SAT 19:00 ET|SIMMONS BANK LIBERTY STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP18|O/U52.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
24
1-2
34
13
33
30%
7
14
20.8
+270
+10.5
HOME
42
3-1
52
70
30
6%
27
36
31.3
-340
-10.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALARST24—MEM42
CLOSED MEM -10.5TOTAL 52.0MEM COVERED · 66 POINTS · OVER
ARST
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
MEM
ARST
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
MEM
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=43
MARKET
TOTAL52.0
SPREADMEM -10.5
IMPLIED — ARST20.8
IMPLIED — MEM31.3
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
49FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT0 SLOTSBoth rankings put this game in the same place on the week's board.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2026 · FULL SEASON
ARSTRECORD MATCHES
1-2ACTUALvs1.6-1.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+1.0
ARKANSAS STATE won 1 of 3 against a scoring profile describing 1.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
MEMRECORD MATCHES
3-1ACTUALvs2.6-1.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+7.5
MEMPHIS won 3 of 4 against a scoring profile describing 2.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERARKANSAS STATEMEMPHIS2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Jaylen RaynorPORTAL · IOWA STATE · 99% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL93%Ethan HasslerDL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSimeon MitchellDT · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCody SiglerPORTAL · AUBURN · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION9 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB76%Aaron AlexanderPORTAL · NORTH TEXAS · 32% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKyle TaylorLB · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJavante MackeyPORTAL · TEXAS STATE · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE45%Tyler FortenberryPORTAL · IOWA STATE · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCorey RuckerWR · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB38%Avante DickersonCB · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTrenton Alan YoweCB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL28%Riley McGeheePORTAL · MEMPHIS · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNoah SmithOL · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB6%Ja'Quez CrossPORTAL · APP STATE · 3% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBTrey Owens · PORTAL ★3 · TEXASJeremy St-Hilaire · PORTAL ★3 · VANDERBILTREFILLED
DLTyeland Coleman · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA STATEAJ Thomas · PORTAL ★3 · MCNEESESultan Badmus · PORTAL ★3 · TEMPLE3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBJoshua Ofor · PORTAL ★3 · NC STATETre Stevens · PORTAL ★3 · LAFAYETTEMckinley McShan · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
WR/TEBoski Barrett · PORTAL ★3 · VANDERBILTDeshaun Fedd · SIGNEE ★3Ty'lan Fortune · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBMakai Shahid · PORTAL ★3 · YOUNGSTOWN STATEPaul Risper · SIGNEE ★3KeAndre Gibson · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLManasse Itete · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA STATEJoshua Austin · SIGNEE ★3Cooper Sherrod · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
RBSolomon Baggett · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · ARKANSAS STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
50.178 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
73.197 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
34.937 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB545464051 OF 5 GRADED
RB26262481102 OF 10 GRADED
WR/TE4343275820CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL525230021CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL6363387215 OF 21 GRADED
LB333358782 OF 8 GRADED
DB44443260229 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE34th34
BLUE-CHIP RATIO4%24
RECRUITING CLASS#85 · 0/21 BC37
CLASS RANK TREND-7 · 3 CYCLES36
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 25 IN / 38 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 6th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
MEMCHARLES HUFFFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 3 PROGRAMMES
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3434
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1919
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
ARSTBUTCH JONES6TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5858
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3939
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESARST OFFENSEMEM OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBARKANSAS STATE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEMEMPHIS DEFENSE ARST QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MEM DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 55 PLAYERS85% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLARKANSAS STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7MEMPHIS DEFENSE ARST OFFENSIVE LINEn=21100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MEM FRONT-7n=34 · 2 ROOMS91% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBARKANSAS STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7MEMPHIS DEFENSE ARST RUNNING BACKSn=1019% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MEM FRONT-72 ROOMS · 34 PLAYERS92% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555514%10%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEARKANSAS STATE OFFENSESECONDARYMEMPHIS DEFENSE ARST PASS CATCHERSn=2042% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MEM SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM80% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
ARST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MEM
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+8
+2
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
ARST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MEM
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
ARST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MEM
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS63.7%
63.9%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS68.3%
58.5%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE2.4%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = ARST, ORANGE = MEM) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE