SAT 19:30 ET|DAVIS WADE STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP82|O/U55.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
13
0-2
4
16
42
39%
46
9
13.3
+2500
+28.5
HOME
62
2-0
86
79
63
34%
89
100
41.8
-100000
-28.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALULM13—MSST62
CLOSED MSST -28.5TOTAL 55.0MSST COVERED · 75 POINTS · OVER
ULM
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
MSST
ULM
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
MSST
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=43
MARKET
TOTAL55.0
SPREADMSST -28.5
IMPLIED — ULM13.3
IMPLIED — MSST41.8
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
56FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT3 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 3 positions on a 43-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
ULMRECORD MATCHES
3-9ACTUALvs2.1-9.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-15.3
UL MONROE won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
MSSTRECORD UNDERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs6.3-5.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+1.3
MISSISSIPPI STATE won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERUL MONROEMISSISSIPPI STATE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB100%Bam McReynoldsPORTAL · UAB · 37% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZach Palmer-SmithRB · 34% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDorian LewisRB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL70%Cliff MosleyDL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaden HamlinDL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDylan HowellDL · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB70%David Godsey Jr.DB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIOND'Arco Perkins-McAllisterDB · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKamrin CanterburyPORTAL · PRAIRIE VIEW A&M · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE63%Julian NixonTE · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRylan GreenTE · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNate Sullivan Jr.TE · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL55%Que McBroomOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONElijah FisherOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJay MickleOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
LB23%Seidrion LangstonLB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTyrese HopkinsLB · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBDonald Chaney Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · CHARLOTTEDon Chaney Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · CHARLOTTEBryson Roland · PORTAL ★3 · ARKANSAS TECH2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLLe'Kell McGowan · PORTAL ★3 · MEMPHISCJ Wilson Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · BUTLERPARTIAL
DBTaijh Overton · PORTAL ★3 · ARKANSASLarell Howling · PORTAL ★3 · COASTAL CAROLINAWilliam Wilson · PORTAL ★3 · AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEBryce Anderson · PORTAL ★3 · MEMPHISDamarcco Blanton · PORTAL ★3 · ARKANSAS STATEJase Hoath · PORTAL ★3 · TENNESSEE STATE5 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLBright Fagbamiye · PORTAL ★3 · TIFFIN UNIVERSITYSean Dugery · PORTAL ★3 · MEMPHISJeremyah Green · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
LBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
QBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · UL MONROE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
40.651 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
37.249 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
42.358 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB2626646653 OF 5 GRADED
RB606037094 OF 9 GRADED
WR/TE505034382113 OF 21 GRADED
OL454527801810 OF 18 GRADED
DL373723401510 OF 15 GRADED
LB47472576148 OF 14 GRADED
DB414128442014 OF 20 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE4th4
BLUE-CHIP RATIO11%50
RECRUITING CLASS#127 · 0/5 BC5
CLASS RANK TREND-13 · 3 CYCLES24
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 20 IN / 17 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
MSSTJEFF LEBBY3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3131
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8989
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
ULMBRYANT VINCENT3TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
44
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6767
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESULM OFFENSEMSST OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBUL MONROE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEMISSISSIPPI STATE DEFENSE ULM QUARTERBACKSn=534% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MSST DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 54 PLAYERS52% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLUL MONROE OFFENSEFRONT-7MISSISSIPPI STATE DEFENSE ULM OFFENSIVE LINEn=1820% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MSST FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS27% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBUL MONROE OFFENSEFRONT-7MISSISSIPPI STATE DEFENSE ULM RUNNING BACKSn=9100% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MSST FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS25% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554155%37%LINEBACKERSLB
0.4536100%27%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEUL MONROE OFFENSESECONDARYMISSISSIPPI STATE DEFENSE ULM PASS CATCHERSn=2162% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MSST SECONDARYn=24 · 1 ROOM73% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
ULM
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MSST
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+11
+14
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
ULM
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MSST
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
ULM
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MSST
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS70.8%
53.5%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS67.7%
34.4%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE2.3%
4.8%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = ULM, ORANGE = MSST) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE