THU 21:00 ET|MEMORIAL STADIUM (CHAMPAIGN, IL)NONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP30|O/U54.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
23
1-2
34
52
10
80%
59
29
14.0
+1400
+26.5
HOME
42
2-1
64
71
60
21%
8
87
40.5
-8000
-26.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALUAB23—ILL42
CLOSED ILL -26.5TOTAL 54.5UAB COVERED · 65 POINTS · OVER
UAB
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
ILL
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=43
MARKET
TOTAL54.5
SPREADILL -26.5
IMPLIED — UAB14.0
IMPLIED — ILL40.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
52FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT7 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 7 positions on a 43-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
UABRECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs3.5-8.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-11.8
UAB won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ILLRECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs7.6-4.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+6.1
ILLINOIS won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERUABILLINOIS2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
LB100%Devin HightowerPORTAL · TULSA · 39% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTylan McNicholsLB · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCalvin PitcherLB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB99%Jevon JacksonRB · 44% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONIsaiah JacobsRB · 28% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSolomon BeebeRB · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DB84%Jeremiah VesselPORTAL · LIBERTY · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSirad BryantS · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONT'sai McDanielCB · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION9 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL83%Ezra OdinjorPORTAL · TOLEDO · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAmorie MorrisonDE · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEamon SmallsPORTAL · KANSAS · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION9 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE80%Elijah LaggPORTAL · PITTSBURGH · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONIverson HooksPORTAL · OREGON · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrandon Hawkins Jr.WR · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB75%Jalen KitnaQB · 75% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
OL60%JonDarius MorganOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrandon SnehOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLogan MooreOL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
LBShaun Myers · PORTAL ★3 · COLORADOMuaaz Byard · PORTAL ★3 · MIDDLE TENNESSEEMantrez Walker · PORTAL ★3 · COLORADO1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
RBRod Robinson II · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIAJa'Vin Simpkins · PORTAL ★3 · COASTAL CAROLINABam McReynolds · PORTAL ★3 · UL MONROE1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DBElijah Pratt · PORTAL ★3 · SMUGuylijah Theodule · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTHERN MISSDiezel Wilkinson · PORTAL ★3 · MONTANA5 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLMarlin Dean · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIA STATESterling Sanders · PORTAL ★3 · BOSTON COLLEGETylin Jackson · PORTAL ★3 · EASTERN WASHINGTON3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TETy Mims · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS STATEKJ Daniels · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMAPARTIAL
QBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
OLKeyon Cox · PORTAL ★3 · OREGON STATEPARTIAL
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · UAB
CARRIED COMPOSITE
22.212 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
35.545 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
13.37 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB46462810051 OF 5 GRADED
RB4747560103 OF 10 GRADED
WR/TE43432843228 OF 22 GRADED
OL44445241177 OF 17 GRADED
DL39392810139 OF 13 GRADED
LB3333360136 OF 13 GRADED
DB36364523208 OF 20 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE34th34
BLUE-CHIP RATIO9%42
RECRUITING CLASS#135 · 0/10 BC0
CLASS RANK TREND-37 · 3 CYCLES0
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 38 IN / 33 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
ILLBRET BIELEMA6TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5858
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4444
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
UABALEX MORTENSENFIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESUAB OFFENSEILL OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBUAB OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEILLINOIS DEFENSE UAB QUARTERBACKSn=50% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ILL DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 53 PLAYERS39% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLUAB OFFENSEFRONT-7ILLINOIS DEFENSE UAB OFFENSIVE LINEn=1759% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ILL FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS42% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBUAB OFFENSEFRONT-7ILLINOIS DEFENSE UAB RUNNING BACKSn=10100% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ILL FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS41% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554948%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEUAB OFFENSESECONDARYILLINOIS DEFENSE UAB PASS CATCHERSn=2257% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ILL SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM36% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
UAB
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ILL
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+13
−28
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
UAB
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ILL
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
UAB
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ILL
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS68.1%
55.7%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS58.9%
69.4%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.0%
3.6%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = UAB, ORANGE = ILL) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE