 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
11.44 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB5454459962 OF 6 GRADED
RB25252149105 OF 10 GRADED
WR/TE404038672312 OF 23 GRADED
OL464628712012 OF 20 GRADED
DL636335312114 OF 21 GRADED
LB33333427158 OF 15 GRADED
DB444454312014 OF 20 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE36th36
BLUE-CHIP RATIO4%19
RECRUITING CLASS#75 · 0/24 BC44
CLASS RANK TREND-1 · 3 CYCLES48
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+1 · 32 IN / 29 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 5th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
APPDOWELL LOGGAINSFIRST SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8383
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6161
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
ARSTBUTCH JONES5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5858
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3939
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESARST OFFENSEAPP OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBARKANSAS STATE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEAPP STATE DEFENSE ARST QUARTERBACKSn=61% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
APP DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 51 PLAYERS45% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLARKANSAS STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7APP STATE DEFENSE ARST OFFENSIVE LINEn=2029% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
APP FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS58% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBARKANSAS STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7APP STATE DEFENSE ARST RUNNING BACKSn=1051% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
APP FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS56% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555028%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEARKANSAS STATE OFFENSESECONDARYAPP STATE DEFENSE ARST PASS CATCHERSn=2333% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
APP SECONDARYn=19 · 1 ROOM34% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
ARST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
APP
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+10
+23
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
ARST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
APP
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
ARST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
APP
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS50.8%
50.0%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS74.3%
76.1%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.3%
1.2%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = ARST, ORANGE = APP) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2025, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE